summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Observation was a little slow for timing but have now looked more closely..
2-3am - Leeds
3-4am - Manchester
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What time is it getting here haha im all confused with the met office confusing me regarding times.
It took about 3 hours for the leading edge to go from Edinburgh to Newcastle, Manchester is not too much further south so 3-6.
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Pennines are definitely splitting the precipitation, those to the west are going to struggle.
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There has never been a snowless winter in Leeds. Not even once.
There have been two snowless months however, Decembers 2002 and 2006.
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Major event which we need to report which is that the North Californian drought is over as monumental precipitation totals are streaming in due to a quasi-stationary low drawing up a tropical moisture plume with semi-permanent south westerlies.
Rocky Mountains nearby (above 7000 feet) are expecting snowfall totals in excess of 10 feet.
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NWS forecast for Mount Shasta through Sunday. Insane....
Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a south southwest wind 75 to 85 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
- Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 21. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a south southwest wind 90 to 95 mph increasing to 100 to 105 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
- Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 15 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph decreasing to 75 to 85 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.
- Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
- Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.
- Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.
- Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 18. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible
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You need to avoid speculating about snow in certain threads due to bias.
I recall last Feb when it looked strongly like (bar 1 or 2 minor models) there would be little snow west of London, south of the M4. I made the mistake of going to the southern regional thread and asserting this claim along with the general discussion thread for the event and had 11 southern members basically call rubbish and say but.. but.. you don't know what your talking about.. Needless to say, i was correct.
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Shap down to -5C now.
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Yup, it's down to -1.5C here.
Plus to be honest how many times have we seen fronts be marginal and yet produce snow in Leeds (i'd assume due to topography tipping the balance).
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Radar signature definitely improved today, now heavy precipitation just north of Glasgow.
Scotland thread reporting this PPN as a wintry mix with snow higher elevations but rain/sleet lower down
as they say in the MOD trends?
C.S
They've had the disadvantage of being close to the front during daylight, as i say places are already down to -2C such as Leeds-Bradford airport.
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I'm pretty confident of snow overnight.
Despite the wintry mix in Scotland today we have the advantage of night and the fact that the temperature is already -2C here.
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Precipitation only light to moderate on radar.
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How come we never get these features pushing down enveloped in sub -5 850s? Irks me summat chronic!
The colder the air the drier the air generally.
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Scratch that, updated to 6z run and it has rain at 1C, 2.8mm.
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Its that big blob of precipitation to the North & West of Scotland, its going to move South across the Country overnight.
In that case the GFS is a major bust.
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GFS seems to make very little of tommorow morning showing no precipitation.
Met Office have upgraded the risk for sunday night with a snow to sleet event here.
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Is our precipitation tonight yet to form?
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http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2011/10oct/volcano1011.cfm
http://www.acsys.it/volume/php/home.php?&id=9
Tick tock, approaching 70 years.
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it has developed way south SB. btw, ecm developed another one of these in its 00z run and BOM does the same on its 12z. is this normal for this time of year ?
It's not normal buts it's origins do not make it a technical sub-tropical depression as it is fully barllonic, not bartropic.
It was a tropical wave.
Irrelevant, tropical waves are nothing more than collections of thunderstorms and do not have warm bar-tropic cores.
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That tropical depression out in the mid-atlantic is starting to annoy me now. What on earth is it doing there? It seems to be winding up into a nasty little feature.
It's not tropical.
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FAX at 84 hours occludes the front faster making a Monday snow event more likely..
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GFS0z is snow to rain at best for all of the UK but FAX is much more amplified at 120 vs 108.
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png
Slightly better for Monday i think.
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ECWMF backs the GFS for next Monday, anybody from the triple point north will likely see snow...
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http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/bd11
GFS calls it for me. Monday 12pm, heavy snow (some changes obviously before then).
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Yet another run which looks very interesting north of the Midlands on Monday, we have an incoming front with surface SE winds (indicating undercutting) and a tight thermal gradient with the -5C isotherm present ahead of an occluding front which develops a wave on it.
If this backs a little west then those of us in the north east should be getting very excited.
North of England Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Considering the GFS has barely given anything from this (2.7mm max) i've looked at this from a nowcast point of view along with NMM.