summer blizzard
-
Posts
18,606 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
9
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by summer blizzard
-
-
Ahh, that makes sense.
-
I think we need to accept that this intial cold spell isn't going to bring your typical convective snowfalls via very cold upper temps spreading from the E/NE. What does look likely is below average temps with the chance of maybe frontal snowfall on the leading edge of any precip moving up from the SW.
This may take a little longer to hopefully bring colder upper temps with the timeframe being between +240 to +384.
GFS consistently has the cold air arriving at days 7-9 on every run, ECWMF only delays this on the 0z run because it keeps a northerly for a while.
Cheer up people.
-
I've no idea how to read that.
-
I do not think that we would cope well but i think that we could.
The fact is that the effect of winter weather was amplified due to the poor attitude of Britains the last 2 winters.
If you do not want to slip then start using proper footwear (women especially slipped because of poor footwear) and also use a stick/ski stick to keep your balance.
Forget this cannot get to work rubbish, there are less than 5 days in the past two winters when there have been no bus or train services in Leeds (which has been hit comparatively worse to most, especially in winter 2010). If you cannot drive then get a bus or train.
Buy snow tyres in July when they are dirt cheap.
Bulk by frozen goods and just leave the in the garden.
There are so many things which people can do but did not, instead choosing to blame the government for not gritting enough.
-
It seems that the reason the GFS18z gets away with stalling the low but getting the cold air is that it makes very little of what was forecast to be a low bombing from the south west and as such little mild air is dragged up with it. At this stage i would have to assume this run to be an outlier in that regard however it is possible that the models could drop it.
Great to see the ensembles are very much on board now and that sufficiently cold air will be arriving on day 7-9.
On a lighter note those wanting to see a true blizzard should go to southern Scandinavia in about a week..
-
Extremely impressive run synoptically from the ECWMF with the cold uppers breaking through at day 9 (a day behind GFS and JMA).
My personal expectation past day 10 from the ECWMF would be for the Atlantic High to amplify west of the UK and conglomerate with the Arctic High between Svalbard and Greenland so certainly no danger in my opinion of the pattern sinking.
-
GFS12z high resolution is certainly an upgrade in terms of cold pooling however it will be interesting to see what the ECWMF and JMA day 8 runs suggest.
-
Todays runs are an upgrade from both the GFS and ECWMF with further advancement into Scandinavia of cold uppers at day 8.
-
One of the days had a mean of -4.0C
I meant for the period before the 24th as we are quite similar to that in synoptic and cold pooling.
-
GFS18z is certainly the best run yet for maintaining cold uppers although i can't stress enough how we need to keep the high away from Scandinavia so that we can drop a trough into Scandinavia and back the cold west quickly.
Looking at the JMA, GFS and ECWMF it seems that each disagrees with the positioning of the trough south of the UK and that it what is making the difference between the snow and drizzle scenarios.
BBC Weather already hinting at a possible significant change to cold weather for the end of the month.
Darren Bett in this video explains: http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/20419248
You can tell some forecasters love to go into deeper detail than the TV forecasts.
-
The downward slide of the monthly CET in Nov 2010 was as folllows:
1-20 ... 7.4 C
1-22 ... 7.2 C
1-24 ... 6.9 C
1-26 ... 6.3 C
1-28 ... 5.7 C
1-30 ... 5.2 C
That was a paradigm shift.
Wow, do you have the actual daily means?
-
Models looking a bit colder today, but probably as cold as they are going to get in a mobile flow in late November.
Based on the 12z GFS, I would be lowering my expectations to between 6.1C and 6.6C, although the next couple of days will see rises (back to 7.3C possibly).
Yes, the main danger i suspect would be minima given the cyclonic moist flow from the continent though maxima should be very suppressed thus comfortable downward trends.
What were the daily means before the cold air arrived on the 24th in 2010? The setup looks similar..
-
Has anybody set eyes on the rather epic JMA 12z? 1050mb Arctic high + much colder uppers arriving by T192.....
Very similar to the ECM, look at the heights stretching from Greenland to Russia.
Thats an interesting one, seems to be caused by the split occurring east of the UK.
-
Models backing the cold west at day 8 with every run, -10 upper air profile now into Scandinavia..
-
I think that some people need to take a more pragmatic view of GFS FI and remember 2 things..
1) It's FI
2) Whilst it may be poor for snow, not once does the upper air breach 0C for the bulk of the UK and with high pressure we will likely see strong inversions.
In terms of the modelling the ECWMF has significant potential with a cold pool to the far east slowly moving westward and the trough to our south elongating in such a way as to drag a more northerly element down with subsequent uppers.
-
Movements toward a solution this evening then with both ECWMF and GFS moving towards each other.
I'd agree that the day 10 ECWMF chart would not produce anything for low ground (above 200m and i think it would be enough) however at the very least it looks like a setup conducive to frost and sunshine. It's also notable that cold air is approaching from the east and the trough is being reinforced.
-
The UKMO and GEM look very similar at 144hrs they have a later phasing of low pressure in the west Atlantic, theres less margin for error though and we would need a shortwave ejected under the ridge afterwards.
The much less risky option is the higher resolution GFS, here because of the stronger ridge ahead and earlier phasing and amplified trough any shortwave is likely to be ejected se'wards.
It really depends how lucky you feel! The UKMO could develop better longer term than the GFS but it comes with that added risk.
The GEM and ECWMF runs arguably had the better setup because the trough gets further east rather than stalling beneath the UK as per the GFS, i'd also note that GFS does tend to be too bullish at phasing.
-
7.0C to the 18th.
I would say we look like sticking around this value (slight rise followed by a slight fall) with a slight cooloff possible in the last couple of days of the month.
Be suprised if the final figure is higher than 7.0 or lower than 6.5
I'm a little more bullish in that for the first time in days two models are in agreement at day 7-10 (ECWMF and GEM). These models indicate downward pressure from the 25th onward and would probably have us below 6.5C by months end so 6.2C or below would be a possibility after adjustments (another month 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average).
-
GFS12z essentially backs the GFS6z run with a pretty close evolution however as noted earlier this goes against the ECWMF and GEM solution in splitting and stalling the trough too early at day 8.
Unless the ECWMF and GEM 12z runs capitulate i shall be backing those over the GFS.
-
As great as the GFS6z run was i'm inclined to dump it on the basis that even at day 8 (still high resolution) GEM and ECWMF are in agreement whilst the GFS is far too rapid.
GFS out on its own...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
ECWMF and GEM...
-
So I take it not a lot of people think much of 'faux cold' then? I for one wouldn't mind it, the outlook could certainly be a lot worse imo
I love it, sunshine, fog and frost.
The high pressure over the uk scenario is hardly favoured by the gfs 12z ensembles...
Which setup is? I'd also add that upper temperatures are largely irrelevant when pressure is bang on top.
-
A split at day 11 from the 12z before a reformation at day 13.
-
1
-
-
GFS12z is closer to ECWMF0z than GFS6z in my opinion.
Another very cold FI at the surface.
We may not get the easterly but i do think that we be quite confident of a fair cool-down.
-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
7.2C to the 16th.
Modelling is at odds right now however most runs seem to indicate high pressure influencing the UK and as such with the potential for an inversion i would say that below 7C should be odds on.
December CET (2012/13 Competition)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Very difficult.
I certainly think that the first third will be well below average (possibly sub-zero) but any proper stratospheric warming will not occur until early to mid December and will have a lag, i also think that the tropospheric signal for a time may be not be so kind.
I shall punt for 3.6C which is 1C below the 1981-2010 average however this if anything could be too high.