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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    Steering flow judging by NMM & UKV currently WNW, but slowly transitioning to W & potentially WSW by late tonight.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Yeah, Sat24 shows the cumulus field developing/moving west each update so I think we should be good!
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Not sure where you're seeing that?
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Yep! Cumulus field beginning to grow rapidly all over England on Sat24.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Infrared video shows the anvil travelling over much of N Wales & Midlands not necessarily the actual storm. Steering flow at 300hpa is a direct southerly so anvil will move north ahead of the storms moving NW.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Majority of the storms look to be later in the evening than 5:45 unfortunately
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Yeah this is my thinking too! Not sure where Minchenhampton is but I know that Cleeve Hill on the Cotwolds is the highest point and has a great view of Gloucestershire.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Absolute corker near Coventry from my position, anvil crawlers, CG's, the lot!
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Drove up to near Oxford and have a distant lightning display of 3 seperate storms... Remarkable!
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Lift-off over Warwick!
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    This was indicated within ConvectiveWeathers forecast and is my assumption of what happens on the latest AROME where the shortwave meets the area of convergence over CS England combined with temperatures that could overcome the cap.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    A lot of hi-res models start the run incorrectly like the latest UKV run for example, AROME 12z at 4pm is in-line with the current situation and therefore shows real potential.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Latest AROME 12z almost spot on at the moment and targets an area between Birmingham-Northampton-Oxford around 10pm.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm not entirely sure where people are getting this NNW direction from? The steering winds are almost directly north, maybe marginally NNE.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Ain't it! Most of the models don't suggest any notable activity to start till at least 7-8pm.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    We'll soon find out!
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Yeah roughly at 500hpa ~ 5.5km.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Something of them probably as a result of anvil crawlers.
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Gloucestershire Airport at 28'c at 2pm. This is close to the region of lower-level convergence later needed to help initiate surface based convection.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Not sure we still need to hit 30-32'c for initiation to occur, I'm a little more confident of hitting it than earlier so I'm still going to head between Worcester & Stoke-on-Trent. Further north would be ideal but I cba to travel further.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    New ConvectiveWeather forecast update includes removal of MDT area: @staplehurst Any reasoning behind removal of the MDT area? Definite feels like there is less agreement among the models this morning from my own opinion. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next...
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Should definitely get a glimpse of that if you're Eastbourne eastwards.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Current thinking for me tomorrow anyway is positioning SW/W of Birmingham near the Bromsgrove area should everything go to plan. That UKV is an absolute peach btw, never seen returns that purple for that wide an area ever.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Based on CW's forecast, for those more experienced in the area what is a good vantage point/area to position when waiting for these storms?
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    EURO4 is very similar.
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