Ben Sainsbury

To add from Mapantz here is the latest MU CAPE charts for now and midnight tonight for the UK. The developing showers/storms ahead of the small MCS in SE Devon are within a region of decent CAPE values atm, so there is a chance of them becoming weakly electrified. These CAPE values diminish significantly by midnight particularly from 10pm onwards. New EURO4 out too but not even worth looking at since it's way out already, but does send quite a potent MCS feature moving into Kent later so you never know However UKV is almost spot on, though everything is a touch west and south of the latest run.

Tonight is quite remarkable actually in that I really have no idea if and when storms may survive/make landfall in the UK. It's all down to radar watching at the moment and does look fairly promising in my opinion. Majority of the Hi-Res models have most of these storms dying out before making it half way across the channel so should be interesting!

Rise and shine everyone! Definitely an interesting look rain band atm. Looking south from my house, as expected can see a large Cb. Cloud height shooting over 10km according to Sat24.

Lightningmaps.org use the Blitzortung lightning data so I'm not sure how that works? Safe to say new cells are exploding into action and I did not expect this.

Based on the UKV which has so far done well with the distribution and timing of these showers then I would expect them to die out soon.

Hi All, Forgive me if it's obvious but which Extra Subscription includes the UKV Charts?

Thanks Zak! Am a little bit rusty with all the storm charts at the moment but with all the time in the world over the next few weeks hopefully I can scratch up a little!

Hi all, Haven't been around for a while but the latest round of showers/storms a few days ago have brought me back. We see an interesting almost Spanish Plume like scenario unfolding Friday into this weekend. Unfortunately since we aren't in July-September the storms won't be as active as we would hope despite that it does still look promising. No charts from me at the moment as we're still a little too far out however Friday evening looks like more general thundery rain as CAPE levels don't look particularly high. Midday Saturday could provide greater potential since we have a larger increase in CAPE & introduction of some basic levels of DLS. These storms all look to be in the form of elevated storms so English Channel SST's won't be a worry. However there's a small risk of something more surface based late Saturday across CS England if skies clear.

Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.

Must agree, a very large MCS particularly for UK standards anyway. Seems like there may be a developing squall line at the front; whilst on the back-edge it is evident the outflow of the MCS is developing new weaker storms.

Cannot link as I’m on my phone apologies however ConvectiveWeather have extended the Moderate Area to cover much of the UK!

How’s the UKV looking this morning?

Yeah EURO4 is by far the furthest east of all Hi-Res.

Thanks for showing the snapshots of the Netwx, my apologies for not showing them earlier. Latest run shows a slightly better flow off the continent.

Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.

Depends, may head down to Brean/Burnham-on-sea if storms look quite potent initially. If they develop as they move northwards then Pilning will be a good shout.

My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.

Generally with a mass of thunderstorms/MCS the eastern edge has the most frequent lightning/highest rainfall rates. Potentially could be what the Hirlam & Arpege are showing.

Wow, the Netwx model showing three 38'c icons for Thursday at 3pm over London/Thames Estuary! All time temperature record likely to be broken with this chart.

Certainly feels a while since we've had any imported thunderstorms here in Bristol. Hopefully we can be the breeding ground for a huge MCS to track across all the areas further North!

Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night... 1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.

Oh my that is an awfully nasty looking storm on the radar, look at those rainfall rates!

Yeah potentially this storm was surface based & not fully rooted to boundary layer. I expect storms to strengthen through the night as it moves into more favourable conditions.

Latest NMM looks interesting? Two areas of interest...

This area looks promising to me; represented well by some decent convective clouds on the Sat24 within the mass of cloud.