summer blizzard
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I would of thought that a La Nino would encourage a lower than average hurrican season on its own because it favours a Sub-Tropical Jet Stream which would mean a higher chance of westerly shear however due to the fact that sea surface temperatures are higher than average , then this would favour a active hurricane season, so i would hypothesise that we will see a lot of Tropical Waves and Atlantic Hurricanes however they will not survive long.
I do not know how the MJO affects tropical activity, could somebody post a link.
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Here are my thoughts on the 2006 hurricane system.
I believe that the coming hurricane season will be a early starter with Tropical Waves forming as early as April with one of the Tropical Waves making it to Tropical Depression status.
During May, i believe that there will be another two Tropical Depressions and also Tropical Storm Alberto with one of the Tropical Depressions taking a path similar to Hurricane Beta, which could cause problems with flooding.
During June, i expect category 1 Hurricane Debby, and Tropical Storms Beryl and Chris with one of the Tropical Storms again forming in a similar place to Hurricane Beta, causing problems with flooding, i also expect a few Tropical Depressions to form with one of them making landfall near Cuba, which again could cause problems with flooding.
During July, i expect category 2 Hurricane Florence, category 1 hurricanes Gorden and Enesto, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect Tropical Storm Helene to form and hit Paurto Rico along with several Tropical Depressions forming with one making landfall in the Bahamas.
During August, i expect category 4 Hurricane Issac, category 3 hurricanes Joyce and Kirk, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect category 2 Hurricanes Leslie and Michael, with one making landfall in Florida and one making lanfall somewhere in the Gulf Of Mexico, i also expect Tropical Storms Nadine, Oscar and Patty along with several Tropical Depressions forming.
During September, i expect i expect category 5 Hurricane Rafael, category 4 hurricanes Sandy and Tony, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect category 3 Hurricanes Valerie and William, with one making landfall in Florida and one making lanfall somewhere in the Gulf Of Mexico, i also expect category 1 hurricanes Alpha, Beta and Gamma along with Tropical Storms Epsilon, Zeta and Cappa along with several Tropical Depressions forming.
I will update this forecast monthly.
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Moderators, please move my forecast to the forecast thread once discussion has ended.
Firstly, i will start by saying that although pressure built to the east drquantly as i forecast, high pressure never retrogressed far enougth west for the cold air to really affect the British Isles.
February
I have based my February forecast entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies as sea surface temperature anomolies have a one month time lag before they effect synoptics, by using sea surface temperature anomolies i am able to forecast the path of the Jet Stream, low pressure will be above the Jet Stream and high pressure will be below the Jet Stream, the ideal position of the Jet Stream for sustained negative NAO weather is around the lattitude of Spain.
February week 1 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under south westerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to a ridge to the east retrogressing however i do not believe the cold air will reach the British Isles, temperatures for this week will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine below average.
February week 2 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under south westerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine below average.
February week 3 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy staying in the northern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under southerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine above average.
February week 4 - The Jet Stream will come out of Aisa on a northerly track indicating a strong Pacific Jet Stream however due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, the Jet Stream will berificate with most of the energy staying in the northern arm of the Jet Stream before the Jet Stream becomes confluent as it approaches the United States Of America and there is a zonal flow, as the Jet Stream approaches Newfoundland, a secondary low will develop forcing the Jet Stream on a southerly track as the primary low becomes a cut-off low however due to high pressure over Europe, the Jet Stream will rise northward putting the British Isles under southerly winds however as the low pressure moves into Scandinavia it will be forced south due to the Bartlett High towards Greece, temperatures for this week will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine above average.
CET - 7.2C, 3C above average
Rainfall - Average
Sunshine - Average
Winter Summary
Assuming that December was 4.4C, January was 4.1C and February is 7.2C, the overall winter CET will be 5.2C, which is 0.7C above average. Because December had around 70% of rainfall and January will have around 40% of average, if February has around 100% of average, then this winter will have around 70% of average rainfall. Because December had around 150% of average sunsine and January will have around 100% of average rainfall, then if February has around 100% of average sunshine, then this winter will have around 120% of average sunshine.
March
My March and April forecasts are based upon teleconnections over the past three months, which i believe can give a indication as to future weather patterns.
Here is the raw data for March...
March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
March week 3 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
March week 4 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.
March week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.
March week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
March week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
CET - 5.2C, 1.1C below average
Sunshine - Below average
Rainfall - Above average
April
Here is the raw data for April...
April week 1 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA
April week 2 - POSITIVE NAO - POSITIVE AO - POSITIVE PNA
April week 3 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
April week 4 - POSITIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
April week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
April week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA however the Jet Stream will be zonal and rise northward sharply due to a positive AO meaning that there is no ridge to berificate the Jet Stream and keep most of the energy on a southerly track and as a result a Bartlett High with a notherly tracking Jet Stream and a positive NAO will prevail for this week, temperatures will be 1C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
April week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negitive PNA however due to the fact that there is a negative AO, the Polar Votex will sink into Baffin Island and as a result, while the NAO is positive, pressure will build from the east of the British Isles and there will be a easterly, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
April week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
CET - 9.6C, 1.5C above average
Rainfall - Average
Sunshine - Average
May
My May to July forecasts are based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.
May Week 1 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge off the eastern seaboard of the United States Of America, with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic and as the Jet Stream appraoaches the British Isles, it will be zonal and due to the fact that high pressure will be centred to the south west of the British Isles, the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 2 - The second week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 3 - The third week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 4 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a slightly diffluent Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will become conflent with all of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will be zonal as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be south westerly, with temperatures 0.5C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
CET - 12.4C, 1.1C above average
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
Spring Summary
I expect March to contrast strongly with the rest of the Spring, i also expect this Spring to be dry and sunny with a CET of 9.1C, which is 0.5C above average.
June
June Week 1 - The first week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 2 - The second week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south or south east of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 3 - The third week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become diffluent in association with a ridge over the United States Of America with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream as two cut-off lows develop either side of the United States so that most of the energy leaving the United States Of America will be in the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the mid Atlantic to the west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly, temperatures will be average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 4 - The fourth week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will remain confluent with one arm of the Jet Stream providing warm air advection to Greenland while another confluent Jet Stream develops around the lattitude of Mexico which thenn beaurificates in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream prompting a toppler, mean wind direction will be westerly to north westerly, temperatures 0.2C below average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
CET - 14.3C, 0.2C above average
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
July
July week 1 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a maean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, a secondary low will develop and become a cut-off low around Newfoundland as warm air advects to Greenland and beaurificates the Jet Stream again however due to the allignment of the sea surface temperature anomolies the northern arm of the split Jet Stream will be around Iceland and as a result, there will be a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
July week 2 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
July week 3 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
July week 4 - The Jet Stream will leave Aisa beaurificated due to a mean ridge in the Pacific, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, it will remain diffluent with one arm providing warm air advection to Greenland and beaurificating the Jet Stream downstream while one arm rises in association with a ridge near the east coast of the United States Of America meaning that there is once again a mid-lattitude block over the British Isles, temperatures will be average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
CET - 16.5C, average
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
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Verglas, i think that the energy demand can be explained by people not actually needing to use so much energy, when somebody looks out of a window and sees frost, they assume it will warm up during the day and do not use as much energy however when people see snow they assume the big freeze has arrived regardless of whether warm air is following behind it.
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I must agree with you, while it has been cold we have only had four days of snow although in my opinion it is the best winter since 2001.
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In regards to the recent trends, i would say that while the trend may be in place for colder winters it is also there for drier winters, last winter was the eigth driest on record and this January is set to be the fifth driest on record at the moment with the prospect of no precipitation this week, i hate to say this but i actually hope the trend reverses as i am not willing to turn this country into a desert just for colder winters.
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I think the best anologue to this winter so far is the winter of 1964 which was cold yet dry and snowless in many areas however in my opinion, this has been the best winter i can remember and as a result it is clear that this is a winter of extreme regional variations in which the east will probably say it is a good winter while people in the west will think it is a bad winter, this was the case in summer 2003.
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Here are the maximum temperatures in January 1963 until today in several cities.
January 1st
Glasgow - 2C
London - -1C
Belfast - 1C
January 2nd
Glasgow - 0C
London - -2C
Belfast - 1C
January 3rd
Glasgow - 0C
London - 0C
Belfast - 1C
January 4th
Glasgow - 2C
London - 1C
Belfast - 1C
January 5th
Glasgow - 2C
London - 1C
Belfast - 0C
January 6th
Glasgow - 1C
London - 2C
Belfast - 2C
January 7th
Glasgow - 0C
London - 0C
January 8th
Glasgow - 2C
London - 1C
Belfast - 2C
January 9th
Glasgow - 2C
London - 1C
Belfast - 1C
January 10th
Glasgow - 2C
London - 1C
Belfast - 1C
January 11th
Glasgow - 2C
London - -2C
Belfast - 1C
January 12th
Glasgow - -7C
London - -4C
Belfast - -3C
January 13th
Glasgow - -1C
London - -4C
Belfast - -6C
January 14th
Glasgow - 3C
London - 2C
Belfast - 1C
January 15th
London - 1C
Belfast - 1C
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Mr Data, thanks for the data, i believe that i have found a pattern concerning June, if we look at three warm June months, 1676,
1786 and 1896, we can see that there is a 110 year gap with the next cycle occuring in 2006.
Mr Data, are the three years which i mentioned in the top five warmest Junes?????????
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As i was only two during that event, i am unable to remember it although it does sound very interesting.
As for your trip to Moscow, within two days upper air temperatures will be around -25C and due to the fact that high pressure is present, you can expect an inversion which means that you should expect temperatures of between -30C and -40C by day, by night you may reach -50C.
Just a bit too cold for me.
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Could people post information about years ending in six as all i know is the following.
February 1986 - sub zero CET
June 1976 - hottest on record
Summer 1976 - hottest on record
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June
My June forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.
June Week 1 - The first week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 2 - The second week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become confluent with all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, however around the lattitude of Mexico, another confluent Jet Stream wil develop although there will be a cut off low will develop underneath a ridge over Newfoundland and as a result, a lot of the energy will go into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic with a extension to the south or south east of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, temperatures will be around 0.2C above average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 3 - The third week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will become diffluent in association with a ridge over the United States Of America with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream as two cut-off lows develop either side of the United States so that most of the energy leaving the United States Of America will be in the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the mid Atlantic to the west of the British Isles, meaning that the wind direction will be westerly, temperatures will be average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
June Week 4 - The fourth week of June will feature a mean trough in the Pacific with a beaurificated Jet Stream and a cut-off low in the central Pacific with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches The United States Of America, it will remain confluent with one arm of the Jet Stream providing warm air advection to Greenland while another confluent Jet Stream develops around the lattitude of Mexico which thenn beaurificates in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream prompting a toppler, mean win direction will be westerly to north westerly, temperatures 0.2C below average, rainfall below average and sunshine above average.
CET - 14.3C
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
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May
My May forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.
May Week 1 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge off the eastern seaboard of the United States Of America, with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic and as the Jet Stream appraoaches the British Isles, it will be zonal and due to the fact that high pressure will be centred to the south west of the British Isles, the wind direction will be westerly to south westerly, with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 2 - The second week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 3 - The third week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the southern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, which will cause the Jet Stream to further beaurificate however this weakened Jet Stream will make conditions ideal for a Barlett High with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream and westerly to south westerly winds with temperatures 0.2C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
May Week 4 - The first week of May will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a slightly diffluent Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will become conflent with all of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will be zonal as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be south westerly, with temperatures 0.5C above average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
CET - 12.4C
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
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April
My April forecast is based entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies, this is because the Met Office has found a link between sea surface temperature anomolies and synoptics six months down the line, the reason why i do not use this in the medium term of my forecast is because i believe that teleconnection patterns give a higher confidence rating to my forecast in the medium term.
April Week 1 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will become more meridonal and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly to north westerly with temperatures 0.1C below average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
April Week 2 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific beaurificating the Jet Stream with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, it will be flat and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly with temperatures average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
April Week 3 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with the Jet Stream becoming confluent as it exits Siberia with all of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Newfoundland with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, it will be flat and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly with temperatures average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
April Week 4 - The first week of April will feature a mean ridge in the Pacific with a zonal Jet Stream and all the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, as the Jet Stream approaches the United States Of America, the Jet Stream will once again beaurificate due to a ridge over Canada and the United States Of America with most of the energy again going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream, there will be a mean ridge in the Atlantic, as the Jet Stream approaches the British Isles, the Jet Stream will become more meridonal and as a result while pressure will be above average, the wind direction will be westerly to north westerly however high pressure will be centred just to the south and west of the British Isles, with temperatures 0.1C below average, sunshine above average and rainfall below average.
CET - 7.9C
Rainfall - below average
Sunshine - above average
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Here are my indipendant CET forecasts based on anologues, these are seperate to my forecasts CET forecasts.
December 2005 - 4.6C - 0.5C below average
January - 0.7C - 3.5C below average
February - 4.1C - 0.1C below average
Winter CET - 3.1C - 1.4C below average
March - 6.9C - 0.6C above average
April - 8.9C - 0.8C above average
May - 11C - 0.3C below average
Spring CET - 8.9C - 0.4C above average
June - 16.4C - 2.4C above average (2nd hottest on record)
July - 17.5C - 1C above average (9th hottest on record)
August - 16.5C - 0.3C above average
Summer CET - 16.8C - 1.2C above average
September - 15.3C - 1.5C above average (3rd hottest on record)
October - 12.9C - 2.5C above average (4th hottest on record)
November - 5.6C - 1.3C below average
Autum CET - 11.3C - 0.9C above average
December - 3.7C - 1.4C below average
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Europe braced for Russian winter
The latest TWO 45 day forecast is now available here and points toward often very wintry weather during January and the first half of February. We expect temperatures to be significantly below the average especially in southern and eastern areas, and throughout the period there will be a higher than average risk of substantial snowfall.
Usually Europe looks towards the Atlantic for its weather during the winter and this generally brings rather unsettled conditions with some colder interludes but also long spells of much milder weather. Occasionally we have winters where we need to look towards the east and Russia for our weather and it looks as though this year may well be one of those.
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Here is the rest of my forecast...
Feburary
My February and March forecasts are based upon teleconnections over the past three months, which i believe can give a indication as to future weather patterns.
Here is my raw data.
February week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
February week 2 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
February week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
February week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
February week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO however a mid Atlantic Azores High will ridge toward a Greenland ridge, the NAO will be negative and the Jet Stream will be meridonal with north westerlies occuring once low pressure has passed however the ridge will topple over Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C below average and rainfall and sunshine will be average for the first week.
February week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO which will cause the Azores High to settle over Europe around the lattitude of France, temperatures will be 1C above average and rainfall will be below average during this period while sunshine will be above average.
February week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler however the ridge will topple over the British Isles giving clear skies and night time frosts, temperatures will be 0.5C below average, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
February week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will link a Scandinavian ridge allowing a easterly to take hold with a southerly tracking Jet Stream and negative NAO, temperatures will be 1C below average during this period, rainfall will be below average and sunshine will be above average.
CET - 3.2C
Sunshine - above average
Rainfall - below average
Here is the raw data for March...
March week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
March week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
March week 3 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
March week 4 - POSOTIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
March week 1 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.
March week 2 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a negative PNA however due to a negative AO, the Jet Stream will beaurificate in the mid Atlantic and as a result, the Jet Stream will be pushed south and a Scandinavian High will rigde west however it will have no support from the Greenland High due to a negative PNA, temperatures will be 1C below average, sunshine and rainfall will be around average.
March week 3 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
March week 4 - The Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will beaurificate the Jet Stream however due to the Scandinavian High being too far south and east, the Jet Stream will rise northwards and high pressure will settle over eastern Europe, temperatures will be 0.5C above average, rainfall will be above average and sunshine will be below average.
CET - 5.2C
Sunshine - below average
Rainfall - above average
Winter Summary
Overall i believe that this winter will have a CET of 2.8C, which is 1.7C below average assuming that the December CET is 4.6C however i also expect this winter to be categorised as both sunny and dry as well as cold due high pressure being dominant however i expect notable wintry spells, specifically from mid January to Mid February, overall, i expect the NAO and AO to be negative, and a slightly posotive PNA.
January to March Summary
I expect this period to have a overall CET of 3.4C, which is 1.5C below average, i also expect this period to be categorised as both sunny and dry as well as cold due high pressure being dominant however i expect notable wintry spells, specifically from mid January to Mid February and the first half of March, overall, i expect the NAO and AO to be negative, and a posotive PNA.
Please allow a 0.5C margin of error for all CET estimates.
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Moderators, please move my forecast to the forecast thread once discussion has ended.
January
I have based my January forecast entirely on sea surface temperature anomolies as sea surface temperature anomolies have a one month time lag before they effect synoptics, by using sea surface temperature anomolies i am able to forecast the path of the Jet Stream, low pressure will be above the Jet Stream and high pressure will be below the Jet Stream, the ideal position of the Jet Stream for sustained negative NAO weather is around the lattitude of Spain.
January week 1 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent hower the main ridge over the United States Of America will be pushed over the United States Of America due to the strength of the Pacific Jet Stream and as a result the PNA will be only marginally positive, due to a positive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track however the Jet Stream will become confluent before berificating again in the mid Atlantic with most of the energy going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream however there will be a ridge over Scandinavia which will force low pressure to take a south easterly track across the British Isles and as a result temperatures will be below average with the possibility of winds veering easterly at times although winds will be predominantly south easterly, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.
January week 2 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over the United States of America retrogressing to the north west of Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track and the wind direction will be northerly but veer easterly towards the end of the week as pressure builds over Scandinavia with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.
January week 3 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over north western Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track giving the possibility of Channel Lows with the main wind direction being easterly however winds may veer northerly at times with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.
January week 4 - There will be a mean ridge in the Pacific however most of the energy will be going into the northern arm of the Jet Stream although the Pacific Jet Stream will be berificated, as the Jet Stream enters the United States Of America the Jet Stream will remain diffluent due to the the Pacific Jet Stream berificating in the mid Pacific again resulting in the mean ridge over north western Canada with low pressure taking a southerly track and a very posotive PNA, due to the very posotive PNA, the Jet Stream will leave the United States Of America on a southerly track but more importantly, the Jet Stream will be diffluent and warm air advection will take place over Greenland which will allow the Greenland High to build and form a blocking high which will mean that the Jet Stream stays on a southerly track giving the possibility of Channel Lows with the main wind direction being easterly however winds may veer northerly at times with temperatures below average, there will be a mean trough in the Altantic.
CET - 0.5C - 3.7C below average
Sunshine - above average
Rainfall - below average
I will update the rest of my forecast on sunday, consider this a taster.
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My December outlook is based upon sea surface temperature anomolies during November using a one month time-lag and model output, the sea surface temperature aspect assumes that Steve Murr is right about a small warm anomoly being a good thing.
December
I expect the first week of December to feature a easterly regime however low pressure will be fairly close to the south of the British isles so that there is a chance of a Channel Low developing at the end of the first week of December, I expect the second week of December to feature a more south easterly regime due to the block sinking south as low pressure runs to the west on a south easterly path, which could provide some snow for the Mildlands, I expect the second week of December to feature rougthly the same synoptics however as the Greenland High strengthens a little more, the winds may veer more to the east rather than the south east as the block moves north slightly with the possibility of the lows from the north west taking a more southerly track and becoming Channel Lows wit the possibility of a white christmas for the south, I expect the last week of December to feature a more easterly regime with Channel Lows as the Greenland High dictaes the weather.
CET - below average - 2.1C - 3C below average (official severe winter month)
Rainfall - below average
My January and February forecasts are based upon teleconnection patterns over the past three months, the teleconnection patterns which i use are:
1) NAO
2) PNA
3) AO
Here is the raw teleconnection data of my forecast:
January week 1 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
January week 2 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
January week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
January week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
February week 1 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
February week 2 - POSOTIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - NEGATIVE PNA
February week 3 - NEGATIVE NAO - POSOTIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
February week 4 - NEGATIVE NAO - NEGATIVE AO - POSOTIVE PNA
For a easterly or sustained northerly, the ideal setup is a negative NAO and AO and a posotive PNA, this will keep the Jet Stream to the south of the British Isles.
Here are my January and February forecasts:
January week 1 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland and the Jet Stream will move north as the Azores High ridges into Europe causing a posotive NAO, temperatures will be around 0.5C above average for the first week and rainfall will be above average.
January week 2 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during the second week.
January week 3 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA however due to a negative AO, pressure will build to the east of Greenland and the Jet Stream will move south and due to the absence of the Azores High, the Jet Stream will move over the British isles with a negative NAO, there is the possibility of frontal snow for the north of England during this period, temperatures will be around average and rainfall will be above average.
January week 4 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during the last week.
Temperature - 4.7C - 0.5C above average
Rainfall - average
February week 1 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO however due to mid Atlantic Azores High being supported by a Azores Low, the NAO will be negative and the Jet Stream will be meridonal with north westerlies occuring once low pressure has passed, temperatures will be 0.5C below average and rainfall will be average for the first week.
February week 2 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a northerly track due to a posotive PNA and will stay on a northerly track due to a posotive AO which will cause the Azores High to settle over Europe around the lattitude of France, temperatures will be 1C above average and rainfall will be below average during this period.
February week 3 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland however due to a posotive AO, the pressure build will be confined to Greenland however the Azores High will ridge towards the Greenland High causing a negative NAO and introducing a toppler, temperatures and rainfall will be around average during this period.
February week 4 - the Jet stream will come out of the United States of America on a southerly track due to a posotive PNA with a subsiquent pressure build over Greenland and due to the fact that there is a negative AO the Greenland High will link a Scandinavian ridge allowing a easterly to take hold with a southerly tracking Jet Stream and negative NAO, temperatures will be 1C below average during this period, rainfall will be below average.
Temperature - 3.7C - 0.5C below average
Rainfall - below average
Winter Summary
December CET - 2.1C
January CET - 4.7
February CET - 3.7
Winter CET - 3.5C - 1C below average
Please allow 0.5C margin of error for all CET estimates.
December Rainfall - below average
January rainfall - average
February rainfall - below average
Winter rainfall - below average
I think that my forecast may be correct because the winters of 1933 and 1996 were preceeded by very active hurricane seasons, and both had a below average December and Feburary and a January which was around average, although i did not factor in the hurricane season directly, i can assume that the hurricane season affected sea surface temperature anomolies which in turn affected teleconnection patterns.
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According to xcweather, the current temperature in my location is 6C, which is a 2C drop in one hour, based on this, i expect a minima of -7C.
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I was thinking that snow may fall at night on the main front, and that a wave could develop on one of the fronts.
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Could somebody post information relating to years ending in 6.
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The Enforcer, the average maxima in November is 12C, and the average minima 2C, therfore if we assume that a northerly airflow will be modified to 2C below the average, even the south may be cold enougth for snow at night due to those sea surface temperatureas as the average maximas and minimas which i have posted are for London.
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I believe that we will see how much of an effect these topplers have during the coming week and next week.
Some Quirky Statistical Fun
in Historic Weather
Posted
Here is a 110 year cycle concerning June
1676 has the second warmest June on record
1786 has joint 18th warmest June on record
1896 has joint 15th warmest June on record
2006??????
Incidently, my initial prediction is for the 10th warmest June on record.