summer blizzard

Just under 500,000 without power.

Ah, i was watching a different feed. Looks then as though upstate New York is the big winner again.

17 inches in Easford, Connecticut.

5 inches per hour in the heaviest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

South Natick leading at 13 inches at the moment, heaviest snow seems to be west of Boston inland near Worcester, Springfield and Connecticut (possibly high ground at the Appalachians or whatever there called). Boston at 6-8 inches at the moment and predicted to get 18-24 inches at the moment with over 12 hours to come. Low center is coming close to being east of NYC Norwood looks like a proper white out. Got to say that response is great, plenty of ploughs going past. Over 190,000 out of power.

Yes, 2011 was a result of a +AO but zonal winds remaining weak like March 2012. This is essentially what i foresee repeating (not solely based on the stratosphere, this just confirms my initial thoughts in the past few months). Essentially i expect a dominant high pressure south and west of the UK (probably very close) from late Feb, being pushed further east through March (the result either being much warmer and drier than average or a more typical westerly N/S split).

Not from the top to my knowledge. I don't expect the effect to feed through until late Feb anyway.

With the stratosphere still cooling and now below average at 10hpa i remain confident of a warmer than average March...

Really? I'm not referring to the Alps, regular low Northern Italy.

Whilst the models have trended the center south they have also deepened the low which pushes the front further north. Here in Leeds we saw the models pick up on snow for us last weekend (for sunday) but early in the week the models pulled the low south and it looked like we would get nothing at all however the past 24-36 hours we seem to have seen Yorkshire move back into the fray as the low has been forecast to be deeper and better aligned. The real winner for this storm is actually Northern Italy anyway because a secondary low forms and essentially acts like the eastern USA 'nor-easters' gaining moisture from the Med and getting a frigid feed from Europe, the result is over a foot.

Snowing now in New Jersey.

I recall somebody asking why places like the east USA can get 'nor-easters' which produce in excess of a foot and RJS commenting that it was the warm tropical sea and cold dry air. Well its gone unnoticed but we have an example of that over northern Italy from our low on Sunday with over a foot forecast..

Hard to tell but it looks like sleet in Manhattan at the moment.

GFS6z goes for snow. Precipitation looks medium.

GFS goes for rain.

I suspect things will be further west but i don't think a major cold spell is on the way.

I recall in June 2005 i think that a Tesco Express which always had the heat high i went into on a warm night and when i walked back out i had not realized just how warm it was outside because i walked back out and it was like a hairdrier. I never have a problem with cool evenings so i don't mind. August 2003 was horrific, it was 23C one night in London.

Horrid, can't stand humidity. From March-August i actually like the sunny, dry monotonous warmth.

0z GFS looks another dry, sunny and chilly run.

Tut, your late.

Several years in the past have seen slow declines to near average, this looks similar to recent warm springs where the stratosphere does a nose dive.

Essentially it indicates stratospheric cooling in the upper atmosphere which may prompt a tropospheric response. The warm April's of 2009 and 2011 along with March 2012 both saw similar stratospheric conditions beforehand. It's no guarantee but if the rest of the stratosphere follows suit then it's likely that a warmer pattern could prevail. Of course we could go for gold and end up with a high on top of us.

Increase my prediction to 3.9C please, just 0.5C below average. I think the last third of the month could blowtorch.