TEITS

Reassuring that your going for a below average month Steve. By the way I know this may sound cheeky but when can we expect your winter forecast as im sure many including myself are anxious to read it.

Im going for a December which is colder than 95 although not quiet as cold as 81 so 2.0C for me. This month shall be dominated be outbreaks of Artic N,lys & Continental E,lys although the very first few days of Dec may start mild before the N,lys arrive. You didn't really expect me to say anything else did you

Ironic though isn't it how excited the members of this forum have become at the prospects of an E,ly especially after the E,ly outbreaks during Dec/Feb these past few winters. Didn't some say the E,lys in winter were extinct when I first joined this forum :o

I agree John and this is what I love about these types of forecast's that the likes of GP,SM, Iceman do. Many of us not only want to discuss the weather but want to learn abit more and these forecasts really help us do that. The type of forecasts I now hate are those that say "wait until Jan" which is usually followed by a wink and no explaination as to why they are predicting this. What I find ironic is I used to make such forecasts :lol: . Nowadays I prefer to use my internet time on reading and understanding meteorology rather than posting forecasts!

I don't remember his forecast being very accurate . Personally I feel ken would be better off popping to Homebase than looking at the moon for his forecasts. Speaking of which I may use B&Q this year for my forecasts and use some expensive wallpaper so when my forecast goes pearshaped I can hang it on the wall :lol:

Same here. Im delighted to see the return of this thread.

Great thread Mr Data. The winter of 78/79 was probably my first memory of snowfall as I was 8 years old. What I do remember vivdly is the snow drifts which were unbelievable. I especially remember a weather warning on the TV saying blizzards on the way that evening and I remember how me & my brothers looked out the window from that moment onwards. It is the snowfalls of 78/79/81 which got me hooked on the weather.

I have to agree with Dawlish about the ensembles. As we all know +144 is about the limit of the reliability of the models although this can vary between +72 to +204 depending on the current synoptics. So what I personally do is just look at the ensembles upto +144 because like Dawlish correctly says if the control run is showing wildly different synoptics in FI on each subsequent runs then as a forecast tool the ensembles are useless because these to would show huge variations. The problem again is the Chaos theory which is why these supercomputers struggle predicting beyond 7days. One of the reasons for these ensembles is to actually take into account the Chaos theory by changing the starting points and then to see if the same pattern emerges. Unfortunately IMO all these ensembles do is cause greater confusion if you want to know what is going to happen in FI because you only need to look at the SLP ensembles for +276 for example to see the wildly different synoptics. Like I say alot depends on the current synoptics as to where FI begins so sometimes I only look at the control/ensembles upto +72 and other times it can be +204. I will admit to go looking for E,lys at +384 come winter time :lol:

Nothing surprises me anymore with regards to how the media handle our weather. It doesn't matter if they are talking about big freezes or floods i.e Boscastle their information is often incorrect. Remember how Boscastle & the Tornado in Birmingham was blamed on GW which of course is total rubbish. The media seem to have taken an OTT American approach to presenting our weather , but the difference is the US do have extreme weather worth reporting yet our climate is tame in comparison. Note how in winter if 3inches of snow has fallen how the newspapers will have headlines like "Blizzards sweep UK" GMTV will have reporters all over the country showing footage of this snowfall! and they always say "Worse is yet to come" even if the forecasts say the opposite. <_< The Met Office are just as bad IMO because you can guarantee this winter when scattered snow showers are predicted they will issue severe weather warnings!. The problem with this is the general public will start to ignore these warnings and when a proper snow event occurs (not if but when!) the public will get caught out due to the many false alarms previously.

There would of been serious trouble if SF had excluded Peterborough (the capital of E,lys) from his list

The Bartlett could arise from all the hot air from Dawlish & WIB :lol: :lol:

No I don't bother so much these days with the wallpaper or forecasting for that matter. After all those heated debate's on this forum I prefer just to look at the model's and chip in now and then and generally keep a lower profile.

I tell you what makes me laugh when I joined this forum many told me the synoptics that bring the E,ly's are extinct in this even larger teapot era and are unachieveable, and yet today nearly every post I read is talking about E,lys. :lol:

I just wanted to let you know that due to recent comment's by certain poster's that GW is responsible for our lack of cold winter's and how GW is making the chance of a colder winter becoming rarer each passing year I shall be making a rather lengthy post in a few days time to prove GW isn't solely responsible. Anyone who has read my recent post's will know that I have argued that other factor's have been also responsible and I will also illustrate how our recent so called warm E,ly's actually occured in the past. I shall also post chart's illustrating/explaining why our winter's were so mild during the 80's/90's and will also try and explain what the difference is between a classic freeze like 87 is in comparison to a cold spell like Dec 05.

A very good idea :lol: . My main point im making about August is that for my location it wouldn't of mattered if the temps were +25C it was a very dull/wet month and very disappointing.

August didn't seem poor it WAS poor!. It doesn't matter what the temps were the fact is it never stopped raining here in Peterborough and this is why I classed it as a poor month. The garden was proof of this because as you may remember the pic's on my sig used to show the brown dead grass of July which was changed into a lovely lush green within a couple of weeks in August.

Morning Richard. May I ask where you are getting the return of the full blown atlantic from?? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png As for the chances of a cold winter becoming rarer with each passing year may I ask you what would happen if the factor's that made the 90's so mild were reversed in the next few year's. GW is only a tiny part of the reason why the winter's since the 80's have been so mild and it look's to me the other reasons are on the change.

Which is why I say using stats are ok to a certain degree. SST's have a major impact on our weather and yet we know how quickly these can change and im sure GP/SM are closely montioring these over the next 6 weeks.

You are absolutely right SP. Assuming our future weather based on previous year's is a rather basic way of looking at our climate and isn't taking all the factor's in that make our climate. As an example our winter's since the 80's have been largely dominated by a positive NAO resulting in a rampant Atlantic with little high lattitude blocking. Now suppose the next decade bring's a return of this high lattitude blocking with more frequent occurences of continental/artic airmasses our winter's would be far different to those in the 80's.90's and would render the stats on the 80's.90's as being pretty useless. So you are quiet right SP Statistics are ok if used properly but you need to look at all the influences that make our climate. I believe you should judge each year on it's own merits and when it's comes to what to expect this winter I prefer to look at the sign's in Autumn e.g SST's/Teleconnections rather than look at stats for the previous years to base a forecast for the oncoming winter. Let me say this how many people on this forum expected August to be as poor as it was after the blazing hot June/July??

Some very interesting post's on this thread about LRF's but I think we need to be clear on the different types of LRF's. Now it is my belief that LRF's that go into detail e.g week by week details of weather and synoptics are just pure guesswork when forecasting 3 months ahead because we struggle making detailed forecast's 14 days ahead!. However LRF's that just stick to whether temps/rainfall are going to be above/below average by using SST's/teleconnections for example are more realistic and it could be argued have a higher success rate than a detailed forecast for the next 14 days. I personally enjoy reading all types of LRF's on this forum and whether these are based on instincts, hopecast's or science I find these are not just enjoyable to read but a great learning tool especially from the like's of GP/SM.

Until GW completely removes the possiblity of a cold winter the cold lover's on this forum shall continue to be in full force. Beside's this who know's what the future brings and without the aid of either a crystal ball or a time machine there is no way we can be sure what our weather is going to be. To assume our future climate is going to be warmer just because of recent warming is rather foolish IMO and lacks an understanding of our climate.

Whilst we are discussing classic winter chart's I shall post my favourites. During the winter you will often hear the word "TRUE Greenland High" now the chart's below show a true Greenland HP and not one of those fake one's you see the GFS outputting every winter!. The exceptional 1981 event began with Artic air flooding S on the first chart. On the 11th heavy snowfall occured in the S due to a LP running along the Channel. After this snow event Max temps only reached -12C in Shawbury and was followed by min temps of -25C, even by early evening the temps had dropped to -22C!!. This was caused by a combination of light wind's/artic airmass/snowfall and was IMO one hell of a freeze.

I may take these chart's with a dose of salt but I appreciate you posting them Paul. P.S Please don't post chart's like the New Year one because it upset's the ramping :lol:

Look's like we could be spending Xmas day shovelling snow instead of eating turkey SP. Stunning chart especially for E area's.

Here we go a the link below is selling it for £11.99. I shall certainly be buying this. http://www.play.com/Books/Books/STGCS4/3-/...me/Product.html