TEITS

Sorry but I can't help but laugh at that chart. You sound more like Enforcer every day

I haven't read the report in full yet and usually steer clear of these threads but I shall quickly put my points across. First off I do believe humans are to blame for GW and yes GW is very real which only a fool would deny IMO. Where im always cautious and this is why I avoid these threads is the predicted increase of temps!. I don't believe any computer model can simulate our climate for the next 100 years. Just look at all the factors that could make a difference. First off is the El nino, some people believe that continued GW will cause a permanant El Nino event which could have repurcussions on the Amazon rainforest by causing a drought and removing the effects the rainforest has in absorbing Carbon Dioxide thus increasing GW. Then we have the ocean's cirulations and the much documented effects that melting ice could have on the gulf stream. Speaking of ice some people suggest that GW will actually increase snowfall over the Artic regions!. You may laugh but even cloud cover could make a difference to temps globally because could GW cause greater cloud cover over the globe and what type of cloud cover could this be because some types trap the warmth whereas some clouds actually reflect this. What we do need to do is take action and I mean this globally because it is unfair to leave this for future generations.

Your all going to think im mad posting this considering the uncertainity but the GEFS control run has come up with what I class the best synoptic chart you could ever wish. This is why im so excited about this current cold spell looming this week because the trend for Feb looks very exciting indeed IMO. If someone asked me what my thoughts on Feb are it would be this. After this weeks cold spell the Atlantic finally moves in on it's second attempt which finally brings less cold air into the UK. Beyond this an unsettled, cool spell due to LP being centred over the UK rather than tracking N between Scotland and Iceland. The S would be cool & unsettled but further N rain with snow on hills looks likely as PM is more likely than TM. The GFS actually shows this pattern and take note how after this weeks cold spell the Jet remains to the S rather than the N of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26414.png The trend thereafter is where it gets interesting because I believe a typical negative NAO pattern is going to become established with recent GFS runs indicating N blocking being a feature from mid Feb onwards. Now onto the best synoptic charts you will ever see. The reason these charts are so superb isn't just because extremely cold air is across the UK, or that HP stretches from Siberia to Greenland or is it due to large snowfall amounts. No the other reason is because this synoptic set up would bring a prolonged cold spell with the scenario of alternating N/NE/E,lys that could last weeks!. I know this post does seem silly but who knows we could be saying in March what a wonderful winter it has been

I shall have to save some money to purchase NW Extra for a year. Im beginning to think that come the day in question we would all be better off using other members reports to decide what will fall out of the skeis. Like Nick Sussex says someone 50 miles S of me could see rain whilst I see blizzards (I wish). Having said this I would still head for Aberdeenshire to see the full force of this cold spell.

GFS has different ideas about snowfall. Look at WIB location. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png Cause of such low temps?? Snowfall and clear skies!.

Here we go Jed. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

No I don't agree. It's been a dreadful winter with nothing to look forward to if you prefer cold and im of the opinion that if you can't get excited at these charts then you shouldn't bother following the models. These synoptics don't happen every week unfortunately so I say ramp it up!.

Sorry JS can't see that mate. There is a greater chance of Sophie Howard, Jordan, Girls Aloud asking me to marry them

Sorry I mean't to add this. The focus appears to be on NE Scotland at the moment but I feel this will change over the next few days because I believe the LP will take a more SE,ly track and the HP will ridge further NW introducing a stronger E,ly for other regions also which would mean the snow showers risk could focus on NE England also.

You haven't sent me a PM with the winning Lotto numbers

Wonderful 12Z with the chance of a channel low but im not going to concentrate on that but something else which IMO could bring much larger snowfall totals!. Anyone living in NE Scotland must be ecstatic with this run because you would see huge snowfall totals from the charts below. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png These charts would develop plenty of snow showers moving in from the N sea which would spread far inland. If I was wishing to go snow chasing Aberdeenshire would be my choice

Couldn't resist but post this chart before I go. -31C and the cold air is moving this way This is what makes this period exciting for me because the longer term is just as interesting as the short term and is much better than rain preceeded by snow and then endless mild zonality.

What a lovely way to start the day. Lovely crisp sunshine early in the week, very low min temps, possible snow events and this could all be upgraded!. Even in the longer term it doesn't look exactly mild and like I said last night N Blocking could well dominate during this month. Whatever you do make sure your central heating works correctly because I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations record -10C or below!. You know the models are good because WIB has gone AWOL on this thread :o . See you later for the next episode of model watch which could star the beast himself

At first I thought those at elevation would be preferred but since the Scandi HP has got involved this is a different situation. The snow risk could well extend for E areas also due to the HP bringing lower temps due to the SE,ly and of course lower Dew point temps. But due to the HP will the precip even reach us??

Friday could be fun. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1144.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1148.gif Temps around 0C, DP around -2C, Sub -5C 850 hpa!.

:lol: --> QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 12:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Fascinating GFS 06Z up to 90 hours. I'm really beginning to think we *could* be on the verge of a major cold spell from the east.Wonderful to watch isn't it. What with the ECM output and now the GFS currently continuing the trend of rising heights, throw in the UKMO this makes brilliant viewing. I liked your comment last night that when models struggle as much as they are you know something is brewing ( something like that anyway).

Wonderful to see the confusion has cleared this morning. At this rate the only thing we can do is use the very scienfitic method of looking out of the window :lol: All eyes on the +132 fax chart to sort this one out for the time being. Worth considering though the UKMO +120 chart has IMO been the best performer so far this winter with some consistent accuracy. Look how chilly it gets! http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF RAF Marham recorded -6C last night so not a bad start to the cold spell.

You crazy lot aren't staying up for the 0Z are you I would but I don't have enough cigarettes to last me through the night .

Haven't looked at the AO ensembles for a couple of days but was surprised when I viewed them. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif Two days ago the ensembles indicated a return to positive values +1.5 but now they seem to be clustering towards negative values. What with some of the recent GEFS ensembles indicating the posssiblity of a negative NAO this coupled with the AO could mean some significant N blocking towards mid month. I know this may sound silly what with this weeks weather uncertain but a cold Feb looks on the cards to me :lol:

No that link was taken from the GEFS model and the run we saw tonight is from the GFS so you won't see this run on the ensembles because the GEFS has it's control run and 14 ensemble members.

Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites. I know which I prefer.

Personally I have never understood the excitement of a few hrs of snow followed by a thaw and then rain. Seems like a waste of time IMO. If we could see a true E,ly bringing that mass of cold air over the continent this could bring joy to us all. Some people think all E,lys bring is snow showers on E coasts. :lol: . All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!. Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

I suppose this is what I was saying to JS earlier it's all about your location dictating whether you like this run or not. Im sure those away from the E will be willing the front to move in across the W whereas us members in the E will be hoping some of the colder shown on the link below comes our way. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png Good way of summing up the 18Z is poor for those looking for snowfall because the front would die out pretty quickly on this run. However the potential especially for us in the E is certainly worth watching.

Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options. (1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps (2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs (3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold (4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather (5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP. Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.

Knocking on my doorstep!. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png I must say I would rather have the cold spell prolonged at the expense of the snowfall because who knows where this will lead to.