summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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In my opinion, the current anomnolies most closely match January 2002.
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Here is the latest discussion.
since the last recon fix shortly before 12z...which measured a 997
mb central pressure...very deep convection has wrapped around the
low level center...so Rita is developing substantial inner core
convection for the first time. Dvorak intensity estimates at 12z
were unanimously t3.5/55 kt...which is the advisory intensity.
Recon is scheduled to be back into the system early this afternoon.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 10
knots...to the south of the eastern extension of a strong mid-level
ridge centered over Texas. Dynamical models are in very tight
agreement through 36 hours on basically this continued
heading...with perhaps a slight increase in forward speed as the
ridge to the north strengthens and the tropical cyclone deepens.
Most of the models and their consensus have shifted northward...and
the official forecast is adjusted likewise...bringing the track
closer to the Florida Keys than the previous advisory.
Additionally...most of the models have shifted farther north late
in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...due to a
weakening ridge as a trough approaches from the western United
States in several days. The official forecast is adjusted to the
north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model
consensus.
Recon data and surface observations indicate the size of the storm
is increasing...especially to the north of the center. The
forecast wind radii are expanded based on these data...wind radii
Cliper guidance...and global models depicting an expanding system.
It is important to emphasize that Rita could affect a large area
and one should not focus on the exact track.
Atmospheric conditions are continuing to become more conducive for
strengthening...and all forecast guidance suggests Rita should
intensify some more...before and after it reaches the Gulf of
Mexico. The new official intensity forecast is adjusted upward and
is a blend between the SHIPS and GFDL guidance through day 3...and
shows Rita reaching category two status before reaching the Gulf of
Mexico. There is a slight possibility it could strengthen faster
than forecast. All indications are that Rita will become a major
hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico... where a large upper level
anticyclone is forecast by the models to dominate and provide a
weak shear environment.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/1500z 23.0n 75.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 20/0000z 23.4n 76.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 20/1200z 24.0n 79.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 21/0000z 24.4n 81.9w 90 kt
48hr VT 21/1200z 24.7n 84.5w 95 kt
72hr VT 22/1200z 25.5n 88.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 23/1200z 26.5n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 95.0w 100 kt
$$
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As you can see, much of the area to the north of the British Isles is average to below average.
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This year is shaping up a lot better than last year, the posotive anomoly near the east of the USA is a good thing, as this will cause a postive PNO, this year, there is no cold anomoly in the mid Atlantic and the warm anomly present this year is in a fairly southerly position, this will encourage a southerly tracking Jet Stream, by far the most important thing this year, is the negative Anomoly in the GIN area, as this will favour northern blocking.
Remember two things for the winter when looking at sea surfact temperature charts:
1) High pressure will reside near the negative anomolies
2) Low pressure will reside in the posotive anomolies
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I think that all the winter regulars are beggining to return now, we had over 30 members on the Hurricane Kartina thread yeasterday.
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So we should expect it to bomb again???????????????????
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If it's spinning, will that aid in strengthening??????????????????
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If Hurricane Katrina is undergoing a eyewall replacement cycle, then it will probably bomb again afterward, this morning it dropped 20mb in 3 hours.
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At 908mb, Hurricane Katrina is the second strongest hurricane on record.
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With about a day until landfall, Hurricane Katrina could become the strongest hurricane on record.
What do people think?????????????????????????
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The latest update shows that Hurricane Katrina is now category five with a central pressure of 915mb and sustained windspeeds of 166mph.
I hope everybody has been evacuated from New Orleans.
Is it possible to get a category 6 hurricane and what is the record strength of a hurricane as Hurricane Katrina may beat this?????????
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HURRICANE KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.
If pressure is now 915mb as KW has stated, then Hurricane Katrina is now a category 5 hurricane, with windspeeds of 150mph at nearly 05:00, this would not suprise me.
What is the record stength of a hurricane, as i feel that Hurricane Katrina could break that record as it is still nowhere near making landfall??????????
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Yes, this is a devastating storm which will probibly make Hurricane Ivan look like a baby, i expect Hurricane Katrina to make landfall in western Texas as a moderate category five hurricane, it is interesting that although we have only had four hurricanes this season, three have them will of been major hurricanes, with two of them possibly category fives.
What is the record for the amount of category five hurricanes forming in a single season as i think this record could be broken?????????????????????????????
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Hurricane Katrina is now a category 2 hurricane with a central pressure of 971mb and mean wind speeds of 100mph.
GFS indicate that Hurricane Katrina will be a category 4 huuricane when landfall is made in Alabama in three days.
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Hurricane Katrina now has a central pressure of 981mb and could become a category 2 hurricane within a few haours, i expect Hurricane Katrina to make landfall in western Texas as a category 5 hurricane.
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As the other sea ice thread was getting too long, i have decided to open this thread to carry on the discusion about sea surface temperatures and sea ice trends.
Here is the situation at the moment, as of a few days ago the Polar sea ice has stopped melting and is now advancing again, this is a full two weeks earlier than last year, this is good news for the coming winter.
At the moment there is a huge posotive sea surface temperature anomoly in the middle of the Atantic, if this were winter, it would probably favour a Jet Stream over the British Isles however if it disipates or moves south in time for the winter, the it will most likely favour a Jet Stream to the south of the British Isles, this is what we want for the coming winter.
Carry on your discussion here.
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If the ridge strengthened and forced Hurricane Katrina south west, then i suspect that it will make landfall again in a similar place to Hurrican Emily, if it moves slowly, then we may even see a category five hurricane as Hurricane Emily was due to the extremely warm water there.
I expect to see eighteen named storms with six of them becoming hurricanes by the end of September, so far we have had eleven named storms and four hurricanes.
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Here are the CET's of the winters during the first fifty years of the 20th centuary.
1900 - 3.1C - Cold
1901 - 4.3C - Average
1902 - 3.2C - Cold
1903 - 5.3C - Mild
1904 - 3.6C - Cold
1905 - 4.2C - Average
1906 - 4.4C - Average
1907 - 3.1C - Cold
1908 - 4.1C - Average
1909 - 3.4C - Cold
1910 - 4.2C - Average
1911 - 5C - Mild
1912 - 5.1C - Mild
1913 - 5.3C - Mild
1914 - 5.2C - Mild
1915 - 4.3C - Average
1916 - 5.5C - Mild
1917 - 1.5C - Severe
1918 - 4.2C - Average
1919 - 3.9C - Cold
1920 - 5.6C - Mild
1921 - 5.4C - Mild
1922 - 4.9C - Average
1923 - 5.7C - Mild
1924 - 3.9C - Cold
1925 - 5.8C - Mild
1926 - 4.5C - Average
1927 - 4.2C - Average
1928 - 4.3C - Average
1929 - 1.7C - Severe
1930 - 4.6C - Average
1931 - 3.8C - Cold
1932 - 4.8C - Average
1933 - 4.1C - Average
1934 - 3.2C - Cold
1935 - 6.1C - Hot
1936 - 3C - Cold
1937 - 5.4C - Mild
1938 - 4.6C - Average
1939 - 4.7C - Average
1940 - 1.5C - Severe
1941 - 2.6C - Severe
1942 - 2.2C - Severe
1943 - 5.9C - Mild
1944 - 4.3C - Average
1945 - 3.7C - Cold
1946 - 4.5C - Average
1947 - 1.1C - Severe
1948 - 5.4C - Mild
1949 - 5.6C - Mild
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I would of liked to see a front chart of Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole.
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Because i live near the Pennines, i get snow from almost any direction, although a easterly to north easterly wind is probably the best wind direction for me, the best thing for snow for me is a event like the one at the end of Feburary to occur, when there is a quasi-stationary frontal system, as it usually stays directly over me, it snowed for twelve hours at the end of Feburary, however due to the mild air embedded in the low pressure system, i only got four inches of snow.
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I remember that on 31st December 2003, a warm front approached from the west and collided with cold air producing blizzards in the north east of England, this event gave me around four inches in around six hours, the snowflakes were massive.
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Is the high pressure system on the 8th December 1990 a northward ddisplaced Azores High or a southward displaced Artic High, i susspect that it is a southward displaced Artic High however i cannot be sure.
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Has any Tropical System done what Ivan did, but become a Hurricane again instead of a Tropical Storm.
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19:09
The fastest wind speeds in the British Isles are in eastern England and northern Scotland where category 4 wind speeds are being recorded, the highest wind speed is 33mph in Donna Cook.
The highest temperatures in the British Isles are in southern England where a temperature of 22C has been recorded in Solent. The lowest temperature in the British Isles are in northern Scotland where a temperature of only 13C has been recorded in Aberdeen.
The highest pressure in the British Isles is 1024mb in the Outer Hebridees. The lowest pressure in the British Isles is 1018mb in East Anglia.
Hurricane Rita.
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by summer blizzard
I am going to say that with sea surface temperatures of around 30C under her most of the way to Texas, i see no reason why Hurricane Rita will not reach category 5, maybe even stronger than Hurricane Katrian which at one point was the second strongest Hurricane on record in the Gulf Of Mexico and the sixth in the whole world with a central pressure of 902mb with sustained winds of 175mph at one point, as Hurricane Rita is now bombing, i expect a category 3 by tommorow morning and a category five hurricane by thursday morning, making landfall as a strong category 4 of weak category 5 in Huoston.
Well, Hurricane Rita is already stronger than forecast and as a result the next forecast will probably be category 4, this also happened with Hurricane Katrina which was only forecast to become a weak category 4, by the time they had forecast a strong category 4 in three days, Hurricane Katrina was already a strong category 5.