049balt
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Posts posted by 049balt
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1 hour ago, stodge said:
Morning all
Looking into next week:- ECM 00Z at T+192:
GEM:
GFS:
Not a done deal by any stretch in the medium term. There are really two HP cells - ECM and GEM have the second one already in place to the west (though GEM again is less keen on the Greenland heights) while GFS still has the first cell in place (though that's not a good chart for the south).and the second cell just arriving.
GFS FI iis uninspiring again this morning and the end of April isn't looking too clever for those wanting warmth and sunshine but that's an eternity away and it will no doubt change.
Its pretty good from where I am sitting, lots to look forward to, if you are a farmer!
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Very dry outlook.
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But then..
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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Remember these update twice a day based on GFS anything beyond a week should be taken with extreme caution
GFS still giving a lot of dry weather over the next 2 weeks but a couple of wet days in the mix.
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This site still has not come on board with the dry outlook.
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Where is everyone?
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16 minutes ago, knocker said:
The GEFs 06Z 10-16 is quite similar to the EPS 00z 10-15
The Meto now coming on board with some dry and pleasant weather in the forecast.
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
High pressure starting to build in the latter stages of GFS hence the drier signal on this run
It seems too good to be true, lets hope other models come on board.
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Once again signs of much dryer weather a week or so out.
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Someone expects some dry weather, in a weeks time.
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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Gradually becoming less cold next week and with high pressure coming into play more for the UK further frosts look likely on this afternoon's GFS its not until the very end things are shown to turn colder as a northerly flow sets-up again
Some nice charts there , lets hope they verify.
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I admire your optimism, Frosty, really I do. But so far this summer, those charts have only materialized on about 3 days! Are you quite sure you are not 'flogging a dead horse'?
Frosty post what he sees, he is not the only one that is optimistic!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
Final week dry and warm.
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Has it been mentioned that the North Atlantic sea temp. is almost two degrees below normal for the time of year, this anomaly has impacted on recent temps. which have been fine in sunshine but cool otherwise.
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Looking at that the average is around 20c for week 2 that's not to say of course 25c couldn't be reached if conditions were right
Anytime we get yellow here we have crossed 25c during daytime.
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Frosty, we got there in the end!!
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The GEFS 12z mean shows a cool unsettled blip next weekend but the following week shows a marked improvement with the azores high ridging towards the UK, although I don't like the Azores high in winter, I can't get enough of it during the summer and I hope it keeps building and rebuilding our way in the next 3 months.
As Tamara pointed out to us all our weather pattern is changing and for the better. I don't understand why we are getting frosts in June.!
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Agreed, let's enjoy the fine pleasant, fresher weather which will last at least until next thurs/fri instead of glossing over that and moaning about a possibly more unsettled outlook, the outlook is not necessarily going to be unsettled
Its what is happening after next weekend that interests me, in the context of Tamara's posts I feel we will continue to get some good weather.
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Next week looks like the best week we have had so far this year in the North West.
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I hope the ECM is being too progressive about a return to unseasonal Atlantic lows. 4/5 days of relatively better weather and then a return to cooler North Westerlies if it came off.
I feel it different this time, a more normal type of benign Summer weather is what I expect.
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Significant divergence past day 7 remains. Tonight's Euro the most progressive for some time..
The Atlantic looks very quiet to me, Q. Tamara!
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
West is best, and driest.