TEITS

The problem is though Paul is GW actually responsible for the mild winter's since the 80's or are other factor's responsible. There is no doubt the earth is warming but I don't think it's quiet as black & white as you make it out to be. Could our mild winter's since 1980's be down to:- (1) GW (2) GW affecting our synoptic's (3) We are just going through one of earth's natural warm cycle's. (4) Sunspot activity (5) GW combined with warm cycle (6) Teleconnections Note Negative NAO during 60's and positive during 80's/90's My answer is a combination of the list above with (2),(5),(4),(6) being responsible. Now suppose these next few year's we go through a spell with low sunspot activity, Negative NAO like the 60's, change in the synoptic patterns with Northern blocking being dominant rather than LP. We would see winter's like those in the past only the severity and duration would probably be less due to GW.

After reading the post's on this thread im not sure that is a fair reflection of what some have said on here. By what I have read member's like SP commenting on the fact that last year not only did we have the synoptics but the record breaking cold pool in Russia proves a cold spell like 81/87 is very possible. Like SP what we need is the two of these to come together. Let's face it nobody know's what is going to happen this winter but you cannot assume this winter will be cold just because of last winter but equally you cannot expect this winter to be mild just because of previous mild winter's. If using past weather to predict the future weather was so easy then many LRF would be far more successful. You need to judge each winter on it's own merit's so the best way of getting an idea for this winter is to keep a close eye on the latest data SST's for example over these next 6 weeks.

Actually your wrong Dawlish and Slinky is correct. The word trend mean's a general direction in which something is developing or changing. When you consider the last two winter's we have seen a greater frequency of blocking compared to the atlantic driven winter's of previous years. So what Slinky mean's is he believe's last winter's synoptic trends will continue into this winter.

This is exactly it isn't SP we are not expecting another 62/63 or 47 but another 81/87/95/96 is quiet achieveable. I think some need to remember the CET during the last winter, Dec 05 4.4C which is 0.7C below the 71-00 average, Jan 06 4.3 +0.1C, Feb 3.8C -0.4C. I admit the synoptics since 87 have made a very cold winter less likely but not significantly so as Dawlish suggest's. Beside's this these past 18 month's has seen a change in the synoptic patterns compared to recent year's and this IMO gives hope this winter. I think those who keep banging the GW drum are going to be in for a fall one of these day's because our climate hasn't changed significantly enough to prevent another cold spell like in those year's I mention.

Don't forget WIB on the 29th Dec 2005 the Max temp was only -4C in many area's including Peterborough which would of been considered very cold even in the good ol days. GW may have moved the goalpost's somewhat but not as much as some suggest on here. May I also ask what is your reasoning for a very mild winter and what's the reasoning for unfavorable synoptic's?. Don't take this the wrong way but these past 5 month's you have been expecting endless HP and a quiet atlantic due to your preference of warm weather and it seem's odd now summer is at an end you expect HP to go AWOL. I hope your personal preference isn't clouding your judgement because let's face it neither of us have enough knowledge on LRF's to really make any kind of forecast for this winter.

Some great chart's for you to look at. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19420217.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19420224.gif

I think many of us on here deep down expect another mild disappointment but there is always that slight chance another 78/81/87/95/96 could happen. It is this that keep's us all addicted to the model's throughout the winter month's. I know for a fact come November 1st my excitement start's building

Im curious Dawlish at what timeframe do you class a forecast as being a LRF week,fornightly,monthly,seasonal?. The reason I say this is because due to our varied climate I believe any forecast beyond a week in the UK can be classed as a LRF. Because of this I would rate the Met O weekly,fortnightly forecast's as being very accurate. Another point I wish to address is your comment in your sig "Event Spot 90% success". Now Im not having a go but I think im right in saying that you use the GFS for these spot's?. Do you wait to see a pattern to emerge at +240 for example and if so then claim you have spotted something?, if this is the case then you cannot really claim any credit for this because the supercomputer is doing the forecast for you. What would be more impressive is to spot something when the GFS is all over the place at this timeframe. I can relate to this. When I first joined this forum I admit I was rather cocky, arrogant, loud, brash and thought I knew more than I did. In time I have realised my knowledge is nowhere near some on here hence my lower profile these days.

Im not talking about how reliable their forecast's are my point was in reference to your comment about them not taking into account GW when producing their LRF. I still maintain this was not just silly but a stupid comment.

Im a little confused Dawlish because on the one hand you say the above, and yet on one of your earlier post's you question if the Met O take into account GW when producing a LRF!. This TBH honest is a silly statement especially when you take into account the experience & expertise that goes into their LRF's and all the data they use to come to these conclusions. Even though the Met O LRF is a little vague I would much prefer an honest forecast than a wrong one. Im sure as time progresses the Met O with firm up the details of this coming winter as more data comes in.

Hang on though PIT if you going to post archive charts with recent one's then you have to post like with like. Look at the 500hpa link's below for 79/05 on 16th Feb. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050216.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790216.gif Completely different synoptics and I bet if I looked at the archive chart's I could find simliar 850 temps to those of recent years. I hate the term even larger teapot because to me if we get the combination of right synoptics with cold pooling then winter's of the past can still occur. Last winter was a good example because Russia had a spell of intense cold and if synoptics could of bought that cold pooling our way then a big freeze would of occured. Too many people just assume that if an E,ly come's our way then ice day's are a certainity and if they don't then GW is to blame without looking at the larger picture. The synoptics over Europe are equally important as the synoptics that bring our cold spells. For example if Europe had experienced a spell of SW,lys and then we have an E,ly this isn't going to be as cold than if Europe had experienced a spell of N,lys. This is why I never understand why people get excited at cold pooling occuring over Europe in November because being a continent the different airmasses can bring an abrupt change in temperature and this can swing very quickly from mild to very cold. The problem recently is whenever we have had an E,ly the conditions in Europe weren't ideal for a very cold spell due to the synoptics prior to our E,ly. Let's hope this winter we can get the combination of cold pooling and then the synoptics. Just remembered that last Dec we had a max temp of only -4C which would of been classed as very cold in even the good ol days.

I couldn't agree anymore with the above SP. My view is simple anyone who has the "I know exactly what will happen" attitude is either extremely arrogant or extremely stupid IMO. We have enough trouble prediciting what will occur in a week's time let alone our future climate and nobody has enough knowledge to know how GW will affect our weather patterns. I remember back in the 90's when a series of Atlantic storms caused havoc in the UK, I remember the media going over the top saying how these will become more frequent and severe over forthcoming Autumns/Winters and yet who would of expected such a quiet Atlantic these past 18months!. It is this uncertainity in our climate why come November I get excited at the prospect of winter because yes our winter's are warmer than back in the good old days but it would only be a fool who would totally write off the chances of a cold winter.

You know what has cause this pattern change don't you?. Ever since I joined this forum back in Oct 2004 I have forecasted nothing but E,lys and strangely enough that is exactly what happened in Feb 2005. So nature has finally given in to my demands and given me what I want. Who need's science when im around . Seriously though I did make a post about synoptic change back in March 2005 if anyone remembers

Your quiet right SP and 1981 is another good example. All 3 Autumn month's were extremely unsettled with even an outbreak of Tornado's in November and yet both Dec/Early Jan 82 were extremely cold & wintry with some record breaking min temps.

Very wise words Anti-mild. I remember last Autumn reading forecast's for the US based on SST's that they were going to have a very harsh winter and yet apart from early Dec the rest of the winter was above average. I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct. This summer has been a very good example because back in May WIB suggested a very warm/hot June & July and by what I read a majority of his forecast was based on instincts and yet he was the only one to be right on this forum. Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.

Interesting post Daniel but im afraid our climate is alot more complicated than just using past weather to predict our future weather. Im pretty sure if I check back to the records I could find many similiar occurences where a hot July/Cool August produced a mild winter. If you look back as recent as our last proper cold winter 95/96 you will see that both July/August in 1995 were hot & sunny and inactual fact August was one of the hottest,sunniest on record.

As you can see from the pic's in my sig these were taken from the same spot, but nature clearly show's what a poor month August has been.

TWO predict's wintry weather more often than I predict E,lys which is saying something

One thing I will say IB please don't think I was having a go because I enjoy reading your forecast's and have great respect for you.

I agree with every word Steve. The problem that I see with putting exact dates in an LRF is what OON said to me last winter. If for example the forecast goes pear shaped during the first week of Dec then the rest of the forecast may aswell be thrown in the bin because you cannot take credit for weather event's happening after this period because then it would be coincidental because of the failure of the forecast at the beginning. This coming winter I shall be looking for two things in an LRF, temp/rainfall and like yourself I would like to see the scientific reasoning for this forecast and which method's were used. I believe we are a long way away from producing successful LRF's and this is why I think anyone who tries to produce a LRF should stick with the basic's i.e temp/rainfall and then build from there.

Following on from IB great description here is some archive charts. Cold NW.ly snow showers meaning white Xmas for some Note LP coming over the top of HP although still cold N,ly Milder Atlantic air moves in as HP sinks S due to LP to the N

All im trying to say is the average MAX temp in Peterborough has been 17.8C upto 14th August. I was wrong with the average max temp for Peterborough because it is actually 22.3 so that makes it 3.5C below normal. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ave.../cambridge.html So im not talking about the CET mean temp but the average max temp iin Peterborough. The sunshine total so far this month 11.0 hrs really proves what a poor August it has been for my region.

I've just posted this link on model discussion thread but it applies here also. http://www.paulwilman.com/August2006.htm Sunshine hrs so far this month 11.5! Average temp 17.5C!

LRF's are certainly difficult to do and I for one won't be doing a winter LRF this Autumn. I feel I embarassed myself last winter with my LRF because all I really did was post what I hoped we happen which is why it failed miserably. I would be better off reading and trying to learn and understand other people's LRF and the data they used to compile such a forecast. Hopefully one day I could produce my own LRF which would be based on science rather than hoping for E,lys

Depends where you live because for my region the coldest & snowiest weather was just after Xmas when I max temp of only -4C was reached.