summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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10.2C for me, an unsettled pattern with frequent north westerlies keepings things generally cool but quite wet.
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It is perhaps unsurprising that we see such a string of cold months when we consider that 2010 also saw an El Nino, -QBO combination (the difference this year being that we have a -PDO which may be killing the El Nino).
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I believe that October will be a wetter than average month (not exceptionally so) but also fairly cool.
I shall go for 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average once somebody enlightens us as to what it is.
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14 months 1C below average or more, 3 months 2C below average or more but all in the past 3 years.
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2010 is the year to beat then.
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Number of below average months this year (including September is 5).
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14.3C to the 20th.
Looks like a comfortably below average month.
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A frustrating article to read if I'm honest.....The yahoo article is basically recycling news from 1994!....The Alcubierre Drive was hypothesized back in 1994, and the inherent problems with physics in this hypotheses are still there but haven't been reported on in this article, for example, the 'Warp Drive' technology is dependent of 'exotic matter' in this instance 'negative matter' (not to be confused with anti-matter, which is something totally different). Negative matter has been theorized by theoretical physicists, but that's all it is, theory, it hasn't been discovered in nature and may well not exist.
Another example of the inherent problems with the physics is that to make this type of technology work is that of causality. Inside the 'warp bubble' the area of space that the space craft resides in would be causally separated from space-time outside the 'bubble' the result being that the craft could not be steered, stopped or manipulated in anyway, so to make this technology work with our current knowledge of theoretical physics would be to have some sort of staging post infrastructure already in place, an analogy of this would be a railway network, where the train rides along pre-laid tracks and cannot deviate off those tracks. This pre-existing 'warp network' whilst not breaking the laws of known physics is well beyond the realms of current technology and resides squarely in realms of science fiction.
Still the fact that scientists and physicists are looking at these scenarios and that cutting edge physics such as String/MTheory & Quantum Loop Gravity theory are providing answers to previously unanswerable questions means that the future bodes well for the possibilities of superluminal space travel within the next few hundred years
Excellent summary.
In this way it more like hyperstream from Andromeda or Stargate.
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Anybody got the official reading of what it fell to last night.
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14.8C to the 17th.
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Probably a mixture of extra northerly winds in the area combined with plenty of cold fresh water from the record sea ice melt causing that cold pool to form.
Will be interesting to see if it lasts through the Autumn.
I suspect that it will last personally.
What we tend to see in spring is massive melt causing cold anomolies whilst warm anomolies in Autumn pre-freeze so the fact that we have such a pattern is encouraging to see.
Personally i find the PDO situation facinating, rather than being moderated by a strengtheing El Nino it looks as though the PDO may be comprehensively winning the battle and El Nino in areas 1 and 2 is fading.
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I saw leaves changing in August last year.
That was likely due to drought stress (late July near me), this is genuine cool Autumnal turning.
I can't wait for November personally, not only can we get snow but get a high pressure over us and we get sunshine and not much above 0C.
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
14.9C to the 16th.
CET should crash this week.
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http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
Very -PDO signal remains and MEI shows that El Nino weakened last month as do the anomaly chart.
Ignoring the warm anomalies over Europe i like that chart, especially the cold anomaly to the north.
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15.1C to the 14th.
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I look at this thread very often but rarely post, just wondering if any of you fellas have a view on the theory of el herrio's volcano errupting and splitting, half of which falling into the sea causing a mega tsunami? Please remove if inappropiate, but id be interesting in your guys views, i must say it does seem plausable.
The Island which will cause the mega-tsunami is Las Palmas, not El Hierro.
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Out of interest, whats the big deal whether snow cover is above or below average? I know snow cover can have some sort of influence on our weather patterns but has it been proven above average snow cover leads to a colder winter for Western Europe? As the chart above shows, even a below average snow cover did not stop a blocking pattern taking place and ended up with the UK having one of its coldest Decembers on record.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking those who are interested in the growing snow cover but I would not worry as a cold lover if the snow cover is below average.
Arctic ice meanwhile, well thats probably is more significant and cause for concern. Looking at the patterns, I think Arctic ice could be quite slow to grow for the rest of September, upper air temperatures on the Atlantic side of the Arctic look really unremarkable but the upper air temps on the Pacific side look a little more colder than in some years so hopefully it will help to cool those SST's down.
Theres a link between October snow cover and the winter AO however at this stage it is just for our indulgence as the winter brigade gears up.
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92L has been declared, 10% chance but about to move into the Carribean.
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Anybody know what temperatures the GFS is forecasting for tuesday night, looks like a cool isotherm.
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I'd be inclined to discard the GDFL on the basis that the globals have been extremely consistent in ending up near the Azores (whether it just weakens or gets picked up is another question).
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Being fair the models are normally reliable at day 5 however the basis for the warmth was that TS Nadine was not yet developed. Since it has devoloped it has become increasingly likely that it will not be picked up the Jet Stream until very close to Europe and therefore any ridge promoted will be well east of the UK.
At this time of year people should always be looking at that the feature driving the pattern is.
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To be taken with a large pinch of salt as with anything else this far out, but it is nice to see some positivity from the Meto regarding a cold winter.
This from Ian Fergusson:
UKMO seasonal model updated for Sept & suggests a 60-80% probability of colder than average winter;
and this from Matt Hugo:
New chart for the winter of 12/13 is up and running covering the temp across the North Pole -
Weak El Nino & perhaps the QBO becoming E'ly in time for winter
Another sign for perhaps colder weather this winter -
http://www.geo.fu-be...bo/qbo_wind.jpg … - The QBO may well be in an E'ly phase rather than W'ly.
Interesting from NOAA - http://www.cpc.ncep....ry/ensodisc.pdf … - Not a bad thing to have a weak El Nino through the up coming winter...
QBO is already -ve.
Looking at the chart it does indicate that the QBO will still be negative in the lower atmosphere but will be westerly in the upper atmosphere so i would summise that we will be looking for upwelling events this year rather than downwelling.
The effects of this i cannot say (if memory serves the lower atmosphere is most important outside of winter but the upper atmosphere most important during winter.
I'm really looking forward to the Autumn foliage first - even the large trees are showing yellow leaves, while some small trees I saw on my way to the city centre were totally yellow and red. Lots and lots of berries too!
Oh, and I saw a flock of geese flying over, so autumn is definitely here..
Oh yes, the cooler minima has certainly caused them to change more quickly than recent years (bar the end of summer 2011 when they had some drought stress).
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Interesting, any early thoughts on winter this year GP?
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15.4C to the 12th.
Now that TS Nadine we see hints that the models have firmed up the pattern and that TS Nadine will not be caught by the Jet Stream far enough west to prompt a plume, as a result of this it now looks like September could be a month of two halves with not a shred of warmth being shown from Monday.
Can't rule out a below average outcome.
Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Blast, can you do one on the QBO and then also overlay that with the MEI.
My rather limited research indicates that a strong El Nino/+QBO combination is possibly the worst thing imaginable, whilst a El Nino/-QBO (winter 2010) is essentially the best though rare.