049balt
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Posts posted by 049balt
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The truth is no one here, especially myself, have called it correct over the past couple of weeks, or even the past couple of months.The models have tempted us with Summer only to snatch it away at the last moment. My gut feeling from watching the models, and from reading the mainstream forecasts is that things will get better during June , and hopefully a lot better than May.
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These charts seem to cause a lot of confusion. There are two, 8 day periods represented; only the first 8 days is expressed as the anomaly. The other guy was talking about days 8 to 16 - they are wet for his location.
Thanks.
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But 50% of normal.
Yes, for the first week.
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The Ecm 12z looks good next week with high pressure building in from the west and becoming warm. In the meantime, the current cool, windy unsettled weather will be replaced by warmer and drier conditions for a few days, temperatures rising with increasing amounts of sunshine on wed/thurs with Friday being the warmest day for the south at around 27c 81f and a risk of thundery rain pushing north. The weekend looks cooler and fresher but pleasantly warm and largely fine in the south and east but the northwest of the UK more unsettled, nice next week.
Frosty, we will get there, sooner or a little bit later.
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Interesting update from the Met today, they are still bullish on the medium term for dry and warm weather.
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The ECM agrees with the GFS in simply recycling the attempted Euro ridge pattern from the end of the coming week, will round 2 deliver the goods?
UKMO the best of the bunch with the low further north at the end of the week and holds the warmth further north compared to the other models.
It's not that bad once we get this bloody awful Monday behind us, high pressure will dominate but just normal temps. especially to begin with.
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I don't think we should get too depressed about the output this am, the models have been really struggling with the position of the High for some time. I hope Tamara will keep us updated on the road to Summer.
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Would the outcome of this heat just create speradic thunderstorms or are they likely to to follow some sort of structure / pattern
I can not believe what the weather could be possibly like next Saturday for the festival I'm involved
Extremely excited
Dramatic changes do happen as we move into Summer and the continent heats up, looks like we have conditions for the "perfect storm".
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With high pressure becoming established to give northern and especially northern western parts a well overdue spell of summer-like weather with deep blues skies and a lot of wall to wall sunshine close to the High pressure, a cut-off low aspect to the S & SW looks set to play its own role in the other high temperature summer weather variant, taking on a typically tropical aspect for southern and south western UK - as thundery activity ebbs and flows, as it moves up from Biscay and continental Europe periodically
Music to my ears
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Tamara, superb, as usual.
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The models are really struggling to pin down the position of the High, where pressure falls in the heat we are likely to get thunder storms, maybe that explains the wet forecasts.
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Normal or dry weather away from Ireland the NW of Britain
Exactly.
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Awesome Ecm 12z this evening, great to see continuity from the 00z. Really exciting potential for the majority of us on here. 30c 86f/32c 90f from this run with reload potential..lovely stuff
It is hard to see these predicted temps. materialise. 30c plus in early June?
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That was a beauty for Ireland...
Thanks, that was the last really hot spell here.
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Can someone please post a chart for 10 July 2013
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Our weather will undergo a significant change next week, a move that will take us,( here in the North West) from Winter straight into Summer, the models seem to be arguing on the finer details but June looks very good indeed, especially in the Northwest.
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Still some uncertainty exactly how things will pan out next week, the position of the high will dictate temps., it may take time to build some real heat.
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A few post's have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/page-14#entry3205751
Please continue to use this thread to discuss what the Models are actually showing. It is not a competition with the METO or members alike.
Many Thanks, PM.
Just having a bit of fun, Boss.
Before the settling down the GFS shows a pretty deep system sweep down from the N/W for the 1st day of Summer, With severe gales crossing Northern England. Aided by a strong Jet..
Yes, some real misery to come to round off a terrible May.
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The METO have issued a statement categorically denying that approaches have been made to some of the stars in the other thread. However social media is still awash with speculation.
ken Ring is the man they need to approach!
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Not sure you can claim to be right when any potential change is over a week away, but I'd like to think you will be - and I'm just simple hotelier, desperate for some decent summer weather to placate the guests who have moaned at me all month about how poor it's been.
It fascinating how the weather impacts the lives of so many, farmers and hoteliers especially.
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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looks encouraging
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html