Ben Sainsbury

Well what can I say about Thursday/Friday aye. Very slim risk of an isolated marginally severe SB storm across Wales late Thursday evening (CAPE > 2000 J/KG) Thurs Night into Fri holds best interest. All dependent on timing of the front moving eastwards. Current thinking is far SW, W Wales into NW England & Southern Scotland best for any elevated lightning activity imo. As many have said typically the risk is corrected eastwards with time and with any plume typically storms form further east within the higher theta-E air so I feel many central areas may do well. Dependent on cloud cover on Fri we may see a few significant SB storms across E Anglia, Lincolnshire into NE England.

Very hopeful

Just a few photos from the storm that passed over me an hour ago. Marginally severe for sure, pictures don't do it justice!

Yes, had marble sized hail here in Keynsham, Bristol. Maybe marginally bigger but I've never seen anything like it!

Many of you across CS England may want to check out Tony's latest forecast update on UKWW: (don't get too excited ) Convective Outlook Weds 17th June 2020 - WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK Moderate Risk of Thunderstorms UK & East 3rd of Ireland. 11z-21z. (potential to extend risk further East)...

Sorry should've been clear, for tomorrow! NMM also supportive, latest UKV getting there!

EURO4 is also really nice, but focus on West Country, W Dorset into SE Wales.

Yeah looks like another shear funnel. I captured my first funnel a few days back and was a shear funnel. Typically spawn higher up in the atmosphere from general cumulus clouds! Quite rare & good find

Definitely feel like it's a waiting game for CS England into the West Country/Midlands/SE Wales. Yesterday saw 2 "rounds" of storms, so hopefully we can initiate a few more after this first round. Also last few days lightning activity has peaking mid-evening so we have a long long way to go yet today.

Just appears to be back-building imo.

I'm unsure on what to do today at the moment, probably going to stay at home to see how the developments take place. Probably won't travel too far Mendips should be a good enough vantage point for me.

Of course my apologies! Being in the SW it's sometimes easier for me to look at the France Sat to get an idea when the skies will clear. Thanks for the UK Sat anyway! Definitely they come in very handy!

Here is the satellite loop I am using if anyone is interested, shows the skies clearing from the CS/SE. Weather France, Satellite Weather France, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in France - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather France, Satellite Weather France, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in France - SAT24.com...

Latest ARPEGE run has removed this 'hole' of CAPE values so it's all good. UKV known to have overly extensive cloud cover has reduced CAPE values & hence fewer storms. But Sat24 already showing a clearing towards the IOW so all good!

ConvectiveWeather forecast update - Now 2 MDT Zones! Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next...

ConvectiveWeather forecast for tomorrow another MDT: https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-17

Come on then send it over

Chances are the activity to your SE will peter out before it reaches you. However if you're lucky you may see some distant lightning as the sun goes down

Glad everyone is enjoying the thunder and lightning at the moment! Just a reminder, I'm seeing the word "Supercell" used as a bit of a throw away term lately and it must be reminded that they are very rare in the UK. On a typical storm day there's probably <1% of a supercell forming.

Not bad at all, passing to my N now since I was about SW of Shifnal.

Currently chasing the storm NW of Wolverhampton, almost constant rumbling and flashes every 20 seconds. May have seen a wall-cloud but not clear cut at all. Now biblical rain.

Just heard my first deep rumble just south of Telford.

Can't be another storm heading towards Liverpool surely!

ESTOFEX forecast released for tomorrow too. 50% lightning risk covering much of England & Wales.

Definitely must've caught their attention!