Frostbite80

Thanks mate, not as good as Icon but i will take anything

Unfortunately no snow event on GFS 18z unless you live in Scotland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html Spot the odd month out. I would say we are looking at a significantly colder than average month which bucks the trend, hopefully this trend continues.

The Vortex is on its knees in FI

Is that an active cold front moving south at 168....rain to snow possibly

Is the GFS not running on meteociel again?

Yep will be watching that run until the end just for entertainment purposes as I don’t think I will ever see a run like that again for many a year

Perb 18 is what you want if you like a good snow storm. Some people would get 42 hours of snow even in the south if I worked it out right. If someone could post some charts it would be great to show one possibility. I can’t post charts at the moment unfortunately. and a reload after the great blizzard....we can only but dream

I spy no polar vortex over Canada

Jet heading to north africa

Better wedge of heights to the north to

Better orientation of the low at 138 which would aid in it going further south if it makes it to the uk at all

114 is where the low started going ne before going back west instead of going e/ne like ECM so let’s see where she goes...

OMG...quality, a bit of wee just come out

Definitely more of the low impacting the uk in some way on the 12z ens but to varying degrees, some will lead to the low exiting the uk and keeping us cold and some bringing milder air in so it’s still all to play for IMHO

What concerns me is the AL is quite a bit further north quite early in the run which should be more accurate than FI.... let’s see where it sits within the ensembles

Oh don’t look at the 168 chart, southerly winds incoming lol

AL looks further north to me and less likely to slide? Although pressure is higher over Scandinavia

Unless you live in EA or the South

God i wish i could swear on this forum, will everyone take a chill, its the second on December and if we only get a few days of cold weather in THIS spell, look at the bigger picture and what might transpire later on. I know it hurts to see great synoptics snatched away but they can return just as quick, just enjoy the ride, i certainly am. Being a weather fan doesnt mean getting what you want all the time but just enjoying what mother nature throws at you. Plenty more opportunities to come this winter i feel.

The one thing that always concerned me was the lack of cold over europe and whether we have a cold snap or spell, snowy or not northern europe will be going into the freezer so when/if we get another bite of the cherry it would be a whole new ball game, that with the chance of a SSW later in the winter is good enough for me. Certainly different to many of our previous winters and sometimes like some of our best winters a second bite of the cherry is what it takes. Its going to be seasonable for the next 2 weeks lets just take that for now and you never know there may be some surprises along the way.

UKMO 168 doesnt look great to me in terms of the GL high slipping SE

NE please

Not without some support though Not without some support though