summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Not too good for snow you are correct, however it will still aid in cooling the ground. Soil moisture content can actually be quite important.
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If its even 11.7C we are all screwed.
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So it's like ENSO is switched off to an affect that won't distrupt the QBO/PDO's power? which means now they can be let lose to enhance the risk of a cold winter?
In theory though there is likely to be some 'atmospheric memory' so to speak which may lend to a weak El Nino like setup at times (though thats not bad anyway).
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Looks like an overall cool outlook to me bar the weekend when we may get some high minima.
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Will be interesting to monitor the polar outbreak indicated by the ensembles around the 13th (isotherm around 0C).
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That atlantic high anomaly is quite persistent at the moment.
The anomaly chart for September just gone is fairly similar as well.
Looks like an El Nino pattern over the USA with a +PNA and a southern stream.
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Does anybody actually have the link just to confirm the CET outturn?
I did quite well this month.
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Possible vortex splitting going on there? Or Not?
Looks like more of a displacement to me, it would push what vortex there is south in the Atlantic as the high built over the pole.
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is this good or bad?
A neutral ENSO would allow other factors to dominate like the QBO and PDO and they are looking pretty good for the moment.
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El Nino definitely collapsing over the last two weeks, could be neutral/negative by winter.
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Interesting high latitude profile...
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It may look warm on that chart but heights building over the Arctic would deliver cooler weather down the line.
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You live in a large city, but with pretty snowy winters by UK standards. I think you've got it good.
I agree, only 2 Decembers (2002 and 2006) have not seen now, every other winter month has this century.
In England, probably Newcastle is the only major city that is snowier (possible smaller cities like Norwich as well).
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In such an intense low scenario even the origin would not help us because of the warmer sector associated with it which would likely mean a rain to snow event at best, additionally with the source being so cold the cold front would likely be fairly dead once it reached England.
The best scenario for me would be a front approaching from the south west and then stalling as it slowly moved east so a October 1987 track, Channel Low tracking too far north. With that said the best single event was 6th January 2010 which saw a front stall as a wave developed from the north, i got 21cm in 10 hours.
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NHC have it stalling again in about 5 days and last nights GFS12z had it still there on day 16.
For those wondering why i would say that it is simply the location, whether the Jet is strong or weak to the south west of the Azores there is generally always a upper high and warm sea temperatures, couple this with a weaker than normal Jet and you can see why it just floats about.
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My favoured setup is an occlusion stalling from just about any direction.
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I only joined this forum last year, and am still on a MASSIVE learning curve -I know it's hard to accurately predict anything from more than 72 hours away - but at what point do you think we might allow ourselves to get just a little bit, properly, excited? Mid-October when the whole SSW thing kicks in (assuming everything else is still falling into place by then?) I suppose what I'd like to know is, if all the factors continue to look promising for a cold winter as October progresses, is it possible that other factors could unexpectedly come into play bringing it all crashing down around our ears?
You can tell the events of winter 2011/2012 have had a long-term effect on my psyche...
SSW's don't happen in October, that is simply when we can judge whether they are likely to occur later.
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Looks like 90% went above me so i should do well this month..
13.5 ... Snowstorm1, summer blizzard ...... --- average 1701-1800, 1901-2000 ---
13.4 ...
13.3 ... --- average 1659-2011 ---
13.2 ... Isolated Frost
13.1 ... Wales 123098 ...... --- average 1801-1900 ---
13.0 ...
12.9 ... Harve
12.8 ... Ferryhill Weather, cheeky_monkey
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To think that after the very mild first few days we will have yet another month 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average.
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Blast, can you do one on the QBO and then also overlay that with the MEI.
My rather limited research indicates that a strong El Nino/+QBO combination is possibly the worst thing imaginable, whilst a El Nino/-QBO (winter 2010) is essentially the best though rare.
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10.2C for me, an unsettled pattern with frequent north westerlies keepings things generally cool but quite wet.
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It is perhaps unsurprising that we see such a string of cold months when we consider that 2010 also saw an El Nino, -QBO combination (the difference this year being that we have a -PDO which may be killing the El Nino).
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I believe that October will be a wetter than average month (not exceptionally so) but also fairly cool.
I shall go for 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average once somebody enlightens us as to what it is.
Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
You would'nt last long long in either naked and unless you melt the ice you'd be dead from both quite quickly.