[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

Looks to me like the strong sub-tropical Jet we saw over the US in April (classic Nino pattern) has since weakened and backed west. Instead of sending cut-off lows it has allowed for a more dominant Polar Jet which as you'd expect in the UK looks to be producing a more normal NW/SE split. 

Where ever it is coming from it has steered huge amounts of rain over Ireland over the last seven days, 500% of normal in the West.

[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

There are some signs that the jet is heading north during the final third of this month.

[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

Medium to longer term, things are looking up with more in the way of settled and warm weather, especially for the south & east / SE. The GEFS 6z mean shows a general improvement next week and further ahead with high pressure in the ascendancy. And in addition, the models show an improving picture by the coming weekend with lighter winds / calmer and mainly dry conditions with warm sunny spells. I also like the met office extended outlook which mentions above average temperatures and a trend towards settled

I think any settled weather will be a transient affair.

[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

Evening all

 

Huge scatter in the GEFS 12z tonight after next Friday. No idea whats going to happen and neither do the models looking at this. What a mess:

 

 

 

What does look more certain is that this week coming will be mostly wet and unsettled, so not a great start to May. The mean into week 2 also keeping things fairly average. The GFS 12z takes a dive after this with it becoming the worst case scenario into FI so not likely to be as bad as the run looks.

 

I think from this, we are probably looking at a poor first half of May with rain and showers around with average temps and then probably an improvement for the second half. Hard to say as high pressure has already been pushed back and things can change but perhaps a month of 2 halves coming up

Reading between the lines it does look like we will some improvement after mid week

[Sunday 3rd May General Weather Chat]

Ireland had a real deluge over the past 24 hours, wide spread flooding, over 30 mm fell last night alone, not very pleasant for the farming community.

[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

It looks like we are entering a period of  unsettled weather with only the South East getting occasional dry periods as high pressure builds every now and again. Temps. look ok with strong sunshine making it feel pleasant . High pressure never seems that far away which is a good indication that at some stage we will get some settled spell but we might have to wait until later in the month.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

UKMO shows the high building in during Friday

 

 

GFS meanwhile has the high south of the UK through out the run

 

 

GEM has a similar idea to GFS with the high not getting in

 

 

So at t144 its currently UKMO on its own for the high and beyond this GFS and GEM both show the high staying south of the UK

O Dear, Summer on hold.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Sticking to the reliable i.e. out to about Thursday next week, it remains an unsettled picture but milder than of late thankfully, meaning much less risk of frost. A troublesome trough will languish to the west of the country enveloping much of the country in a generally wet or showery airstream with some drier interludes more so in the SE, hopefully Monday should be a reasonable day for many.

 

Longer term - conflicting signals from the models today, but general theme from ensembles and Jetstream forecasts is for heights to the southwest to exert there influence bringing warmer conditions and more settled conditions. However, it is an uncertain outlook and its a fine balance between something rather more lukewarm and lacklustre developing as the atlantic continues to trouble most of us and something finer and settled for the majority of us (the far NW furthest from influence of heights less likely to see drier settled warmer weather). Odds though on drier settled warmer conditions settling in from the south, how far north and west these penetrate is the question.

Yes, that is the way I see things at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

I like the end of the Ecm 00z with very warm air from the south soon after, met office still going for a warmer and more settled further outlook.

The settled weather keeps being pushed out, still a very uncertain.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Thats still the 00z still awaiting the 12z update

 

Temperature wise the light orange colours make an appearance in week 2 for some

 

 

 

What is the difference between 00z and the 12z?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

Not everyone agrees on dry weather.

[Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.]

Once again it was here that the coming settled weather was spotted first, although it has taken time for confidence to rise it now looks like Summer will be with us for the next week or so. The Met Office have only in the last couple of days come on board, nothing new there!

[Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.]

Yes indeed! But given the very poor modelling of the weather in the near term .its best ignored!!

Why should it be ignored, all the indications are for settled weather to develop next week.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Yes it would be good to see some kind of pattern change out of this almost Autumn type of weather and there are continuing signs of that in later ens. outputs.

The forecasted upper trough around the UK for next week is again modeled to recede later in week 2 and onwards.

Later naef's ens means showing some warmth and rising pressure easing north from the continent.

 

naefsnh-1-0-300.pngnaefsnh-1-1-300.png

 

it would start to feel much more Summer like especially further south and east if this came about.

Of course we are looking around12 days + ahead but this trend has been building in recent days and would seem a more likely way to something different rather than the Azores high option.

Looking at naef's again there is still a -ve heght anomaly showing in mid-Atlantic in week 2 which you think would prevent the AH ridging north for now.

With this in mind we could still have a weak Atlantic pattern developing for later into June but with a more traditional nw/se split at times.

No great heatwave yet if this evolution came about but temps.in the low 20'C from that would certainly feel more seasonal.

Very interesting, most of the long range forecasts are pointing towards High pressure building from the North/East, rather than the usual South west.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

If anything that looks worse, clear indication of the sub-tropical jet taking over will cripple the Azores High.

The one thing most bad wet Summers have in common is a strong Southerly jet and a very mobile Atlantic, it appears to be a more blocked scenario recently that has the potential to go either way, a small change can make a big difference.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

GFS mean at day 7

Not making any comment as it's a close call. One thing can be said that the pattern for next week has corrected a long way back westwards in the last couple of days. 48 hours ago we saw low heights across the UK and into Scandinavia. Now we have a very strong ridge developing east of the UK with a trough developing just west of the UK.

At least if this scenario develops we would be back to more normal rainfall rather than the drenching we are getting at the moment

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

_{http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html}

 

 

_{At long last.}

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

Are we seeing the first signs of the weather drying out.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Very dry outlook from week two.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Reliable timeframe - unsettled with bands of rain and showers from the west in brisk winds and feeling quite chilly especially in the north particularly so over the weekend with winds turning to the NW.

 

GFS showing further trough development to our west next week killing off the chance of any build of heights from the SW, however, ECM is showing a build of strong heights from the azores high - these quickly building over the country next week ushering in a very warm settled outlook.

 

This time of year can see sudden swings from one extreme to another as the northern hemisphere moves into its summer state. Its a very difficult time of year to make forecasts, much more so than the late summer-autumn-winter period.

 

A warm settled spell in May is always a treat though - and can deliver the best the year can offer for sunny dry settled weather here in the Lake District and points further north and west.

What a great post.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

What a dramatic change, I feel that once this pattern gets established it might not change for some time.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

Every time we see some very cold and wet weather forecast recently, it is nearly always downgraded by the time it arrives, the trend is for continued dry weather with occasional wet interruptions .

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Dry trend continues after some rain during the next week.

[Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.]

ECM keeps the high going into next week like GFS does so GEM is seemingly on its own this evening for the breakdown on BH Monday

 

 

A short colder snap later in the week before it becomes milder again from the west during the weekend, Friday into Saturday continues to be the coldest period with a widespread frost probably barring any changes

 

 

The high starts to drift east slowly WC the 5th but we are always under its influence most importantly as well is high pressure doesn't re-build over Greenland

The trend continues for dry weather.