Ben Sainsbury

Turning extremely dark to my SE now, hopefully the line of dynamic rainfall/showers ahead intensify further!

Brilliant stuff! Thank you

I'm thinking the highest risk maybe further north, but I'm considering it as a starting point in case things kick off further south!

Hi Supacell, Am considering chasing tomorrow also, do you have any particularly good spots across W Midlands into Wales with good access routes etc. I'm thinking maybe positioning around the Shropshire AONB area? Maybe further north towards Shrewsbury. What's your thinking?

If I'm honest almost anything could happen today. Every model has practically watered down today's evening risk and same goes for the weak MCS moving NW. I really don't understand why every decent thunderstorm risk gets watered down, god I hope we get surprised today/tonight.

I thought so from a knowledgeable poster like yourself, still wanted to make sure aha!

ICON has been fairly consistent in following the trends of the ECM/UKMO etc as of late, so for it to spring onto a new idea makes me question if it is actually onto something.

For elevated storms you need ML CAPE & not SB CAPE, since the storm base begins higher up in our atmosphere. Unfortunately the UKV doesn't show ML CAPE, only SB.

No UKV is not awful, risk is just much further North than the other hi-res models. Theta-E values are a touch further east as low pressure seems to sit further NE hence why intensity appears lower on the UKV. Not something to worry about now unless other models come on board.

Oh don't you start hahaha! I haven't seen him in here in an awful long time now!

Yeah I know I saw this just a minute ago. The owner of the account is definitely playing a risky game!

0z to 3z in order: Storms moving in NW direction to W/WNW direction as night wears on.

AROME & UKV respectively:

AROME, NMM & UKV all supportive of an elevated MCS moving NW across EA & Lincolnshire very early on Sat. AROME/NMM further south than UKV though.

Looks fairly impressive to me for UK standards.

Link?

Just waiting on that shower now to move WSW, pleaseeee!

Some serious MU CAPE moving into Eastern regions.

Yeah it is a particularly challenging situation even for the most experienced over the next 48 hours determining when/where & how heavy the rainfall will be & if any lightning will occur.

One run (when it is an outlier or no agreement within the models). Here we have the GFS, UKMO & GEM all in fairly close agreement at T120 and ICON isn't a million miles away so it's not just because its everyone's favourite weather.

Judging by the model outputs and all background signals that I have seen so far anyway suggest maybe a slightly above average rainfall June at most. And that's assuming the low sits close to the SW of the UK, if we see high pressure push further west like the ICON 12z then we could be looking at quite a settled week or two with sporadic thunderstorms across the far W.

Really isn't dreadful even for far S/SW , GFS precipitation charts will appear a lot worse than what it will actually be. ICON & UKMO both quite promising bar the Day 4-5 of a mixture of frontal rain and thunderstorms across Eastern parts. Temperatures at low-mid twenties, then an increasing improving picture as the week goes on. Bar the GFS of course, but its day 9 charts are useless.

Yes Simon is very well respected within the Meteorology Department here at my university, definitely a worth a follow as he provides some great detailed explanations on a lot model outputs. It's now time for the next set of model outputs

ECM is probably the ideal run if you want a return back to drier warmer weather. 4 or 5 days of cooler, wetter weather at most!

Can't say I agree with you for the most part unfortunately, but there we have it, understand your take on it though. The low pressure system appears to become shallower through the day and since it's not that deep in the first place then the fronts won't be particularly active. Coupled with a warmish flow off the near-continent along with I feel like we could see a few weakly-electrified storms. Can agree however on the 2m temps but then again this is a week away so looking into the details is quite unnecessary.