summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Still little model agreement at day 8.
GFS and GEM have a cyclonic circulation whilst the ECWMF has much higher pressure over the UK.
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QBO (Negative)
2007
2005
1998
1996
1994
1989
1984
1979
MEI (Neutral-Positive)
2009
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
1992
1990
1983
1980
1979
PDO (Negative)
2011
2010
2008
2000
1999
1994
GLAMM (Negative)
2010
2005
1998
1988
August-October
1979
1994
1998
2005
Primary analogue opposes secondary analogues.
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Very cold at the surface on the GFS18z..
I'm normally very skeptical however with events coming into the high resolution i am increasingly confident of some kind of cold setup be it high pressure on top, a northerly or an easterly.
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I could be wrong but looking at that our problem is the low off the west coast of the USA, if we can back this west and weaker then heights should build further north.
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Signs of warming forecast at 1 hPa (top of strat) on the GFS as well as ECM.
Sometimes these warmings make there way down to lower levels (mid strat), so worth watching. I am expecting this to work it's way down following the increased wave activity, but I am unsure how strong this will be.
I recall reading somewhere that the placement of a warming is important and that Atlantic warmings are generally less good.
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A lovely inversion from the 6z..
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Some would argue that this was the first spell which heralded the return of the easterly in winter as it was followed by Fed/March 2006, the Channel lows of Fed 2007, the almost of 2008 and then winters 2009, 2010 and even 2011/2012. Before this we had gone several years without a notable easterly even if this one was notable for the wrong reasons, mainly that snow fell frequently but the lack of a cold pool lead to melting.
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A lovely cold run at the surface in FI..
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Models certainly trending colder, in particular the GFS and ECWMF doing well on a hemispheric scale.
Also of note is that 201 members are reading this topic.
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Solar flux is still at moderate to low levels, not yet even beating Nov 11.
The current solar output will not be a problem.
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The colours here are pretty good this year - I'm shocked that some parts of the country have mostly bare trees or no colour at all - how dull.
I agree, its been lovely and extended this year.
I'd say for color that this may be the best Autumn since perhaps 2007.
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PDO still negative.
QBO still easterly.
MEI still neutral.
Little reason to think much will change so i will go for 4.1C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average.
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I often end up missing the show because its not on regularly but i do love it and could see Prof Brian Coz taking the reigns and injecting some new life into it.
I suspect if that happened and they gave it half an hour after the 10pm news for example we could eventually see an 8 or 9pm hourly show.
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I think that modelling could be a lot worse, the vortex is still been periodically attacked by wave breaking from both the Atlantic and Pacific as the 18z run showed.
Compared to last year this is much better.
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5.9C to the 8th.
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Some upgrades today it seems, 2-5 for New York 6-9 inland.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1217 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012
...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ069-070-080130-
/O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-121108T1100Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1217 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY.
* LOCATIONS...EASTERN PASSAIC...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN
ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...ROCKLAND... AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER
COUNTIES.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 800 FEET.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.
* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION ALSO COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
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No major change since yesterday..
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Not strictly stratospheric but we got the second lowest October Ao value on record losing out to 2009 by 0.024.
August and September values were also close.
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2
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So after looking at the data it looks like it won't be quite the classic that some of these events are (though high ground areas like Wichester could do very well) primarily because the flow in advance of the system is blocked to the north by high pressure thus the storm hits cool, dry air (850's between 0C and -5C) rather than a good cold pool from Canada. What this means is that things are more marginal and we need evaporative cooling which largely depends on how far west or east the storm is, too close to the coast and upland and inland areas get hammered but its a rain event anywhere near the coast, too far east and its mainly snow but not especially severe since the heaviest convection is on or off the coast, this is what we have seen the models lean towards,
So the good point is that we have gone from snow vs rain to snow vs sea but it now looks like a moderate event for populated areas with probably only 8-12" reserved for the highest land.
A far cry from Halloween last year in which records were been broken for the time of year.
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Independent prediction from another forum (also of note is a 2-4ft storm surge)..
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For anybody that may not have heard, round 2 is on the way with a Nor'Easter tracking up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday with gales and potentially even snow.
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IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST, IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW TO
FALL, EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL
WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
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Nor'Easter forecast on Wednesday for the eastern Atlantic seaboard!
Just a week or so after Sandy New York could well see its first heavy fall!
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Sadly, nothing shown before Dec 2nd.