TEITS

Torrential downpour at the moment.

Finding this all too much as it is still 30C here. These sorts of temps are great on a beach in Ibiza with a pint of stella. Stuck in Peterborough isn't the same!

Still 36C at RAF Wittering nr Peterborough at 6pm. Very unpleasant although the radar has cheered me up!

After a short shower we are now back to 36C here in Peterborough. I see Cambridge is 38C!!

My hotspot prediction is looking good as Cambridge is now 36C. 34C in Peterborough.

29C here. Massive increase of 4C within the last 30mins. For some reason RAF WIttering always lags behind other locations in E Anglia with regards to warming up. However this often catches up or even exceeds after lunchtime. Still think Cambridge is going to be the hotspot today with a temp of 39.5C.

Im not disputing their forecasting skills. My point is do wind speeds of 40-50mph really warrant warnings? These kind of wind gusts are common during the Autumn/winter months. If the Met Office keep issuing unnecessary warnings then the general public will become complacent and ignore warnings that are needed. This is my last comment on this matter and we shall have to agree to disagree.

During the so called storm the wind gusts were generally between 40-50mph in inland locations such as the midlands with the occasional gust between 50-60mph. I still maintain this does not make a storm in my opinion. We have to be careful because if we see warnings for trivial weather events i.e warnings for 2cm of snow from snow showers. What will happen is the general public will become complacent and no longer heed the warnings when something more significant occurs. By the way my comments were not just about the Met Office but generally across many platforms i.e newspapers, websites, forums etc.

Top gust of 58mph here with 50mph generally across the Midlands. Call me old fashioned but years ago this would of just been a windy day. Now we call these storms as we lean towards more american type forecasts. In my opinion a storm is when gusts inland widely reach 60-70mph with exposed locations hitting 80-90mph.

Gusts only around 40mph at the moment for my location and much of the Midlands. Obviously expecting this to increase but nothing exceptional.

Rather OTT. At 08.50 Exeter airport was reporting windspeeds of 19mph. Not what I would call wild winds!

Incredible to think I haven't even seen snow falling let alone lying snow. I believe the only time snow did fall was one morning around 5am but obviously I was in bed asleep. I started this winter by saying ignore background signals if the promise isn't being shown in the reliable timeframe. I also said I was going to ignore long range model output and stick with +144 with a passing glance to +240. Im glad I did and shall do so next winter.

Incredible to think that on the 28th Feb last year the max temp in Peterborough was -5C!

Thats the same as living in locations such as Egypt and moaning about the heat in summer. If you live in a location such as Edmonton in winter then you expect to be freezing. An incredible day today with the record being broken. Have to mention I also think we are looking at record breaking inaccurate long range forecasts. Never have I seen such inaccurate LRF's for this month after 40 years of following the weather!

One positive of this winter is the poor homeless haven't suffered as much as they would have if a big freeze occurred. Cannot imagine what it must be like to be homeless when temps are well below freezing.

Still very dry aswell. Only recorded 47mm of rain so far this year. Combined with the dryness of last year then we could do with some rain!

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

Morning Nick. This is without doubt the most disappointing winter I have ever known. I have witnessed snowless winters before, but the reality between what was suggested via background signals compared to possible record breaking warmth is incredible. What also stands out for me this winter is the lack of promising charts in F.I. Any potential has only appeared on a few runs before disappearing. Sadly I believe we shall pay for this. My initial thoughts are for a disappointingly cool/unsettled spring/summer this year. Only positive is im looking forward to the winters of 2019/20, 2020/21.

What I find rather interesting is when I joined this forum alot of focus was placed on the Atlantic SSTs which is understandable. However in recent years less focus seems to be placed on this with more and more teleconnections being used in forecasts. I actually think that since forecasts have become more technical on this forum the accuracy has decreased So I shall ask a few more questions. 1. Should we take a more basic approach at forecasting next winter by for example keeping a closer eye on the Atlantic SSTs? 2. As many on here (including myself) are biased to cold. Do you think that maybe we are looking at signals that point to cold too often? Should we also look at signals that might point to the contrary. Allowing your bias to skew your forecast is one of my biggest faults and I openly admit that! Good thread this by the way.

I disagree with this. Just been looking at the actual recorded SLP mean at Ittoqqortoormiit in the S of Greenland. Now during the cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010 the recorded SLP was between 1030-1040mb. The SLP during Dec 2018 was only around 1005-1010mb. During Jan into Feb the SLP has been generally around 1015. At no stage has the SLP ever get above 1020mb at this location for the entire winter. This makes sense to me as I always follow the Iceland GEFS SLP mean and here this has never got above 1020mb. So whatever the anomalies show, for me we have never seen any form of a GH.

Firstly its is widely considered true that there is a lag effect from solar Min and this may have implications for our winters over the next few years. Secondly ENSO, SSW, Solar, are only 3 variables amongst many others. We may search for the causes of this disappointing winter but I doubt we will find the answers! I said recently that when I joined this forum some considered classic cold spells a thing of the past. Look what happened next we had the incredible cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010. Lets not forget the incredible E,ly last year. I am as disappointed as everyone else with this winter. However lets not have a knee jerk reaction to it!

Whatever your opinion on teleconnections, many on here will be rather more sceptical about predictions of a looming cold spell next winter. However this is a good thing because nobody should take any medium/long range forecast as gospel whatever method is used. I have enjoyed reading the posts this winter especially from Catacol. I find his posts to be very informative but at the same time easy to understand.

You could be right and maybe these signals 20 yrs ago might of delivered a 1962-3 winter. However who knows the real reason and can we be sure that is the right answer?

Spot on with your assesment. The only positive is hopefully some members next winter won't take the background signals as gospel and use them as possible indicators on how the weather MAY turn out. I enjoy the posts from Catacol, GP and their posting style.

What is incredible with these is last nights 18Z GEFS ensembles had the coldest member in F.I at only -2C!! Considering the ECM I have increasing confidence that low pressure is going to track S into the Med with a developing -NAO. However what no member should currently have confidence in is whether the orientation of the block brings bitter N/E,lys to the UK. Such a fine margin between bitter E,lys and mild S,lys!