Frostbite80

Any links @northwestsnow? Cheers in advance.

Unfortunately only one other ensemble is any where near as extreme as the op and there are a fair few with the cold uppers not really getting into the south at all because of that pesky low to the sw.

PV is in tatters and a gentle waft of -4 uppers, it will just get colder and colder day by day and it will finally be dry!!

Its interesting to see that there is more scatter in the ensembles between the 5th and 7th December than after this date which has more emphasis on a colder option. I am guessing this is to do with the position of the Iberian low position and strength, however over all i am happy with the ensembles, especially moving into the second week of December. Just my thoughts....

Faux cold is my bet Seasonal none the less

Its the weekend no decent forecasters about lol

Because of inpatience, if you dont see eye candy charts every time its dead i the water

Looks pretty damn cold to the north and east to me, this run just doesnt tap into any of it? Just now, Snowy L said: No cold to our east has been fairly consistent though. There is such a thing as too much vortex disruption. Entire Europe and Northwest Asia being clear of it, nothing to transfer the cold to the UK.

Whats the bets its a warm outlier and everyone relaxes until the next warm outlier....perspective peeps the overall trend is our friend.

Para, steady as she goes

12z is off lets hope we continue with the same theme

I think there is enough doubt on the orientation of any northern blocking for them to sit on the fence fo a while longe

Starting to warm up above nicely https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

Typically the NE USA goes into the freezer while we end up with coldrain in FI 

Are the lows going to slide.... Need pressure to fall in SE Europe

PV certainly isnt happy

Only one way that high is going after day 10.....SE as there is too much energy going over the top unfortunately.

Cold going into the US and Canada only one way that is going with the atlantic being so warm....

With the US having its first plunge in temperatures and the northern atlantic being so warm my bet would be for the atlantic whistle through for some time but whether that is just temporary remains to be seen

PV doesnt look happy

Interestingly the ne pacific has been cooling a fair bit in the last week and if that continues would it be enough to at least weaken any high pressure that might set up there moving into winter. Also some cooling in the central belt of the atlantic....

Am i right in saying that we have the added complication of well above average sst's in the NE Pacific which promotes high pressure in that locale?

My apologies, just trying to put my point across which hopefully was impartial

Weather has no rules which has been shown many times not least by the winters of 2008/09 - 2012/13 by saying we are on for the warmest year on record are we saying this will continue indefinitely....no just noting the period of colder winters we had not that long ago. Im not by any means saying we are going to have a cold winter but what i am saying is there is no reason to discount it. Even some longer range models are showing at least some interest of the cold persuation which is like hens teeth in itself. Come back to me in mid jan and if nothing has changed i MAY concede

I can see anything happening tbh no winter season is the same and just because we have had above average temps over the last few months has no indication on what the following months will hold, infact if you look at historical years where octobers have been warm....