TEITS

--> QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 12:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> One heck of a cold pool out to the east if we were to tap into that then we "could" be onto something special. Great to see you on here again Paul. This Scandi HP has got me very curious indeed especially how the models are handling this. Over these past few days the models have hinted at this moving being closer to the UK. Now on the 18Z this is ridging further NW to an extent where E England is pulling a SE,ly in. What in your opinion is the chances of this HP having such an effect where the Atlantic is unable to progres across the country and dare I say it an E,ly pushes across the UK.

Trouble is JS you are not considering other members locations when you post your conclusions on the models runs. You mention atlantic storms which is fair enough but the possible snow event is of far more of interest to a majority of members on here than any potential storms at the moment. So I have no problem with you concentrating on your location but remember what the weather is likely for you isn't the same for others.

Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be. Obviously my region is included :lol:

Even by +336 is hasn't turned mild. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png WIB will be having kittens when he views this run especially after his 7.7 CET prediction

One thing I do want to add is when I said the countryfile forecast could be null & void by Mon I wasn't being disrespectful to them. I find the Met O to be the best in the world when it comes to forecasting but in these situations it must be a nightmare to forecast. When you consider we shall already have cold air in place, pressure rising to our E, Atlantic trying to move in which isn't exactly bringing mild air in, it all adds to being a huge headache for any forecaster.

Why are you so certain??. Correct me if im wrong but wasn't it so certain that the atlantic was going to move in on Wednesday. What im basically saying is over these last few days the trend has been to prolong this cold spell due to heights increasing to our E. Who's to say this trend will continue and the advance of the atlantic will be delayed further. Who knows the models may continue this so we find that the precip never makes its way across to the E!!. This of course is unlikely at this stage but I have seen these scenarios so many times over the past 30years that I wouldn't write anything off just yet.

Hang on though PP it was only a few days ago that the models indicated a few hrs of snow and milder weather arriving by Wed. Look at the temps at +144 for Friday hardly mild is it!!. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur. Even the countryfile forecast tomorrow will be null & void by Mon such is the uncertainity and the likelyhood of further changes. I suggest members look at the models with an eye to the overall trends rather than the will it snow attitude.

Do you dislike the SE as you always seem to refer to this location . I wouldn't be to smug TBH if the current trend continues because the SE could well be the place to be!.

I tell you what nobody may not have a clue what is going to happen at the end of the week but who would of thought a chart like this was possible 2 days ago!!. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png Im like Nick Sussex it is what happens beyond this week I find more interesting because when it comes to the snow event we shall probably have to wait until 48hrs before the event to know what will fall. Except Tamara because she did say this was a possibility.

You see it is a statement like that what irritates me. The E,ly isn't me wishing it to happen or hopecasting or even drawing it on my wallpaper. The E,ly was shown on the GEFS ensemble and all im doing is merely highlighting the chart in the MODEL discussion thread!.

Not yet but I don't base my conclusions on one run but view all the runs & ensembles.

Morning all and what a very good sets of runs this morning. A week of lovely frosty weather with max temps only around 3-4C and min temps could drop down as low as -10C in some favourable areas. After this we have the potential for a snow event before the Atlantic TRIES to move in!. One chart that I find interesting is the +144 where after the precip moves across the temps across W parts drop to -7C. This can only be down to one thing snow cover and slack winds. Notice I say the Atlantic tries to move in because im not so sure it will!. The trend since yesterday is for the GFS to delay the arrival of the front due to rising pressure to our E. Well the GEFS have finally thrown in an ensemble which given the current pattern was in inevitable. Atlantic tries to move in. http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-192.png?0 HP to the E builds preventing atlantic moving in and forcing a shortwave to move SE undercutting the HP. http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-252.png?0 HP in full control http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-324.png?0 Beast brings blizzards for many. http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0 I know this is only one member but I tell you what I would not rule this pattern out whatsoever. I shall be watching the GEFS +192 if this pattern gets any support.

I agree OON a wonderful post from BF and like you say the good thing with BF post is that there is no biased at all towards his analysis which IMO provides a much better evaluation of the situation. I wish my biased wouldn't affect my posts but I can't help it

Try this and then click on table of snow depth. http://homepage.ntlworld.com/gesc_b/Pages/

I especially love your first pic Tamara the orange glow from the streetlamp lighting up the snowfall is magical.

Good thread this because im curious to read who complains at the lack of snow when they weren't even forecasted any by either the models or forecasts. Im not having a dig at anyone but it's more of a general observation of reading posts before the cold spell arrives.

Im going for 1.9C. Why you may ask? well I keep predicting this so im bound to get it right so time Seriously though a month very much dominated by blocking bringing alternating E,lys, N'lys. Next month could be very special indeed.

Hi John I've been reading many accounts of the 47, 63 winters and what suprised me is just how severe the 47 winter actually was. As you say the 62/63 winter was very cold and prolonged but when it comes to deep snowfall and general disruption to the country the 47 winter was far more severe by what I have read. What I also noticed during these winters is how many people lost their lives with many accidents being those of people falling through frozen lakes,ponds,rivers. Ever since I was a child i've always craved a winter like 47,63 but upon reading my weather books I recieved for Xmas I never want to experience a winter like those. I shall have to post some of the literature from these weather books because one of the books has weather accounts dating back from 1700's!. P.S I've got some pics of Met O weather forecasters back in the 60's, I shall have to post their names and see if you remember them. Also I was reading how George Cowling used to travel on the tube with his hand drawn weather charts to the studio to present his weather forecasts!. You know in a strange way I wish our forecasts were still presented like this. Nice post by the way Mr D.

Didn't he claim a success for the Dec storms because of the tornado that hit London :lol: . No doubt he will do the same for next week when a snow flake falls on the summit of Ben Nevis :lol:

Piers is going to cause problems if he continues to issue these forecasts. Suppose later on a real blizzard does look possible and warnings are issued by the Met Office. What will happen is the public will take no notice and get caught out. Doesn't Piers use the solar system for his forecasts?

Yes my cautious/realistic approach has gone out of the window this morning. I smell an E,ly in the wind or was it that dodgy chicken tikka I had last night.

I've been rumbled :lol: :lol:

Your right SF because I posted mine on the 22nd Nov on pg 2 of this thread. Any chance I could add 5C on my prediction <_<

Plenty more ramping yet to come im just getting warmed up :blink: .

Are you the same Gavin who posts on TWO. If so I wish to say I enjoy reading your posts and im glad you have decided to join this forum. By the way my CET prediction of 2C is looking iffy B)