Snowshine

Next week - Boring weather

The West Midlands always seems to miss storms though.

Just realised that Lerwick (Shetland) has had more thunderstorms than my area has this year, and I am supposed to expect a minimum of 10 days of thunderdays.

The channel is killing those storms... one by one.

Well I'm back in the NSC. What a surprise!

Most of us are in the 'SLGT' convective warning zone today.

Estofex forecast for tommorow: Quite dissapointing really, not much chance of anything notable tommorow. Best event due on Friday night now

The North was obviously the hotspot for storms today - then again, I suppose those in Scotland deserve a good storm since they seem to be a rarity over there. As for the South, I got less than I expected, in fact nothing stormy - but most of Central/Eastern England didn't anyway. July always seems to be a good month for storms - last year being a great example. I suppose this is only day one, so there absolutely should be more to come for us in the South. Who knows, maybe another plume later in the month! Having said that, this year so far has been a disappointment - nothing in Spring and barely anything in June.

To conclude, today was extremely dissapointing storm-wise. Although we did hit a maximum of 33C today - not a record breaker here although only just behind. The potential for storms was there - the CAPE/LI was extremely high, but nothing came. Thursday or Friday had better make up for this lack of storms.

Dont depend on it. Everything is starting North from where we are. It's a shame, cause storms were forecast for my area.

Guessing your in Newcaste, not Leamington.

Ugh... Why are storms so random.

No graphics on Midlands Today when Shefali gave the weather in Kenilworth. Guessing it was a technical hitch because they always have them and she was standing to the left.

Its disappointing, considering the potential today was great for mega storms BUT the day has not yet ended.

It is a 'very low' risk, high impact yellow warning. This would mean: Some areas outside the warning zone the UK is likely to be at a very low risk, and lesser impact resulting in no warning. Q

Sunny and 34C here in Warwickshire - feels even higher than that though (37C). I'm quite surprised it hasn't been overcast today - although I can't stay outside for longer than a few minutes in the sun. Hopefully storms will end today.

Nothing much except 33C temperatures here... was hopeful of some severe isolated storms, but looks as if the far North will get most.

Why do I have a feeling that the Midlands may be one of the few areas not to get anything...

Not much going on at the moment - hopefully not for long though. What an amazing morning! Sun is out, already 23C.

The Midlands may just avoid every storm this week! What a surprise. But it may surprise us and get all the storms!

BBC issued their 'week ahead' forecast. There is only a small chance of storms next week - that being if the low shifts south. I feel like the storm potential has been downgraded - not much to expect on Wednesday or Friday.

Very good possibilities of storms - especially in the Midlands / East. Of course there will be downgrades to charts, but nevertheless it may be some of the best storms ever!

At the moment, the Midlands is the hotspot for upcoming severe storms - for once. London will probably get few while we will steal them all

There is a very low chance of these CAPE/LI values. The models tend to downgrade the values on the day, as mentioned above, so it may well be less than a third of the forecasted values and much less widespread. A good example would be that storm earlier this month, in which an Estofex (L2) warning was issued for, and the storm occured on the opposite side of the warning zone. In addition to that the CAPE/LI values dropped immensely. As for the heatwave, which may indeed trigger violent storms, Metcheck has stated: "In all fairness, this is the first time the new GFS has had an opportunity to handle a proper Spanish plume and therefore many forecasters are a little hesitant to go with exactly what the GFS is saying, but the ECM is also showing a large area of very warm air spreading from from Spain and France from Wednesday onward next week." "OK Metcheck, so it's a heatwave... what's new? Well, the GFS is suggesting maximum temperatures around the 35-37c (95-99f) mark on Thursday. The record for the UK in July is 36.5c and that could well be broken if the output is correct. Not just that, but the new GFS has been consistently under-estimating maximum temperatures recently." It may be too short-lived to be a proper heatwave, but any heat at those temperatures with those CAPE/LI values would easily trigger a few violent storms. I am pretty gobsmacked that according to Netweather it may feel like over 40 degrees, but really it would be the storms that we want, the heat is just the trigger - but the risk of storms are actually low next week.

Actual chance of hot weather (amazingly) seems higher! May be 27-30C across the region next Tuesday - but there is more than enough time for this to change, so I am certainally not getting my hopes up! To be fair, alot of years have at least one brief spell of very warm/hot temps, so I would not be too surprised if this actually happens. I feel a short-lived heatwave may be on the cards at some point this summer though, it has been a while since the last heatwave.