Ben Sainsbury

Think we're beginning to see the main system weaken and fragment a touch now, but that is as expected.

Just posted in the SW/CS regional thread, but I'm wondering if we'll see the western edge pep up a little over the next few hours, as the cold air overrides the warmer Irish Sea. Hopefully then advecting moisture SE in the form of a streamer maybe?

Definitely a few indications a couple of days back, but only one or two models were showing anything of note & obviously Storm Arwen grabbed everyones attention. Despite AROME 6z shifting the snow west, I'm worried it is currently further east than forecast. That saying the western edge may pep up a bit as moisture advects SE off the Irish Sea.

GFS going into cuckoo land with that low S of Greenland, might scupper our chances of a prolonged predominately E'ly flow on this run.

This GFS 12z run is almost a work of art. Beyond T234 would imagine the Scandi & Atlantic heights will link up later.

Pleased to hear you in the Midlands are generally doing well. Believe the low actually ended up a touch further west than forecast so we ended up with a little snow for a time here as evident on the cars, but is very sleety and slushy! More showers are coming in though, so fingers crossed for a change!

Waiting on that band of precipitation across the Midlands to head its way towards our region. A lot of the high res models were leaning away from this band being wintry for our region, however reports in the Midlands seem to contradict that so will have to wait and see. From what I can see the obs suggest most places with dewpoints at or just below freezing so fingers crossed for a few flakes!

At T144, imo the ECM & UKMO both look better than the GFS and maybe the ECM is the best of the bunch so far. Better ridging into Greenland and the shape of the high means we experience a more N to S airflow rather than a NE to SW flow, which as we see leads to the coldest air to our west at T144.

Long time since I've posted in here or this forum at all for that matter. After watching the models for a good few years now, I've seen this happen all too often especially when it comes to a low dropping south over the UK, it is a tricky evolution for the models to handle. Without doubt the upcoming setup doesn't look quite as promising now judging by the deterministic models however, the ensembles still look very good and I wonder whether we may end up with a middle ground between what we saw on the models 2-3 days ago and what we're seeing on the models this evening. Definitely wouldn't be out of the question to see the models correct back closer to what they were showing before.

Keen eye on cell approaching Worcester.

Still not entirely sure what my move is going to be today, probably will head to a good vantage point for this squall across CS England then possibly head a touch further north but still undecided. That break in the squall line has my eye on it.

If the moment is right then you never know

Haha! We'll I better get in position quickly then, bit like US style!

Potentially will be out chasing tomorrow if all conditions come together, a good post on UKWW explaining tomorrow's outlook!

Very loud thunder here, sounds different though and I can't put my finger on it.

Storms across East Sussex/Kent have the potential to turn marginally-severe for a time.

Big bust in my eyes tonight aye

Beginning to hear some big rumbles now.

Can see very occasional bright lightning to my SE, what a pleasant surprise.

Looking at the wrong forecasts then mate

Which has always been what's forecast?

You currently in Sherborne?

Hopefully once the rain clears you lot on the south coast will have a much better lightning show on your hands!

Storms taking longer to reach the South Coast because steering flow is turning increasing NW/WNW’ly.