Snowshine

WHOA. THAT was MANIC!

Increase in activity! Yay!

One distant strike observed, assumably from Birmingham

Nothing in the Midlands - N.O.T.H.I.N.G

That storm may break in two, causing some of us fellow Midlanders to miss out on what seemed to be heading directly towards us.

Everything which forms over the Midlands always seems to go North. Dont get your hopes up. The storm could actually die over the Midlands and come back to life in Manchester or Leeds (up North). Its happened before.

Storm Shield may be broken is Shropshire.

C'mon storms, don't you dare avoid the Midlands!

The Midlands is doing poor stormwise at the moment. Hopefully things will pick up and NOT avoid the Midlands and head North.

TORRO UPDATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH All of England except the following: Wales SW England NW England North of England CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION All areas not within the STW except the following: Shetland

My Forecast: Storms will form across the Southern half of the UK, primarily in the English Channel, these will strengthen at first as they head inland but are expected to dissipate as they approach the Midlands before reorganising in Leeds - potentially as supercells, avoiding the Midlands, although perhaps with the exception of the far North. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across Wales, becoming more widespread and heading North. The North of England are likely to see homegrow storms later in the night, potentially supercellular bringing widespread distruption. London and the East of England may recieve the most severe storms in the country - more isolated but significantly more severe in nature, potentially spawning weak tornadoes. Scotland may be awoken to some severe storms throughout the night and into the morning, potentially bringing hail and CG lightning. The Midlands storm shield is stronger than ever tonight, so any storms are very likely to dissipate as they approach the South Midlands, perhaps the isolated storm for one area at most. The West Midlands is most likely to avoid any storms - as per usual when the storm shield is plugged in and on full power. Note: The weather always seems to do the opposite of what I predict though.

Metcheck really have some pretty useful features to check out: Storm Scanner Storm Satellite

Gosh, this puts me in-between the two bands of precipitation!

Of course. Shropshire is the far West of the West Midlands!

These storms had better be good... Metcheck The UK weather looks set to revert back to more traditional conditions next week as we say goodbye to the heat and storms of this week and hello to our old friend the jet stream who will feed in Atlantic low pressure systems and much fresher conditions. In fact, going by the forecast chart above, it could be a very early taste of autumn, or a return to spring (Ed. don't go there). Anyway, the weekend sees the transition to cooler and fresher conditions taking place, this potentially bringing some severe thunderstorms in places on Friday night before these clear away to the north on Saturday. However it's going to take a while for that fresher air to reach the southeast of England, so expect another very warm or hot day on Saturday before temperatures start to drop a touch from Sunday onwards and return to near normal levels next week with night times much more comfortable for sleeping - in fact the GFS model is suggesting possible ground frosts in the north later next week but that's probably taking the autumn theme a touch too far at this stage (Ed. Stop it!) Weather wise and although it's rather changeable outlook, we're not expecting conditions to be too bad. There will be some rain or showers at times along with some brisk winds, but the worse of these will generally be for the north and west of the country with the southeast continuing to see a fair amount of dry weather for much of the time. The north-westerlies are coming!

It really is - and it's due for 1am Saturday. Here is 11pm which is rather promising for the far South of the region too:

I'm pretty sure that signifies a marginal tornado risk.

That sure would be good if it were to be the outcome. This warning seems pretty accurate - although I would extend the severe risk (within the black line) further North.

Radar updated for good!

The radar shows this stuff is actually making an effort to avoid my area.

Latest convection updates: NETWEATHER - 2015-07-03 09:47:04 A shortwave trough is very evident on water vapour imagery this morning between the Azores and NW Iberia around 15W, this will continue NE today and will later engage high theta-w plume spread NW from France across southern/central Britain and Ireland this evening and overnight. Over-running of the shortwave and associated cooling aloft atop of warm moist plume will create steep lapse rates and strong instability in the warm sector between warm and cold fronts moving N tonight. GFS indicates up to 800-1200 j/kg MLCAPE towards Sern and Ern England in the warm sector spreading N across England and Wales, somewhat less further west towards Ireland. Large scale ascent created by approaching shortwave, cold front and falling heights will support storm development initially over SW approaches, The English western English Channel/N France before storms develop further east then spreading in a broad line N and NE across S England, Wales, Ireland, Midlands and eventually N England and N Ireland later in the evening and overnight. Storms will likely organise quickly, given 40-50 knts of 0-6km deep layer shear indicated with winds veering and strengthening sharply with height. This will support bowing line segments or even a few supercells, capable of producing large hail given fairly high CAPE values and also a damaging wind threat – so have issued a general SLIGHT risk across central, S and E England and Wales – where CAPE is highest. Winds backed easterly to the SWly flow aloft will also generate large Storm-Relative Helicity (SREH) values across S England later this evening, which suggests a tornado or two is not out the question if mesocyclones form – particularly before midnight when there maybe still sufficient diurnal warmth. Have included a hatched area rather than a higher risk here for the tornado threat, for now, as well as the risk of large hail and wind damage … given uncertainties over exactly where and when storms will form before moving NE across England and Wales later in the evening and overnight – the greatest uncertainty lies with eastward extent of storms given less forcing for ascent and more capping of the atmosphere towards SE England, despite more favourable severe parameters. METCHECK - Fri 3 Jul 2015: 10:00 BST (UPDATED) Another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread up from western Europe across England and Wales during Friday night and early on Saturday. With this airmass will come an increasing risk of thunderstorms developing during Friday night which could turn severe in places bringing torrential rainfall, large hail, gusty winds and a small chance of an isolated tornado but it is important to stress that many places will miss the storms altogether. There is higher confidence that an area of heavy and thundery rain will push north/north-eastwards across Wales and northern England during Friday night with some locally torrential downpours likely bringing an inch or more of rainfall in a short time which could lead to some localised flash flooding with the potential for over two inches of rain to fall from this event. Therefore these areas are now at high risk of seeing some potentially disruptive weather. For the Midlands, southern and eastern parts of England there remains some uncertainty over developments with the potential for intense thunderstorms to break out later this evening and into the night, but the location and intensity of any storms remains open to debate. Therefore it is likely that Flash Warnings will be issued here if needed and once developments become clear with the risk level remaining at moderate for now. This Weather Watch is likely to be updated again later today. ---------- TORRO "ESTOFEX forecast for Friday and Friday night. We'll be keeping an eye on things and will issue watches or discussions if/when storm development occurs and if conditions still look favourable for severe weather."

I am certainly not in favour of this update, but the Met Office are pretty inaccurate when it comes to storms so I shall see if the storms do decide to turn against me and go to the North, West and East of my region.

If this is the outcome it would be tragic for us Midlanders - literally storms to the North, West and East of us.

I really hope the storms head further East than the latest BBC forecast says so. It makes no sense though - all the warnings are for the South and South East of the reigon (e.g. Estofex)

Interesting storm forecasts for tomorrow. 1) Convective Weather Rapid warm air advection will develop across southern Britain through the evening hours, causing surface dewpoints to increase as a warm front lifts northwards. Meanwhile, the Atlantic upper trough will pivot NEwards, overlapping with the arrival of this plume during the evening, and providing sufficient lift. Consequently, expect thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours, initially fairly well-scattered across SW England, with activity expanding farther N and E as the evening progresses. With the approaching trough, DLS will strengthen with favourably-backed surface winds. This combined with 800-1,200 Jkg-1 MLCAPE suggests the potential for storms to become organised, perhaps into supercells capable of producing large hail. Forecast profiles suggest most storms will be elevated above 700mb, thus limiting the tornado risk, but if any storms do become rooted within the boundary layer, then there would be the risk of a tornado developing. There exists some uncertainty with developments farther east, namely across SE England and the Channel Isles. Capping may be too strong or upper forcing not strong enough to generate storms here (as per consistent signals in EURO4/UKV/ECMWF) while GFS is more keen to develop storms over northern France and run them northwards into CS/SE England. Given these uncertainties have opted to go for the general consensus for now (hence reducing probabilities towards the SE, the MDT placed where best agreement exists amongst most models) but cater for the risk of large hail and heavy rain (given PWAT 35-40mm) as the primary threats with any strong storms that may develop in central and southern Britain. In either case, mass ascent will see storms become more numerous as instability axis moves north, merging into an area of thundery rain and eventually losing most lightning activity during the early hours of Saturday as instability weakens and clears eastwards to the North Sea. It is likely that this forecast will need updating during Friday with threat level areas tweaked depending on convective trends. Have also included Ireland in a SLGT for activity that may occur largely in the post-frontal environment towards the end of the night with some marginal instability present. 2) Estofex A level 1 was issued for a greater part of Northern and Western France and the Southern United Kingdom for large hail and extreme precipitation. Elevated convection should move in from the south during the late evening and after midnight. There is a small risk of large hail and extreme precipitation with these storms. 3) Metcheck Following a brief cooler period, another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread up from western Europe across England and Wales during Friday night and early on Saturday. With this airmass will come an increasing risk of thunderstorms developing during Friday night which could turn severe in places bringing torrential rainfall, large hail, gusty winds and a small chance of an isolated tornado but it is important to stress that many places will miss the storms altogether. However where any storms do occur, rainfall totals of over an inch in an hour could bring a risk of localised flash flooding, especially in areas where it has been very dry recently with C-G strikes an additional hazard. This Weather Watch will be updated as developments become clearer with uncertainties currently existing over timings and areas most at risk. The convective weather (1) forecast seems promising to those in the south and Midlands (such as myself). Estofex (2) less promising though. Netweather/TORRO yet to issue forecasts if applicable.