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Bullseye

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    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.

    Not sure they already backing down for February when it states likely increased chance of North or Easterly winds and also greater chance of colder conditions compared to mild (which would normally be more likely for UK, more so these days). 

    Seasonal models surely can't be wrong at one month lead time, as many of them including GLOSEA and ECM seasonal have blocking for month of Feb (and March). If this was was 3-months I would say low chance but at 1-month out has to be some sort of confidence for colder weather. 

    • Like 1

    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    29 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

    At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than  2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10). 
     

    There is the chance the cold spell could be extended as there is uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure over Greenland, the possibility of a wedge of high pressure persisting to our north as well as cold weather being difficult to shift. 

    The duration of cold temperatures is only one factor in determining the magnitude of a cold spell. The depth of cold is another. According to the GFS 06z we could be looking at 4-5 days with widespread maxima of 0C or lower which is pretty notable. In the past 50 years at Glasgow airport there have only been two days with maxima -2C or lower in the second half of winter (there’s a chance we could see such a temperature during this spell). There’s also the chance of notable minima - especially in the highlands and parts of the southern uplands - as the charts posted on this thread showed last night. I think we lows of -15 to -20C are quite likely in the highlands (-20C a possibility) and in central Scotland we could see -7 to -12C. 
     

    With regards to snow it’s too early to tell but I’d say most places north of Dundee should be in the firing line of most showers. In such set ups, for most inland places we are relying on features popping up out of nowhere to deliver a surprise. It’s possible this cold spell could be predominately dry like Dec 2022 but even the spell provided a decent fall here towards the end. Also there’s always the chance of a battleground snowfall during the breakdown. Looking at the models there is a feature which could bring snow (should the warm sector play ball) to western and central areas although I suspect it may end up tracking further south  to impact SW Scotland and NW England. 

    So, while this cold spell may not (yet) be a repeat of 2010 as some charts promised over a week ago this still looks like a reasonable cold spell and at the moment the signs are positive for the rest of winter. This winter has already produced a couple of decent falls so I’d take one big fall of 10cm+ or a smaller fall which leaves a few cm lasting for a few days. Despite the complaints from some in the model thread about the lack of snow (primarily for southern England) Scotland is in a decent position to experience snow and hopefully we’ll enjoy widespread snow cover. 
     

    The charts at the moment remind me a little of late Dec 2000 which lasted for little more than a week. At Glasgow airport there were 5 consecutive ice days, a low of -11C and one fall of snow dumped around 20cm in the area. It’s an example of how cold spells don’t need to be prolonged to pack a punch. And you don’t need stonking high latitude blocking to produce impactful winter weather. Looking through the archives of some of the notable periods of winter weather it’s striking how quite a lot of the charts are not that impressive at face value (at least by the standards set by some in the model thread). 
    image.thumb.png.873847cf43bd6fef78ced65cada50cd3.png

    Many thanks for this, found that very interesting. 

    Considering the recent winters in UK especially with warming world, I think this shows Glasgow actually has done fairly well - Jan/Feb 2015 was eye opener for me and also shows that 2020/21 winter really was something! 

    Fingers firmly crossed for some promising wintery scenes next week for us lot 🤞.

    Some of the runs this morning had Scotland under 850hpa temps of around -11/-12, could be really low overnight temperatures especially further north. This is also why I don't agree with some on MOD thread saying this is fairly normal "cold" spell. 

    • Like 8
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    For sure, but we’re talking about a major injection of uncertainty in the 12z models, whatever knowledge they may have about it, it isn’t in their update. 

    What was interesting though is today was the first long range update from MO that now has different wording to previous few days (which was more or less the same wording). For them to change long range wording must be due to them having confidence or better idea of that timeframe. 

    Question I would ask, IF EC and GFS are correct regarding change going from 12z runs then what has caused the sudden change because it certainly can't be background signals or any new data with regards to strat warming/large temp increase. Would also mean the rather consistent EC 46 of past week would have missed this too but again this is only IF EC/GFS continue to trend away from sufficient blocking. 

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye
    Got me days and week mixed up!

    Eyes on that cluster of near 0 zonal winds for around two weeks time especially when compared to only 48 hours ago. 

    Looks to also be some momentum on further blocking into final week of month leading into February - would further support seasonal models thinking last few months. 

     

    20240102204110-2557b22031704eec457dca2628efc5e174c515d7.png

    20240102204126-26c8cb0b9172afdff2fe82fe862574ae217e6886.png

    20240102204521-1fe946c2be949c1d9f24a8a1dca53a7c1b276b1b.png

    • Like 6

    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    Life is good in the big house tonight  although some disagreements on Kent snow totals and mention of Feb 2021 - cracking month for snow up here along with Jan 2021 but won't mention that to them 😂

    Should see us lot up here get a well needed break from wind and rain, some potentially low max temps I would imagine although likely dry and frosty - maybe foggy too. Don't mind that me.  

    Obviously this is based on ECM run but backed up by MO daily updates. 

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    I appreciate it isn't the top model but all signs positive help .................don't they 

     

    The JMA seasonal round up for Jan Feb and March is truly stunning. 

    January Cold and blocked, HP over us and slightly NW of the UK

    Feb looks absolutely primed for a snowy and cold month blocking pushed further North and West towards Greenland.

    March signal is weaker and mixed.

    Hello, would you be able to link latest JMA for JFM? Many thanks 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye
    Additional information

    8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    Which begs the question, what was that tweet I linked to earlier going on about? 🤣

    I'm sure the tweet you had linked from Raleigh Wx is latest EPS ensembles covering 15 days from 12z (tonight) while tweet posted by Simon (EC 46) is based on 0z data from this morning - well I think it is anyway, don't worry confusion is also happening on world of Twitter too 😂

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    23 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes that is correct, NAM and NAO are responsible for downwelling of the SSW. The NAM is positive right now with a positive NAO. This is why I am concerned. The presence of El Nino and MJO in negative NAO phases may help downwelling somewhat however.

    That is based on just now, on the post/extract from Lorenzo it mentions the following:

    The same is true for the NAO: if a negative NAO is present at the time of the SSW.

    The SSW, at the moment, isn't expected to happen until around 6th-9th January based on EPS, GFS and GEM (if it does occur) so we unable to say at the time of SSW what the NAO and/or NAM phase will be unless of course we believe the GFS at 372hrs! 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bullseye

    18 minutes ago, Gowon said:

    True, but that was at the end of the minimum? 

    And what about the quiet period from 2016 -2021?

    Maybe it does, and maybe I need to lower my expectations for future solar mins.👍

    Not to keep this off topic but this is something I came across back in Spring - ascending solar phase increases the chance of -NAO compared with any other phase including solar minimum. E-QBO combined with ascending solar gives greater chance of -NAO/AO although I'd imagine more factors at play to get this outcome. 

    color nao.png

    Solar_NAO.png

    • Like 1
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    • Insightful 2
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