Ben Sainsbury
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Now you've said it the whole front is basically pivoting lol I was looking at the radar wrong! -
Not surprised snow is settling extremely quickly, here in Reading, grass and concrete temperatures are at 1.4'c and soil temperatures are at -0.1'c so expect similar values for the rest of ya!
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Ngl the fronts precipitation looks more intense and covers a much larger area to what is suggested even on the latest ICON 12z and ARPEGE 12z runs!
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Ben Sainsbury replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
From my eye, that heavy precipitation in the channel has Brighton's name written all over it! -
It is just a radar glitch, it cannot possibly weaken that quickly.
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Incredible! Right at sea level too.
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Since the area of precipitation is moving across the channel too, I'm hoping it will pep up a little further. Ngl West Somerset looks like its going to be absolutely clobbered!
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Agreed with @Man With Beard, even if under the darkest green colours on the Netweather radar scale; in an hour period that equates to 1cm/hr of snowfall. If under the yellow for an hour that equates to 4cm/hr of snowfall. This is because rainfall to snowfall ratio is 1:10.
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No worries you'll get to know things with time!
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The amber warning says it all mate.
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Works well with the Met Office's amber warning actually.
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Hirlam 6z has just come out, the M4 southwards look fantastic with 7-15cm with more further south. West country look at between 4-8cm and further SW between sort 2-5cm.
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Yes especially once the band has almost arrived so they are much more confident on who will get most impacted.
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-2.9'c here too, would be nice to hit -4'c and have the chance to get some freezing fog!
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Latest ICON 18z snow accumulation update...
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Lol, the Met Office predicts in Reading we'll experience 11 hours of snow, from Thursday 5pm till Friday 3am with 4/11 hours being heavy snow. Anyway's I'm hoping at least the front is a little further south tomorrow as we'll all experience further snow as the front wraps around.
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I'm confident that the front won't lose too much intensity as it enters Southern England, it will be continually drawing moisture from the channel and even as the front passes through (if it does) I will expect some showers in behind.
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AROME 12z looking great as well, 5-10cm widely, 20-25cm over Welsh hills.
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Warning matrix suggests an increase in confidence will result in an amber so...
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When confidence increases, I expect an amber to be in place for much of Wales and the moors of the SW.
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Hardly any snow from Midlands north, M4 southwards should have no worries because this accounts for further southerly corrections between now and the event.
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EURO4 6z looking good yet again for tomorrow, areas seeing 6 hours+ of snow in places. Looking at 5-10cm widely!
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EURO4 finally reaches the next potential significant snow event for England but only reaches the M4 corridor at T48. Dewpoints clearly below 0 or all; 850hpa temps below -5 excluding far SW & winds off the continent, looking good!
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You don't want to look at ARPEGE even more underwhelming... From what I've seen tho ARPEGE tend to underestimate the amount of snow.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Ben Sainsbury replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
It has been snowing here in Reading for a long while, but relatively weak so has not settled. However it appears the front intensified a little as it passed by. Good luck all
