summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Anyone remember a heavy October fall in recent years?
Anyone remember a heavy October fall in recent years?
2000.
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Snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I'm probably alone in not envying you one bit, it must be such a long winter up there.
I imagine there is constant fall then melt scenarios.
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Great agreement on a cool and unsettled pattern..
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Just comparing 2010 to 2012
In 2010 there seemed to be the perfect set up now leading into winter for the UK getting early snow with incoming snow taking a high and focused move from Siberia then Russia and into Scandinavia etc
It looks that already 2012 is a little behind that and the shape is looking like its more flatter rather than pointing at Finland, so will be interesting how that is shaping up over the next week.
Iceland has got a good covering of snow compared to yesterday and more due over the next 7 days, http://www.yr.no/pla...eyri/long.html
so its looking more 2010 again some very cold temps tonight inc http://weather.glads...y.net/site/BIAR
If the snow heads early for New York,Oslo and Reykjavik I'm thinking we would be unlucky to have to wait till after Xmas for a decent UK covering.
The US and Canada had a very poor winter for snow last year, well it looks like it has a chance this one!
There are lots of ways to have a winter but a weather child of winter 2010 would please a few people i think.
2012 is much better, a much more solid snowpack and more in Canada.
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Anybody got todays chart?
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Small improvements with the stagnant low being a little weaker today, this has the effect of keeping cooler air and increasing the chances of a sunshine and showers setup.
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The best setup for Birmingham is a Channel Low setup.
I can also assert that of the Leeds-Bradford area only south east Leeds (towards Wakefield) is really at low altitude, i am south west of Leeds and it reaches 220m about half a mile from me and most of Bradford is surrounded by height. Not to mention that we are close enough to get showers from a E, NE or NNE winds from the coast.
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I wasn't aware there was a polar low in evidence next week. A Polar Low forms in a very cold flow high in the Arctic usually running down in the main airflow and depositing a lot of snow locally as it comes South. It usually doesn't develop any warm sector at all until it gets well South of it's source. This is not what next weeks Low is. It is a normal depression formed at higher than normal latitudes made deep by steep temperature gradients through the atmosphere.
A true polar low has a symmetrical cold core (hence the comparison to a hurricane which has a symmetrical warm core) so it physically could not have a warm sector.
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I don't like the 12z models, the low is too strong and as a result cooler air is mixed out.
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Now hurricane Sandy and has popped an eye!
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Looks like a borderline cane to me!
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Now thats what i call an inversion..
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Looking at the values on that chart, there is a definite correlation between years with lower values (years when the values are less than 1000 each month) and cooler winters.
1962/63
1977/78
1986/87
2009/2010
are the 4 that stand out.
They are also in clusters of 4's and 5's.
4 years of under 1000 per month values, followed by 5 years of + 10000 per month
and 2 years in between.
so on that basis we have just entered the first full year of +1000 values, with another 4 full years yet to come.
suggesting the highest values are yet to be seen and will probably occur in 2014/2015.
No idea what significance any of this has...just making an observation.
Each solar cycle had either 2 or 3 years at less than 1000 on that list, our minima had 5 full years! Nasa has also repeatedly revised the maximum date from 2015 now down to early 2013 however as i have shown solar flux levels actually peaked so far back in Nov 11 so theres no guarantee we will not slip back.
If we take Jan and Feb below 2C winter months since 1950 and Dec below 3C we can look for a correlation..
Dec
1995
1996
1981
1976
1963
1962
1961
1950
25% were above the 1000 level.
Jan
1963
1979
1985
1987
2010
20% were above 1000.
Feb
1956
1959
1963
1968
1969
1979
1983
1991
A massive 87.5% were above 1000.
We learnt two things from this quick study..
1) It does'nt matter how much above 1000 you are because 50% were above 2000 and 50% were in the 1000-2000 range.
2) Low solar increases the chances of extreme cold in December and January but February shows an increased chance during higher solar years,
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If I were to pick a day next week where on THIS run there was the most potential for snowfall somewhere in the UK, I'd go for the early hours of Wednesday morning,
the dew points down the spine of the UK look marginal but on the right side of marginal and the humidity is quite high nationwide
based on this chart anyway ...
Flows all wrong for anything more than a few showers in NI and Western Scotland.
What interests me is the tight thermal gradient with the cold front on Monday combined with low thicknesses and cool surface air ahead. No snow to low levels but once to watch as low as 300m imo.
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But its very active compared to 08/09
Yes but lower than 79/56.
Its so low by historical standards that you'd still have to group us as being close to solar minima.
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I'm certainly not expecting snow in Leeds.
Pressure is on the high side and the flow is not a long one from the NE and thicknesses are not all that low.
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I do think that solar output is 100% putting the breaks on ssw at this stage.
Since 2010 winter,
solar output its increase has had a marked effect on strat and vortex strength and I do understand this is not all the teleconnections but one of the main drivers.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data
Solar flux data would disagree, for this stage of the solar cycle we are pretty low (not to mention solar flux may have peaked last November).
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It should be noted that models indicate a wishbone effect so whilst it may snow as far south as Yorkshire, it won't more than a few miles inland.
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Some very deep convection, this could get pretty bad for Jamaica, bulls eye.
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A large surge of cold air coming soon.
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Far too much despondency here, a simply look at the theta-t's indicates that it will be pretty cool at the surface right until Nov 6th from this run, no real tropical air.
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Should they have been fired if the evidence was there, yes.
Should there have been a public inquiry if they were employed by the state, perhaps.
Should they be in prison, certainly not and i hope that they appeal to the ECHR.
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Christ, we've got the largest October snow extent on record!
This is great for winter.