summer blizzard
-
Posts
18,635 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
9
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by summer blizzard
-
-
Here is my forecast of track and strength.
I expect Tropical Depression 24 to become Hurricane Wilma on tuesday, and turn later than the national hurricane center is predicting, this is the worst case senario as it will go through the Yucatan Straights, not loosing strength over land, i expect a weak category 5 to make landfall in Florida in one week on monday, at its peak, i expect a central pressure of 885mb and sustained windspeeds of 192mph.
This is a monster, coincidently, the women this season seem to be real b*****s.
Is the other system being commented on classed as a Tropical Wave and if so, once it gains strength, the interactions of the two tropical systems could have the result of sending Wilma on a more southerly track, curving south eastwards before hitting southern Florida and also sending the Tropical Wave (possibly Alpha) on a track similar to Katrina however with landfall further west, possibly in eastern Texas, however i am foccusing on the soon to be Wilma for the moment.
Here is the track which i think they could take if they were to interact with each other.
(note, due to increased shear when the systems are interacting, both systems would not be as strong as they could be)
-
Looking at the satelite pictures, a Tropical Depression has clearly formed, i am going to support the UKMO track on this one which shows the system moving slowly westward but curving northward to go through the Yukatan Straight qwith a probale hit to the west New Orleans as a category 5 hurricane due to near perfect conditions, i expect a category 1 hurricane by monday night with landfall during thursday morning.
Here is the UKMO model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation
-
That posotive anomoly will most likely grow over the next week however i expect that region to be dominated by northerlies until the end of the month afterward, with sea ice begining to form around Iceland.
-
Although there is less sea ice than last year near Siberia, it is good to know that the sea ice is now forming there.
-
I think that the anomolies are the deviation away from the monthly average, i doubt they have a daily average.
-
The current northern hemisphere sea surface temperature anomolies are very encouraging, although i would like to see the Chucki Sea cool down soon.
The anomolies in the Pacific Ocean are also encouraging, the cold anomoly to the south west of the British Isles will favour a Omega block and therefore a posotive PNO in conjunction with the posotive anomoly near the north eastern United States however i would like to see the posotive anomoly in the middle of the Pacific Ocean move west as in its current location, it will not have much effect on the location of the Jet Stream as it will bericate before reaching the United States, due to the fact that the warm anomoly to the north east of the United States is more intense than the cold anomoly to the south west of the United States, i expect the Omega block to be displaced further west than normal resulting in a colder than average United States with a posotive PNO due to central and eastern United States being colder than average rather than the usual west-east split or displaced eastwards block resulting i warmer than average coinditions for the United States.
As for the anomolies in the Atlantic, the intense cold pool to the east of Greenland will promote nothern blocking, along with the posotive anomoly in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, which will promote a southerly tracking Jet Stream and the cold anomolies in the southern Atlantic Ocean, these are all encouraging signs.
Several things which could be improved are:
1) the negative anomolies in the southern Atlantic Ocean could be more widespread and intense
2) the posotive anomolies in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean should not be more intense than the cold anomolies either side of it
3) if a cold anomoly develops in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, that is okay as long as the warm anomoly is beow the cold anomoly
-
We do not want a cold anomoly in the mid Atlantic as that would favour a Atlantic High, although we do want cold anomolies to soround Greenland and the Bermuda region, we want cold anomolies along the latitude of France as that would favour a southerly tracking Jet Stream, i personally do not care what happens in the English Channel or North Sea.
-
The latest sea surface temperature charts increase my hope for a below average winter, the GIN area negative anomoly is increasing, and the posotive anomoly in the mid Atlantic Ocean is weakening, all we need now is for the negative anomoly near Bermuda to ncrease in size and strength and keep these kind of anomolies present throughout November, December and January as there is a one month time lag before synoptic effects take place in my opinion.
-
In my opinion, the current sea surface temperature anomolies are a lot more faviourable than last year, we have a below average GIN sea however i would like there to be a widespread 1C below average anomoly at least, hopefully that will occur, another faviourable anomoly is the warm anomolies in the mid Atlantic, which should bring the Jet Stream further south and a negative anomoly near Bermuda, this should keep the Bermuda-Azores High there, these anomolies should ensure a negative NAO however due to the position of the anomolies, there is a danger of a winter similar to 1998, if there is a cold winter, i would not expect large amounts of rainfall/snowfall, it would most likely be a 1963 type winter rather than a 1947 type winter.
-
One thing that may have been missed with Hurricane Rita is the flooding in Florida, the outer rainbands have not yet left Florida, must be a lot of flooding.
-
Kold Weather, if pressure only rises between 20mb and 30mb, during a eyewall replacement cycle then Hurricane Rita should only have a pressure as high as 930mb at the most since it peaked at 897mb.
-
I pesonally believe that when Hurricane Rita finishes it's eyewall replacement cycle, if it has not already, then it will bomb again, if it does pass over cooler waters, then as long as they are above 28C, they will only slow it's development rather than weaken it as most other variables such as wind sheer remain faviourable for further development.
Mondy, has Hurricane Rita slowed significantly as if it has then it will be strugling to combat the high pressure, if it has not, then it is most likely going through a eyewall replacement cycle.
It seems as though Hurricane Rita is now a category 4 huuricane with sustained windspeeds of only 150mph however the central pressure of 915mb is low enougth to warant a category 5 hurricane, which takes precidence, windspeed or pressure??????????
-
I agree, Kold Weather, if the storm is stronger then it will weaken the ridge more, it is already 25mph above expectations and i think your landfall prediction may be on the mark, since it is hitting further north than predicted, Hurricane Rita will make landfall earlier than predicted, i think that Hurricane Rita is annular and may be able to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane without any serious weakening, i believe a peak at 893mb with sustained windspeeds of 193mph will happen.
-
Southern Florida looks to be getting a real soacking from Hurricane Rita, it must of been raining there for at least 24 hours, and still is, flooding is a real possibility.
-
I think that Hurricane Katrina only had one eyewall replacement cycle, the night before landfall, if Hurricane Rita underwant a eyewall replacement cycle now, that would be a worst case senario as Hurricane Rita would have had time before landfall to restrengthen.
-
If Hurricane Rita can drop 1mb, she will officially be a CATEGORY 5 hurricane, looks as if my prediction has come off.
-
Since Hurricane Rita had a central pressure of 923mb in the last recon, it is most likely already a category 5 hurricane with a central pressure less than 920mb.
-
Although missing land is the best course in terms of damage, it has the negative impact of been the best course for strengthening.
Although the NHC expect Hurricane Rita to weaken to category 3 before landfall, i do not feel this will happen, and expect Hurricane Rita to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane on friday night.
-
According to that, a category 4 hurricane is expected within the next 36 hours, looks as though my prediction may come off.
-
I expect a category 5 within 48 hours however i do think it will weaken as it undergoes a eyewall replacement cycle before strengthening again before landfall, the warmest sea surface temperatures are all in the western Gulf Of Mexico, which is why i can not see it weakening much before landfall.
-
Here is the latest discussion on Hurricane Rita.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 201737
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT
RITA HAS REACHED 100 MPH WINDS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REFLECT
A CHANGE IN BOTH INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE IS NO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
-
Here is the latest forecast advisory on Hurricane Rita.
000
WTNT23 KNHC 201736
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1800Z TUE SEP 20 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 80.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 81.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
938mb would mean that Hurricane Rita is expected to become a strong category 3 hurricane in 72 hours.
-
Here is the latest public advisory on Hurricane Rita.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 201736
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
-
Kold Weather, although you are probably right, i thought that Hurricane Katrina was the second strongest on record in the Gulf Of Mexico, with a central pressure of 902mb, Hurricane Camile only had a central pressure of 907mb, are you getting mixed up with the Labour Day hurricane which had a central pressure of 892mb, with a central pressure of 907mb, i do not think sustained winds of 190mph are possible, maybe with the Labour Day hurricane though.
Waiting For Wilma!
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Mondy, i know the estimates seem high, however, in my opinion conditions are near perfect, i may change this forecast later, i also predicted that Rita would be category 5 when most people were predicting category 3, and i managed to predict the exact pressure of 897mb.