Ben Sainsbury

Good to here it's paying off

Cannot see anything here from S Oxfordshire, albeit not a great view.

Eeesh I'm working right now, but I'm gonna have to venture outside if they get any closer!

I wouldn't go that far yet, I don't think the wind shear profile would be supportive, however a few multicells are likely now. Some impressive cores developing.

Well this is exciting, should be a good lightning show for areas N/NE for the meantime! Bournemouth webcam anyone?

Cell appears to have electrified SE of Reading too.

Rash of cells developing S of Poole/Bournemouth, let's hope a few of these electrify. Would make sense given being in a slightly higher region of instability.

There's an isolated cell to the NW of IOW which may be the culprit!

I think Portsmouth, maybe slightly east is a good shout in my opinion. As instability transfers NE there may be several clusters of thunderstorms that head your way tonight. That saying there are likely to be periods of no activity at times.

Ooh interesting, a sferic SSE of Salisbury.

They will weaken as they move N/NE into a region of lower instability, but the region of higher instability should gradually move in the same direction later tonight.

Even ARPEGE still much better than last night. Here's GFS ML CAPE too, unfortunately no MUCAPE charts.

Bit jealous, edging ever closer to the coast. I can't imagine how active tomorrow night may be given how tonight has turned out.

Welcome my friend! We're all friendly, particularly in this chat... unless you don't see a storm that is

Plymouth popping off! Not going to lie a little more lightning than I expected tonight and it's only getting on for half 1. Btw ppn isn't decreasing on landfall, it's just getting sheared ahead of the cells.

Nicely done, good to see someone enjoying the action first hand!

I'm becoming increasingly more impressed with the model output for tomorrow night too. Wednesday if we can see good model agreement/consistency then it could be a very big day.

I'm sure there will be a little more lightning than the detectors are picking up too, as not all IC is detected. Might be a decent show if you're based Plymouth/Torquay. The strong vertical wind shear is definitely playing an important role and to some degree makes up for the lack of instability. These cells have been going for over an hour now, typical lifetime for popcorn storms.

Wow this is a great capture! Cloud tops don't seem too high as expected.

We have a few sferics in the middle of the channel, S of Plymouth. This is where the upper trough is beginning to interact with the Theta-W plume.

I understand where you're coming from, but I just want to clear this up for others. The storms are initiated at an elevated level in the atmosphere, so these aren't exactly being fueled by warmer air on land, with @Lance M making a good point. They are however being fueled by the warm airmass being advected north at 850hPa. Just a minor difference, but is something people can get wrong sometimes. There is some question how far north this warm airmass will reach etc and whether storms can maintain once moving out of this warmer airmass.

Yeah Dan is the best in the business. Exceptional knowledge of the physics behind convection and just great at forecasting. Some of the verification on his forecasts are remarkable.

AROME not showing a huge amount of instability however, that saying it does also seem on its own regarding tomorrow night developments.

The NMM 12z for Sunday night , tomorrow night looks a touch better too.

Agree with the above, Sunday night is looking much better and better model agreement. GFS & NMM so far showing up to 1000J/Kg of CAPE overnight, however DLS looking somewhat on the weak side probably 20-30kts max. Much greater risk of lightning however than tomorrow night. EDIT: Honestly haven't seen this much model discrepancy for imported storms in a good few years now.