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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    It's all to play for.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Very close to that 100F. With higher 850s continuing to progress northwards, I'd expect at least 2 or even 3 hours of heating left to go.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    UKV 9z for late this afternoon/evening is marginally warmer than UKV 6z, which is good for record-breaking temps as I'd imagine new data/observations have been fed into the 9z run. So 38C is increasingly likely and a little more confident we may break our record than I was earlier.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    ICON 12z has 37C Monday & 39C Tuesday, maybe a degree hotter locally?
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    So far both ICON 12z & UKV 12z delay the heat a touch as the low is slightly further SW. UKV 12z has 39C for Monday. Obviously, a delay in the heat will lead to a marginally hotter Tuesday so have to wait for UKV 15z for that.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    If we're looking at the 'absolute' maximum at the moment, Heathrow currently stands at 28.4C. GFS had an max of 29C today and ECM 27C. So GFS appears to be closer is from my POV so going forward a middle ground is probably most sensible, but anyhow the 12z runs beginning to roll out now. I can't imagine any real significant changes, other than a little shift east/west due to your typical run-to-run variation.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    ICON 6z going for localised 38C on Monday, and 39C on Tuesday which is a touch up on its 0z run as the clearance of heat is delayed an hour or two.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    NetWx MR 12z has a 39C at 09UTC/10am for far N Coast of East Anglia
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    NetWx MR 12z also gets rid of the heat a touch faster than its 0z run too. However, it still achieves 40C on Monday and 41C on Tuesday.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    In the response to the clearing of heat quickly on Tuesday, it's also good to remember that it's one thing the model showing it, but it's another thing actually happening too! Since we're talking about fine margins here, all it takes is for the cold front to be a few hours slower in reality vs modelled for a much wider spread of temps close to 40C. Assuming we stay at this knife edge until Tuesday then anything can still happen.
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Obviously, Tuesday's temperatures are highly dependent on how quickly the heat clears east through the day. It does make for uncomfortable viewing if you are looking for record breaking temperatures, but just having a look at the GFS 0z ensembles, a central region like Oxford still has an ensemble mean of 20C at 850hPa at 1500 on Tuesday, so majority of members atm keep the heat across eastern half of England through ALL of Tuesday.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm not convinced we'll see a level 3 as that seems to only be issued a few times per year for the entirety of Europe, but I wouldn't rule out a level 2 as I've seen one for the UK before!
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    This is the most mental set of MOGREPS 12z I've ever seen, for London too averaging 22C at 850hPa when you might expect somewhere across CS England coast to be even higher.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Could be some absolutely colossal thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and then overnight into Wednesday. NetWx MR just shows the volatile atmosphere over the UK, realistically 1,500-2,000J/Kg CAPE locally along with strong wind shear (both low & upper levels) and a heightened tropopause so cloud tops exceeding well above 40,000ft. Recipe for some nasty storms and supportive of supercells, but obviously lots of uncertainty regarding magnitude of CAPE and where storms are most likely etc.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Not exactly mate, Bristol reaches 34C at midday before temperatures falling away through the afternoon as the heat clears away.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    UKMO 12z sees 37C CS England on Monday and 39C towards Cambridge on Tuesday. That's raw model output, locally maybe a degree higher.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    NetWx MR 12z, breaking our all time record and maybe 40C on both Monday and Tuesday.
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Everything you need can be found here! UK climate extremes WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK UK climate extremes July's highest minimum is 23.3C, highest ever is 23.9C. I think its very likely this will be beaten based on current model output. UKV doesn't have temps dropping lower than 25-26C Monday night in places.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    A massive jump on the GFS ensemble mean from 18z to 00z for most areas. Oxford for example,18z 850hPa mean peaking at 20.5C, 00z mean peaking at 22.5C! Some ensemble members even exceed 25C at 850hPa which is mind-boggling.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    NetWx MR 12z has widespread 36-37C Monday and fairly widespread 37-38C on Tuesday, so likely a 39C or maybe even close to 40C in there.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    With regards to your 2nd point, I think @mb018538 was making reference to just the UKV model, which technically we should place more emphasis on as its the higher resolution model. That saying if we hit 30C towards the Bristol area on Sunday, that's still fairly rare and likely the first of 3 days which may exceed 30C (obvs Mon & Tuesday somewhat higher).
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Models were all relatively steady overnight with an improved GFS 0z ensemble mean too. The ensemble mean for Plymouth actually reaches 20.2C at 850hPa which is extraordinary.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Just for the sake of it but GEM 0z is exceptional for both Monday and Tuesday with the 20C isotherm over SW UK by Sunday evening.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Quite a striking 6z MOGREPS, how almost all of the ensemble members get above 20C at some point.
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