TEITS

Sometimes operationals can lead the way with the ensembles slowly following. A simple summary from me of the current output is underwhelmed. We are still looking at a brief N,ly on the 17th followed by a possible marginal snow event on the 19th via a sliding LP. However any significant cold spell remains in distant F.I and we are now looking towards the end of Jan. Blocking towards Greenland/Iceland looks to be elusive until the end of Jan when just maybe this might occur. However if only I had pound for every GFS run that has shown a 1070mb GH at +300 plus!!

I admit the 06Z has improved my mood mate. The 06Z is a good example of how you don't always need mega blocking to deliver the goods. Infact the 06Z reminds me of Feb 1979. I was only 8 yrs old but an E,ly developed that bought so much snow it made 1987 look like a dusting of snow!

Sorry to be a misery but I shall believe it when it appears at a sensible timeframe. Been here far too long and seen posts like above too many times. i continue to see a pattern of turning colder but not excessively so. Snowfall chances remain but will be very marginal because of the lack of deep cold. I still only see weak, temporary ridges of HP and not robust blocking in the key areas. If we are to see a change to the type of cold spell we are all hoping for, then we may have to wait until the very end of Jan into early Feb. Again I will only believe it at +144.

I haven't had chance to view the models for a few days but im disappointed with the output. Turning colder? Yes Chance of snow? Yes Possible weak blocking bringing temporary colder N/E,lys? Yes Chance of robust blocking bringing prolonged cold spell? NO chance! For the next 2 weeks all I see is brief outbreaks of relatively cool/cold weather with greatest chance of snow for the N and higher ground. Problem is no signicant blocking is likely to develop in the key areas that will bring a prolonged cold spell. The ECM is obviously very different but how many times do we see potential in the latter frames of the ECM?? Answer too many times and I always distrust the ECM especially at +216/+240.

For a change a postive post from me. I shall start with a negative and say anyone expecting more than a brief NW,ly before the 21st Jan will be disappointed. However on a positive I can see a trend emerging on the SLP Iceland ensembles. Based on these I have noted an increase of members suggesting increasing heights developing towards this area from around the 21st Jan onwards. So whilst winter will not arrive before this date, signs suggest our first proper cold spell will arrive for the last week of Jan.

My main problem with this is if you look at the SLP ensembles this doesn't look to be the case. Aberdeen SLP suggests pressure falling, possibly gales by the 17th with a deep LP. No indication of blocking over Greenland over the next 7-10 days. My punt is slowly becoming more unsettled with only brief colder NW,lys.

I really do not want to repeat what I said last winter so I shall make this quick. My doubt with teleconnections is due to 3 reasons. We do not fully understand them and secondly and more importantly how these interact with each other. Finally the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours is currently impossible. I simply do not believe we can make an accurate long range forecast for the UK. Finally I do not place all my faith in the models. As I stated before Xmas, I am now just focussing on upto +144 with a passing glance at the ECM to +240. My logic is simply due to many years on this weather forum and becoming tired of all these promising background signals that amount to nothing.

Nothing to do with luck. If we do not see any cold weather this winter then obviously the variables that dictate our climate were not favourable and those variables were misinterpreted. Very disappointing output. Just when we were hoping we may see some form of blocking/Cold Spell to hit the UK around Mid Jan, the models are currently suggesting the reverse with an unsettled outlook looking likely with gales. The most disappointing aspect is I see nothing that suggests any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland, infact the complete reverse!

The change to a colder pattern via N,ly outbreaks continues to look likely from mid month. However disappointingly nothing to suggest any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland/Iceland. I always look at the Iceland SLP ensembles and these sum it up for me.

I didn't share the excitement of yesterdays output hence why I never bothered posting. The E,ly shown was never going to be sustained or especially cold. If you're seeking cold & snow then look to the North from around the 16th Jan onwards!

I agree 100%. Despite not posting much I have followed the posts on here and also frequently viewed the model output. The reaity is, despite the continous "excellent background signals" being posted, the lack of any decent cold model output is striking. We haven't even seen much eye candy in distant F.I i.e +300 which is unusual in itself. As I said last winter and recently, any cold signals mean nothing if this isn't being shown in the model output. I respect those who use forecasting methods such as teleconnections but remain sceptical at our ability to use these to make an accurate forecast for a tiny island such as ours. We simply cannot make an accurate LRF using science and firmly believe a farmer has as much chance of being accurate using nature. At the moment I see nothing that supports deep cold with HP being centred close to the UK for the next couple of weeks.

Pretty clear to me that any charts beyond +168 might aswell be thrown in the bin at the moment. This is because the models (except GFS) are swinging towards the high pressure building further NE than expected and thus possbily bringing a much colder NE,ly flow. At the moment the chances of a much colder NE,ly are increasing but still changes need to occur for this to bring snow showers. If the high continues to be upgraded i.e building further NE then this impacts what happens afterwards. What I mean by this is low pressure could go underneath the high pressure rather than over the top sinking the high.

Merry Christmas to you all. I haven't posted in this thread since the start of winter for the simple reason the model output has been rather boring. I hope this changes after Chrismas! I am adopting a new approach this season of only looking upto +144 with only a brief glance at the ECM +168 to +240 charts. Main reason being its less time consuming and less stressful. With regards to the SSW. I shall only take note if the effects are beneficial for the UK at a sensible timeframe. Been on this forum long enough to know that "promising signals" do not always deliver.

Thanks GP. Certainly mouth watering prospects during this month and your post has certainly made me very happy.

Nasty storm cuirrently sweeping through Peterborough. Even more intense than yesterdays and not expected.

5 miles N of Diss it has already reached 31.4 at RAF Tibenham.

Unsurprising as it was already 28C at Norwich at 10am. I reckon somewhere between Thetford, Diss, Norwich, Dereham will reach 37 or 38C today. Currently 28C here at the moment.

Fully expect storms to develop shortly as convection has really began to kick off here with towering cumulus.

I sincerely hope this is wrong as today is hot enough!

Incredible temp rise here this morning. At 9am only 20C and lagging behind other hotspots across E Anglia. However we are now 30C, Humidity 51%, dewpoint 18.5C. The skies remain hazy as they have been all morning.

It was the same here but now we have glorious sunshine. Temps are responding as we are currently 23.7C.

I think you are yet again misunderstanding what was posted by myself and what actually fell on Saturday. The point I am only trying to make is the HIrlam, Arpege, Met O warning all suggested heavy snowfall during Saturday in the form of a Thames Streamer developing. Now all I said was the Euro 4 only suggested light snowfall. This is what occured on Saturday with many parts of Kent and S&E London seeing little in the way of snow because the streamer didn't develop. Personally I am still surprised the Met O had an amber warning for the SE because the model runs I looked at didn't really support the idea. I would appreciate the input from members in the area in question to see how much snow they did see. I think I am right in saying some people in Kent didn't see anything on Saturday night. As for belittling people. I simply corrected an error you made when assuming 5mm of precip would instantly mean 2 inches of snowfall.

I have no idea what you are on about. I said in the MOD thread that the Euro 4 suggested little snow for the far SE. Guess what many in the SE thread were moaning because the Thames Streamer failed to develop and many especially in the Kent area only witnessed light snowfall. This despite the amber warning. So in actual fact I was proved correct because the far SE i.e Kent didn't see anywhere near the snowfall predicted by some. I never knew merely posting a chart from a model run would cause such aggro. I apologise that I didn't have enough time to post every single frame from every single model run for you.

Large green blob about to hit Peterborough. No blades of grass showing now.

What makes me laugh is I watched a BBC forecast just 30mins ago repeating the amber warning for the SE. Frustratingly I said in the model discussion thread yesterday that I expected the far SE to only see light snowfall and sadly some member decided to get into a petty argument. None of the models that I looked at supported the idea of an amber warning.