TEITS

Indeed that trend appeared yesterday and todays UKMO/ECM continue with this. I fully agree with Catacol with regards to confusion, coherence. Although I use a very different method I am finding predicting the outlook virtually impossible. We should all have a very open mind what to expect for the rest of this month.

Straw to clutch is we have seen the GFS Ops show a similiar trend at this timeframe.

I agree with the rest of your post. However my argument with the above is if we struggle to use the signals to make a forecast then how can we be sure we are correct in analysing how it went wrong. For example even last years beast from the east seems to cause some debate whether it was caused by the SSW or MJO or both? Even when I look back at the incredible Greenland High during Dec 2009,2010 I am not sure what allowed such blocking for Dec.

Yes but as you say in the wrong place. I do agree these set ups can quickly change as suggested by the 0Z GFS at +324. A S,ly can quickly become a N,ly.

What I find odd about the current output is generally speaking Febuary is a month when blocking is more likely. If you combine that with the background signals then the output is somewhat baffling and is more like what you expect in early winter. Only straw to clutch is +300 only takes us to mid Feb. Still despite remaining sceptical with these background signals I will not personally attack any member for bravely putting out a LRF by using them. I applaud any member making a LRF whether its using science, seagulls or seaweed!

I am a firm believer in the effects from solar max/min and this is why i am looking forward to the winters over the next few years. Back to the models and at least the ECM is an improvement on the GFS but to be honest the GFS is a shocker. Still remain unconvinced of this sudden momentum E of the general pattern i.e low in the Atlantic.

Chance later this evening the London area could see snow return as the front clears SE. The 06Z GFS seems to intensify the precip once again.

Glad to see some have seen snowfall. Absolutely nothing here as expected and still awaiting my first snowflake this winter. Hoping I may see some via showers later but mindful it could be marginal here due to the flow coming from the NE.

Just mention the 06Z GFS seems to strengthen the front once again with heavy snow developing this afternoon. I am yet to see a single snowflake this winter but pleased for those who have seen snowfall.

Morning from a very frustrated TEITS. Missed out on the snow on Tues and the front last night stalled around 20 miles to my S. So I am yet to see a single snowflake fall this winter!! Back to the models and im disappointed with the trend between +96 to +120. I mentioned yesterday about the low pressure tracking SE, ridge from Azores, potential E,ly. Well the models have flattened the ridge and the low in the Atlantic is much further E than some model runs suggested. Still I am not throwing the towel in just yet. I am not convinced the low at +72 is correctly modelled. Whilst an E,ly might appear unlikely I still believe we could yet see a sudden switch from the model towards an E,ly appearing at +144/+168.

The reason why we are seeing this potential change towards an E,ly is simple and what occurs on the Icon is exactly what I thought may happen. It is pretty clear these models have a bias. We only need to look at this weeks events to see the models intially are reluctant to track SE. Look at the low that hit France on Tues, this was modelled much further N. What we are seeing is the models backing off from a mobile flat W,ly. The low in the Atlantic is being held, further W, shortwaves are tracking SE, ridge from the Azores linking to the high to the NE. If the ICON went further we would see the blocking to our NE becoming establised with an E,ly over the UK. Eventually the low in the Atlantic would weaken and disrupt. However a few hurdles yet. We need to see this on a consistent basis from all the models. The next step is can this block extend far enough W to affect the UK. If so then the cold upper temps, snowfall will follow.

Or a trend setter! Seagulls have been spotted today in Peterborough for the first time this winter!

Very pleased with todays trend because its what I thought may happen several days ago. The irony is the Met O have been predicting an E,ly for such a long time and even last night I watched a Met O video on Youtube and Alex Deakin said "No sign of an E,ly". I wonder what he/they think today?? This isn't just the ECM because the Icon is now heading in that direction. Still I shall keep my feel on the ground as history tells me to do so when it comes to an E,ly.

Slowly we are getting towards what I have been thinking. Not the beast yet but the building blocks are coming together!

My opinion is completely opposite. As expected the momentum towards an E,ly is gaining strength and even the ECM has finally seen the light. The flat, mild, unsettled pattern is slowly being replaced by the main low pressure being held back in the Atlantic, shortwaves edging SE, pressure rising to the NE. The GEFS ensembles are now smelling the coffee. I commented on the lack of cold runs in the UK and Europe but clearly this isn't the case anymore. Excellent +168 UKMO above.

Indeed mate. Remember back in Feb 2005 when at one stage the models were predicting the dreaded Euro HP which actually reversed into a whooping Greenland HP. Normally we always expect downgrades when it comes to cold spells but sometimes the reverse happens and as you say there is no meterological reason why this cannot happen. I can see why the Met O have continued with their extended outlook.

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

I am sticking with my earlier thoughts with regards to the medium range. Next week is far from resolved and still believe what tonights GEM shows remains a possibility. Just add a very unpleasant atmosphere on here tonight from some members! I am very sceptical of these so called "Background signals". However my gripe is with this forecasting method rather than any members who use them and post their forecasts on here.

That is exactly the part I am currently watching closely. I may very well be wrong but im spotting the signal of an end to the sliding lows as upstream it becomes much more amplified than currently progged. That is especially true of the flat as a pancake ECM. My instincts are telling me we could see high pressure to become centred from Scandinavia to Iceland. All of which occurring within the relatively reliable timeframe of +168! Could the beast be finally let out of its cage?????

Have to say at the moment the locations favoured are N Midlands/ W Midlands/Wales. The least favoured dare I say is E Anglia/SE. This is simply due to several factors. The low on Tues was always likely to go SE of the UK and this has proved to be the case. We are dependant on snowfall via the front moving SE. This is likely to fizzle out as it heads SE. End of the week/Weekend. Most could see snow, however the locations I mention could see it remain as snow. This is due to the flow becoming ENE,ly and the warming effects of the N Sea will reduce the risk of snow for many E areas and this includes N England (except hills). The medium range continues to intrigue me and the outlook isn't going to be as flat and mild as the ECM suggests in my opinion. Big changes likely to occur in the medium range over the next 48hrs. Watch this space!!!

Could be the start of a change in the medium range. See my earlier post!

I am beginning to think I might of been wrong this morning with the medium range. Compare 12Z GFS with a couple of days ago for the 4th Feb. Are we about to see a change within the reliable timeframe of a continuation of the cold? May I dare to suggest the fabled Greenland High may even develop? At the moment im clueless with regards to snowfall this week and clueless what happens afterwards.

Rather silly post if you don't mind. I might be negative with regards to the next say 10 days. However +384 only takes us to the 12th Feb. if we have learn't one thing this winter, It doesn't matter what the long term signals say, long range model runs, we simply cannot forecast beyond 10 days. So that leaves plenty of winter left and in my experience the last 2 weeks of Feb have always been more likely to produce cold spells then say beginning of Dec.

Lets hope your right because at the moment the GEFS out to +384 suggest the opposite for much of Europe & UK. See my previous post on the GEFS 850hpa means across various locations. The theme at the moment is to keep the very cold air bottled up in the Arctic. The GFS Op is a good example. Based on current output we would be waiting till mid Feb!

That is because based on this run E Anglia/SE are at greatest risk. The snow risk is as a cold front clears SE. Now this is predicted to be a rain to snow event but due to the timing, the front arrives later in the day for the locations i mention.