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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    Site of the charts can be found here: https://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Not because the latest UKV 9z output is good for me regarding storms or anything... But Monday late afternoon looking very impressive for CS England into the Midlands & NW England. Pretty much as severe as the UK can get with up to 3000J/Kg of CAPE, close to 25-30knts of DLS, very steep lapse rates & within a very high Theta-E airmass looking at severe thunderstorms and prolific lightning makers.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Very rarely do we see a hot spell of this magnitude & actually see a heat low develop far south of the UK which is also quite unusual. Since the atmosphere will be more akin to that of somewhere more tropical; will definitely be interesting to see what happens. After some of the unexpected weak convective activity yesterday I'm going into this a little more confident than other setups we've had in which a low approaches from the west like @Steel City Skies said above.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    That UKV run is honestly madness for much of England! Not entirely convinced everything will be shifted east with our current setup as the low drifts north from Spain & W France rather than approaching from the Atlantic.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    UKMO 12z on the other hand maybe bringing something a bit warmer again? T144:
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Oh my... NetWx NMM for next Wednesday! Wouldn't be surprised if we saw record breaking temperatures based on that 12z run.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Oh my the GFS Parallel looks absolutely crazy... Almost seeing 22'c 850hpa temps along the south coast mental.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    NMM 12z following something similar now.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Rumble here in Keynsham.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    These developments have the potential to produce the most frequent lightning and the best storm structures of today!
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    I do have an eye on developments across Somerset/Devon into Dorset around 6-7pm this evening. Almost all the models have converged on a potent line of storms tracking eastwards and show the most significant precipitation rates of the day here. Check EURO4 out for an example: Don't often see rates like that shown for the UK.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Ticking away? Have a good 6 hours of storms left.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm all for pictures of any types of cumulus as I find it particularly interesting to see a corresponding observation with the Sat24 loop. Regardless it is only a matter of time before the atmosphere goes bang. Convergence is setup on the NE side of the cumulus field and is expected to hover around Dan's MDT he issued this morning.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Really want to go out chasing today, but it's going to take at least a 3.5 hour drive ugh...
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Developing showers and potentially thunderstorms developing behind main front of rain in the channel.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Moving N/NE tonight. PWAT stands for Precipitable Water for those interested.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Doesn't matter if the area highlighted is capped. Any storms tonight spawning over the English Channel will form above the boundary layer and as a result will be elevated. Lack of AcCas may be as a result of limited moisture. GFS showing PWAT values to significantly increase midnight into the early hours. The storms on the picture you have posted coincides with the high PWAT values.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Satellite image here: Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall...
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    My bad maybe I should've been clearer. Imo the UKV is on its own in comparison to the other hi-res models. I actually hardly pay any interest to the GFS & ECM when thunderstorms are forecast but maybe that is just me. That saying I do agree with your final statement.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Looks like West Wales will see a cracking lightning show tomorrow night. UKV very much on its own.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    UKV is one of the Met Office's models so I'm not surprised they look almost identical haha!
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility. For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Looks like your typical weak channel MCS, since there is sufficient CAPE & DLS available. Shame particularly later in the night only the eastern edges will see much in the way of lightning activity. I think IOW may be in a cracking spot. That saying EURO4 favours far western areas and has performed particularly well as of late. AROME imo does the best of imported setups but still not great by any means. Shame it's not in range yet.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Haha For what it's worth GFS 18z shows a more widespread feature Thurs Night across CS England. Modest ML CAPE associated.
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