TEITS

Looking beyond the snowfall prospects this week and overall im disappointed with the overall trend from the model output. I know a large landmass can see quick change in temps but im disappointed with the general lack of cold across much of Europe being predicted in the medium range. Here are a few GEFS ensembles across Europe. Hoping to see a change because otherwise the delay of the type of cold spell we are all hoping for will be until Mid Feb!

Just add my thoughts with regards to snowfall next week. This is based on a combination of all model runs and instinct. Tues low pressure system. Sadly im not convinced this will affect much of the UK. At the moment I believe this will mainly affect France with the small chance of extreme S counties. End of the week. Expecting this to continue to track further SE than currently modelled. Just add ensembles for the low on Tues are in my opinion useless.

Back in Dec I said "Background Signals" mean nothing unless the benefits are being shown in the reliable timeframe in the model ouput. I said exactly the same last winter aswell, although I recieved alot of flak for saying so. This winter so far has proved this to be very true. The biggest hurdle for weather forecasting beyond 7 days is simply due to the chaos theory and even with the massive increase in computing power they struggle to resolve this. When I think back to the 1980s and those countryfile weekly forecasts you have to say we haven't progressed very much if you compare computing power back then and now. Fair enough we have seen an improvement in short term forecasts and maybe 7-10 days but thats about it in my opinion.

The way I see it is this. When you have a very strong, organised Polar Vortex then this turbo charges the Jet Stream. A SSW weakens and disrupts the Polar Vortex and effectively puts the brakes on the Jet Stream. However this is only one jigsaw piece amongst many others. Obviously the other jigsaw pieces haven't been favourable for us just yet. Thanks to everyone for your comments. I was concerned about misleading members as I know how passionate everyone is.

Apologies to everyone because at the moment the output isn't going as I expected especially with regards to the low pressure. I fully expected this to clear SE rather than hang around like a bad smell. So sorry if I mislead anyone. Still on a positive note +384 only takes us to the 10th Feb. My expectations are lower than some on here. For example if say mid Feb we had a decent 7 day cold spell with ice days and snowfall then I personally would be happy with that. The winter of Jan 87 was mainly mild/unsettled but still remember than winter fondly due to the 7 day cold spell in Jan. Still looking at the scatter from the 1st Feb im not going to throw the towel in on this current period.

Now I have more time I shall give you some examples of why im delighted with the output. I shall also explain why the models were wrong at +72 to +96 and how they have changed for the better. First of all the low below is now heading SE. A few days ago the models did the usual of being reluctant to send this SE. This is a typical bias of the models when a low pressure comes up against a high pressure in this locality. The presence of this high pressure is important further along. The next low is the trigger because this is also heading SE. As it does so pressure rises to our N and is reinforced by the high pressure to our NE. The end result is more of a NE,ly than E,ly at this stage and it depends how far S the low goes. The SLP ensembles for Iceland/Oslo say it all really compared to a few days ago. Only a few days ago the Iceland SLP mean was only 1008mb and now stands 1022mb and is likely to become 1030mb. The drop on the 29th is when the low pressure moves SE. Oslo SLP is even more impressive increasing to 1030mb with solid agreement except GEFS control at the end. Only caution I would advise is whether the GFS is over doing the blocking and if the low does not head far enough SE. At this stage im not concerned. All of this is backed with the Cambs ensembles at -7C!

Nothing has changed my outlook. Still believe an E,ly will arrive for the start of the month. I heard a BBC forecast say yesterday "No sign of any E,ly anytime soon" I thought to myself we shall see about that. I continue to have a serious distrust of the output especially from +120 onwards and this is with regards to the operationals. The ensembles will be even more useless in my opinion. Remember a beast from the east never occurs from +240 to +0. These always seem to appear much earlier i.e +96 to +168. No problem holding my hands up if im wrong. Sorry this post isn't exactly scientific but my approach has always been instinctive.

See my previous posts because the 12Z GEM is exactly what I have been referring to. Brace yourselves as we're about to set off on the rollercoaster again!

Compare the difference between todays 06Z and yesterdays with regards to how much further W the High pressure is!

A change is occurring! Looks like my gut instincts might be correct. What led me to this was a UKMO yesterday and how it handled the low coming up against the block to the NE and to me it appeared unrealistic. What we are seeing is the low being sheared SE with the remnants moving N. This is in contrast to previous modelling of the low simply moving NE i.e UKMO past few runs. This is typical modelling when low pressure comes up against a block to the NE and as the time frame comes closer the pattern backs W and lows disrupt SE. The ramifications of this is it means we remain cold and when the next low moves SE, we have a colder pool of air to tap into from the NE due to the high pressure being further W. Also due to the timeframe further W movements from the models is possible.

Following on from my post last night. Im still not convinced the models are correct at even +96 to +144 let alone much further on. This is with regards to how the low at +96 interacts with the blocking to the NE. Compare the difference between say the UKMO & GEM at +144.

Just compared yesterdays 12 ECM with todays and all im going to say is I shall hold fire before making any predictions. At the moment im not impressed with how the models are performing. If I had more time I would explain but im off to bed.

After my positve post yesterday the 0Z Iceland SLP ensembles have zapped my enthusiasim. So we remain on the generally cold side. However any HLB seems to be disappearing or being put back which is the story of this winter.

Happy with that. Sums up my earlier post nicely.

Quick summary from me. Appears to me the models were too quick in removing an E,ly and we shall see an E,ly flow albeit brief and nothing noteworthy. Thereafter a brief warm up which is clearly shown on the 0Z GEFS ensembles. A very quick return to a N,ly flow and thereafter a strong signal that low pressure will finally sink SE and we shall be in a NE/E,ly flow. Around end of the month/start of Feb a strong signal that HLB will keep the UK in a cold/very cold NE/E,ly flow. So mostly cold but any significant cold/snowy spell remains towards end of the month/early Feb. I shall finally add that exactly a year ago today on my birthday I was in intensive care and nearly died from Pneumonia. I no longer get so excited at the high and lows of following the models because I realised there is far more important things than snow!

I just checked this on radar/Sat and the low appears to be centred exactly where the 18Z GFS has this i.e Tennessee

Simply put because it's clear (even to myself) the effects the SSW is having and likely to have as we head into Feb. I have witnessed many failed E,lys in the past. However this isn't one of those situations when the failed E,ly is being replaced by a postive AO and well established Polar Vortex. Appears to me the AO could well become strongly negative and its more of a case of when rather than if the cold spell we all crave arrives.

Incredible N Hemisphere chart. Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.

Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

Wow what an exciting time at the moment. Putting aside the details i.e snow/how cold, which personally I cannot be bothered with. The fact remains the models are suggesting a trough in the Med with high pressure between Iceland extending into Scandi. The end result is below average temps in the UK. However it is inevitable you will see details change with regards to temps/precip. You simply cannot expect -15C upper temps, constant streamers in every run! The pick of the day for me is the GEM. Absolute classic old school 1947 style cold spell. For anyone who didn't know the classic old school cold spells had alternating N,lys&E,lys as high pressure alternated between Greenland/Scandinavia. Worth mentioning that if the GEM is correct then during that switch from E,lys to N,lys then you will see a brief increase in the 850hpas. I mention this for those looking at the ensembles.

The model output in recent days makes me thankful of my new approach of only really focussing on the short range. As someone else said I miss those ceefax days! The GEFS Iceland SLP ensembles say it all really because one run the mean is at 1020mb followed by 1008mb. This obviously has a knock effect on our 850hpa ensembles. This uncertainity only highlights how impossible it is to produce an accurate LRF for the UK, whatever method is used. I fully expect the flip flopping from the models to continue. The only negative comment I will say is since late Dec we have been waiting and yet here we are with todays output. Maybe something unknown to us is preventing the UK from experiencing a decent cold spell via blocking to our N. Seen this before where the signals point towards cold but the reality was different. Still I shall finish on a postive note. Regardless of the Strat/Teleconnections the chances of blocking and a UK freeze is always more likely in the month of Feb compared to Dec/Jan. So with this in mind and the following SSW I would be amazed if a cold spell didn't occur next month.

Only just seen the 06Z. I haven't viewed each ensemble member but im disappointed with the Iceland SLP mean. Rather than increasing with each run we have seen a drop of around 8mb from 1018mb to 1010mb. Basically the chance of blocking to the N has decreased for the end of Jan. However this is only one run and shall await the 12Zs.

Remain very pleased with the output today. My advice to members is this. An ever increasing signal of the holy grail i.e blocking towards Greenland and towards the NE (Svalbard/Scandi) is gathering momentum towards the end of the month. The 26th of Jan seems to be a date standing out for me. Prior to this any snowfall should be considered a bonus. BTW the Iceland SLP mean keeps increasing. We have gone from 1010mb to 1020. Probably start reaching 1030mb by the end of the week!

As many know I like to look at the Iceland SLP ensemble mean. The mean at the end is now 1018mb with some members nearly hitting 1040mb. Shall keep checking to see if the trend towards the Greenland High continues over the next few days.

Nothing wrong with being cautious. Experience of following potential cold spells since I joined this forum has taught me this. The models are indeed an improvement and the ECM would produce very low temps/snowfall. However synoptically speaking the real tasty charts showing blocking remain in F.I at the moment. For example if the 0Z ECM went beyond +240 then for the last days of Jan the potential blocking/cold spell would be amazing! Overall delighted with the output without getting over excited.