TEITS

If I was honest so far what the Met O/BBC/Models have forecast compared to the reality has been very different for my location. So with that in mind I am sticking with the radar only. All I can say is the peak of snow shower activity for your location and much of this region will be today/tonight. The risk lessens tomorrow from the SE of this region as we pick up a ESE,ly. Still expecting snow showers for N parts of this region till tomorrow afternoon.

Woke up to a dusting but radar suggests plenty to come around my location.

Looking at the radar it seems much heavier snow showers are now developing across N Norfolk.

Looking great at the moment for those in the Peterborough area. Snow showers from tonight into tomorrow. Chance of the heavier snow hitting our area during Monday night/Tues. More snow showers on Wed. Heavy snow end of the week with a greater chance of this being snow than freezing rain. Basically at the moment the ideal location!

Worth highlighting the risk on Tues of this system bringing heavy snow to W parts of E Anglia. However a low risk at the moment as it may only affect E Midlands instead.

Latest Euro 4 looks great for this region especially E Midlands.

Indeed John and my focus is purely just on the next few days. How often do we see upper temps of -13C, max temps of -2C, dewpoints as low as -10C? The fact this is occurring end of Feb/early March is even more staggering. Personally if the cold spell came to an end by next weekend I don't think I will be that bothered. I think some people tend to look back at winters in the past and remember weeks of cold/snow when inactual fact the duration was much shorter. Obviously the likes of 47,63 were the exception. Here comes the bank of snow into the E. Perrer

I have been watching this feature for a while. Still some uncertainity with the exact track of this. Firstly during monday night a band of snow will move W across NE England/E Scotland. Also another area of snow will move SW hitting locations such as Yorks/Humberside and then tracking SW into the Midlands. However at the moment I have a feeling Lincs/Humberside/N Midlands will be the bullseye.

Just commenting on what the models are showing. A ESE,ly isn't a very good direction for the far SE due to the very short sea fetch. Even im hoping for a change in the flow from the model output towards a more E,ly with less of a S,ly element.

ECM OP was much warmer than the mean but still an increase of 5C compared to 0Z. On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

I really do not understand some people at times. This week we are likely to see plenty of snow showers, upper temps of -15C, max temps below freezing and all this in end the of Feb/March! Some of us may very well see a return of less cold weather after a period of snow at the end of the week but personally I would be satisfied with this coming week.

Very true to a certain extent. However we can use the models to see the general flow of the E,ly that is being predicted. For example I know for a fact a wash streamer will not develop from a direct E,ly or ESE,ly. I require a ENE,ly or NE,ly. I also know that if the flow does veer towards a ESE,ly then this favours those locations with a longer sea fetch across the N Sea and places such as Kent are likely to be drier. Don't forget there is a difference between bands of snow showers and a streamer. These often get mixed up on this forum.

Good to see snow showers appearing on the Euro 4. Whilst some are understandably looking at the end of next week. My focus is more towards the snow shower potential during this week. Something I mentioned a few days ago is showing on the model output and that is the slight variations to the E,ly flow. Note on Mon the flow veers towards a ENE,ly. Changing to a direct E,ly on Tues. ESE,ly on Wed. Due to this the distribution of showers will vary and whether you live in NE Scotland or SW England nobody is immune from snowfall next week.

Insane depth of cold. One thing that stands out during the 1987 cold spell was the incredible icicles having off our school roof. With these low temps/dewpoints I imagine some impressive icicles will return next week!

Yes its something I have noticed over the last few runs. This isn't surprising and I expect this to only increase as we get closer to next week.

Wash Streamer appearing on the 0Z GFS. At this stage the streamer is likely to be more W based streamer moving into locations such as Leicestershire and the rest of the E Midlands.

I shall say it now the UKMO is probably the best run I have seen since I joined this forum many years ago. Everything is perfect, the position and orientation of the high, strength of the E,ly flow, sheer depth of the cold pool to our E. On a different note I really hope our local councils take some action in helping the homeless next week.

You are right all outcomes should be discussed in this thread. One problem though none of the models are showing a failed E,ly!

Sorry but posts like this are getting on my nerves. I said about 3 or 4 days ago that Mon-Tues was the likely days the cold air will arrive. Unless my eyes are decieving me then the 06Z is showing between -11 to -13C on Monday for the E. We are bound to see slight variations i.e some runs being 1 to 3 C colder, cold air arriving 24hrs earlier or later. However I have hardly seen any runs that bring the cold air in on Saturday? I cannot believe some of the negative comments in this thread recently. Synoptically this in my opinion is a once in 10 yr event. Maybe even 1 in 20yr event if you look at how rare E,lys have been since the 1980s.

My tip for newcomers to this forum who want to know if its going to snow is this. Step 1 ignore most precipitation charts on the ECM/UKMO/GFS. Step 2 When the period of interest is within 48hrs then use the model below. This has always been my preferred choice. http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/21/basis00/ukuk/pslv/18022300_2100.gif Step 3 When the day of interest arrives, which at the moment appears to be Monday, then head over to the regional threads where everyone will be following the radar/Sat. Personally I am going to be purchasing the NW radar but I shall be waiting till Sunday as I don't want to jinx the cold spell!

Personally I feel the above is a very fair assessment of the current situation based on the output I have seen.

If everything goes according to plan then the distribution of snow showers is likely to alter into next week. During this Saturday the continental air arrives via a ESE,ly which then becomes a direct E,ly on Sunday/Monday. During the middle of next week the high will move towards Greenland and when this happens the flow is more likely to veer towards a ENE,ly or even NE,ly. I cannot stress enough to members how the slightest change can alter the distribution of snow showers and it is this detail you want to look at nearer the time. I recall in Dec 2010 how Lincoln recieved incredible amounts of snow and yet I recieved nothing. This was due to a slight change in the model output which mean't less of a N,ly element to the E,ly and more a direct E,ly. Your local knowledge of your weather will help in these situations. For example I know I require the slightest N,ly element to an E,ly for my location to benefit.

A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z. If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high. Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.

Maybe you should read some of my posts then. I made reference to the SSW only this morning.

Very surprised at some of the comments this morning. Let me begin with the ECM and say this model has always been less progressive in bringing the very cold upper temps from the E. If we look at the +168 to +192 the cold arrives between Monday night and Tues which is exactly what I said yesterday morning about the ECM. Now lets move onto the placement of the high. I can understand some of the comments this morning from our members in the N of the UK. However a subtle shift N or S of the high can make a signficant difference with regards to temps/snowfall. It is worth mentioning though that historically in these situations the further SE you are the more likely is is to be colder/snowier. If we look back to previous classic E,lys, locations such as NW Scotland have remained less cold with a abundance of sunshine. Lets just forget about snowfall for a minute and the fact its nearly March and just enjoy the wonderful synoptics being shown. This in my opinion is a once every 10 year event and anyone who has anything negative to say about this mornings output needs to appreciate this. The SSW has it seems made the planet spin in the opposite direction and although we know that isn't the truth, the way the weather systems are behaving you would think that is the case. Just look at these ECM ensemble means!