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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    They are going to be elevated!
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Unfortunately the storms in the North haven't much instability available to them causing cloud tops to be quite low. Also cloud tops are relatively warm also reducing the risk of lightning.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    34.1'c - Heathrow - Saturday 29th June
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Some large convective raindrops beginning to fall here from a few developing showers. Looks like this will be the focal point for later.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Right now evident that there is some mid-level instability around. Might see one or two thunderstorms form in the next couple of hours.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    The Netweather NMM Model seems much more in line with what I would expect in regards to surface temperatures. Take Friday for example.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    ECM 0z seems to be relatively consistent compared to its last run, 20’c isotherm in the South by Thursday and 24’c isotherm clipping Cornwall and looks to advect further northwards too. Low remains cut off which is good ofc!
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    That is for SB CAPE and not ML CAPE as we're likely to see more elevated storms rather than surface based.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    I have no doubt that the storms next week will be worse than Thursday and a much more widespread too. The CAPE amounts are enormous and was an area in Thursday's storms which could've done with being higher. End of next week particularly looks very dangerous.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Extraodinary stuff from GFS 6z. By T171 it has the 26'c isotherm over the far SW.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    And I assume won’t be particularly active because the MCS is taking up all the “juice”?
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Yep at Brighton Pier atm, half a dozen flashes last 10-15 mins and seems to be back-building too!
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    There you go!
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Some rapid convection taking place SW of Caen according to Sat24.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    That's calm, you'll see some nice distant lightning.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Which model?
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    True, I was waiting until if ConvectiveWeather were putting out a Moderate or not, and they have so I'm sold!
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    From Bristol haha
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    I don't know the area well whatsoever so I'm heading there and just seeing what works out haha.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Oh yeah I'm at the university in Reading atm.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    We've had 26mm here in Reading and plenty more to come according to radar. Drains are almost full and localised flooding in places atm.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Just had a flash of lightning just to the south of me, was unexpected!
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