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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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A few observations I've notice, one it appears the MCS is further north than what the hi-res models show. Fortunately steering flow current NNW and should move NW then WNW through the afternoon, with new convection continually developing on the east side of the system. What is different today compared to a typical Spanish plume is that the steering follow is more NNW/NW than NNE/NE and normally favouring more central areas than SE regions.
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Unfortunately not every Spanish Plume is a 'typical' Spanish Plume (like the one you have highlighted). The variation of the "Modified Spanish Plume" as I referred to before (with credits to Sue Gray & Lewis) looks a bit more like this: As quoted by Suzanne Gray & Lewis "Unlike the classical Spanish plume the upper-level trough has stretched and thinned equator-ward and is forward (northwest–southeast) tilted. This can lead to a cut-off upper-level feature which is typically centred to the northwest of the Bay of Biscay." Taken from their paper (Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK). However, we can agree to disagree of course, but yeah I do admit its not your classic spanish plume
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More talk about tomorrow night into Saturday, but should the line of showers/thunderstorms move through quick enough then there is a chance we could see some strong/marginally-severe SB thunderstorms on Saturday along the M4 corridor. It's really beginning to catch my eye as it seems to look better with every new run.