Ben Sainsbury

Haven't seen many people talk about the UKMO lately, but it is just as impressive as the GFS & ECM. UKMO also been relatively consistent the last few days too. Good positioning of the high to the east of the UK, allowing some good WAA from the SSE. UKMO T168 below:

Good spot this! As always minor differences can lead to significant changes in the model output, valuable having your input!

With respect to BrickFielder, I am still interested in tomorrows potential, however we need a number of things to come together for thundery activity to be maximised. If cloud tops can reach sufficient heights tomorrow, then cells will have the ability to tap into some relatively strong wind shear, this in-turn will lead to organisation of a few cells with some fairly sporadic lightning and some decent sized hail for a time. For this to happen we need sufficient surface heating tomorrow, to build up that instability and the greater the instability then the higher the cloud tops are likely to reach. The amount of surface heating tomorrow will be dependent on the speed that the occluded front clears ESE'wards across England. The quicker the clearance, the more surface heating. For the most part the majority of cells won't be able to reach sufficient heights to tap into the wind shear, but I would imagine a few cells, particularly where we see the greatest instability tomorrow (Cambs, Herts, Beds, Bucks), may become organised for a time.

Have also noticed this as of late! Definitely a signal for high pressure to move over Mainland Europe and low pressure to sit out to the west. Very exciting!

Wednesday definitely an interesting day in my eyes, a few 100 J/Kg of CAPE overlapped by some relatively strong shear, particularly at upper levels. If convection can reach sufficient heights to tap into this strong shear, then the atmosphere may be supportive a marginally-severe storm particularly where we have the best overlap of CAPE/Shear.

A fair bit more lightning over NW France than I expected at this stage.

Think this is the case of them having other commitments rather than the risk not being high enough.

Agree with @Mapantz Mine and @Met4Cast take on tomorrow night:

Seems to be that way every time doesn't it!

Current thinking is highest risk area, Weymouth/Bournemouth to approx just E of IOW, then northwards towards M4. Steering flow more Northerly compared to typical plume events, so remains to be seen whether the typical eastward corrections occur. Will be a good case study and learning experience to look back on.

Here at work in Wallingford, Oxfordshire our anemometer has just recorded a 74mph gust...

Photo of the fallen tree in Keynsham Bristol.

Cranking up here now in Oxfordshire too. Photo sent from my brother back home in Keynsham, Bristol of a large tree which has fell onto a footbridge...

Thought exactly the same when I saw that clip, disappointing.

Looking at a few of the obs, Bristol Channel gusting 55-60mph, just off Cornwall gusting 65mph and winds aren't even meant to pick up properly in these regions for another 2-3 hours. Concerning.

I personally agree, but the issue here is people's ignorance. People don't care about the matrix, they care about whether the warning is Yellow, Amber or Red. It's a flaw in the warning system to me and needs to be simplistic.

GFS is the last model I'd refer to right now. I wouldn't refer to any of the models to be honest as they're all going to be playing catch up. Need a good sleep now as have to be up early for work and we will see what emerges tomorrow morning. I will try and keep those updated here when possible. Take it easy all!

Good ol Burnham on Sea! Winds aren't expected to really pick up until the early hours.

The UKV 9z is actually worse for W Wales & SW England, eeek.

Whilst waiting for the ICON 6z to start off the 06 runs, the ICON 3z showed a considerably deeper system and a touch further north compared to its 0z run.

Regardless of my gut instinct re. the Met Office, I personally agree with both of you.

My gut instinct is they will wait until tonight, especially if this "red warning area" is going to be quite large. But as long as the key message is sent out before people go to bed, I don't think it matters.

ARPEGE 12z also a slight tone down on max wind gusts, though still widespread 75-80mph inland gusts forecast.

I would completely agree if Eunice was already a well-developed low, but Eunice is only really at the very start of its process in developing into a powerful low so there is greater uncertainty at this range compared to normal even despite the models being in good agreement.

Yeah crazy scenes! Pitch is almost covered