Ben Sainsbury

And now we have an easterly develop by T348, what more could you want!

The benefit in this setup is that the ground should cool with time since we're in that sort of freeze-thaw setup. Should aid in the settling of snow and this should help reduce temperatures further since any radiation is reflected.

That's the whole point in a forecaster, to make a prediction based on model output and our own knowledge (essentially what we're doing here). The forecast models don't factor this in is because the model output is based upon approximations and equations. To factor in adjustments like 'shifting a low pressure eastwards across the UK' would have huge consequences on the weather across the globe.

Those throwing their towel into the pram are the same that just take the 850hpa temperatures into consideration regarding snowfall. The pressure/thicknesses are also crucial, the following chart below shows thicknesses of <512dam, pressure ~ 985-990hpa. This is the equivalent of having an extra 200-300m in elevation. Also with the knowledge that 850hpa are generally too warm way in advance, we would expect this to correct a little colder closer to the time so there's not too much to worry about from my POV. Synoptic setups like these are relatively uncommon in our part of the world and I can very rarely remember a setup like this that hasn't produced the goods.

Way into the long-term by now, but we now have 1055hpa high across Greenland, could be a bit of a stonker going forward from T192.

4.4'c here, 3.9'c dewpoint here based on the Uni of Reading observatory.

Yep definitely some weak rotation within that.

@Alderc Bournemouth storm shield must've fallen now aye

Yeah no word of a lie the largest flash of lightning I have ever seen. Thunder was immense.

Oh wow for real? I may take a peak out my window in a minute.

Very much so! Low-topped, not the most impressive instability in the world & relatively shallow lapse rates all a contributor! That saying the amounts of DLS & LLS shown are extremely impressive along with its overlap of small-mod instability; whilst coupled with decent SRH values have led to supercell development with the risk of tornadoes. Risk continuing well on into tonight!

All I'm saying is if I lived in the SE or E Anglia I would be chasing today! No need to panick either if there are only few storms till late evening, both UKV/AROME/EURO4 don't initiate some meaty storms until after this time. Target area for me a triangle between Northampton-Cambridge-Peterborough.

To my surprise haha have also been woken up by thunder and lightning! Some very bright IC flashes.

AROME 18z carries storms on well into the night for N London, seems like a similar scenario to what happened at Cambridge today. UKV very underwhelming for tomorrow although very late tomorrow night/Sat morning has some thundery activity for London area.

Unfortunately no, for an MCS to develop you need decent wind shear to help organise and prolong any storms that develop. Tonight wind shear is virtually non-existent and any clumps of storms that form are just "daughter cells" that have been spawned nearby. ALSO: Tomorrow looking very good for N London in a line SW towards Reading, Salisbury & towards Weymouth based upon AROME 18z. N London looks best in particular.

Oh my the temptation to shoot down the M4, but I just know it'll die before I get anywhere near.

And to think my university house that I rent is in the E of Reading Currently showing 39 strikes a minute on lightning maps that is darn impressive. Even if you account for strikes counting as 2 or 3, say that's a minimum of 20/min which is crazy.

Really rubbing it in now ain't ya Haha I know you're joking I'm a light-hearted guy, and you're all so friendly could never take anything to heart! Very much appreciated however aha and yourself! Who's the ones really laughing now aye we're sat here watching people's reaction to their lightning displays...

Once this pis**ng shower moves through hopefully I can get a glimpse of that developing beast just NE of Reading!

What can I say I must be a brilliant young & upcoming meteorologist In all honesty, I meant "what do you reckon if I took a 3 and a half hour drive to Southend-on-Sea now" May have caused some slight confusion haha oops...

3 and a half hour drive from my gaff to those storms out near Southend-on-Sea, what you all saying

Currently situated just south of Yeovil & hoping the storm over Shaftesbury does its bit!

Not according to the latest AROME 6z update it isn't...

Intra-cloud lightning is definitely harder to pick up & it doesn't help that the thunderstorms were elevated meaning it was harder to detect.

Indeed