Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,348

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    Looks like we’re gonna exceed the predicted maximum once again here, already 21’c, 23-24’c possible? Can definitely see 30’c hit next week.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Tom we are all inspired by your excitement, that's exactly what we want! In other news, I have lots of confidence for Scotland tomorrow, whenever ConvectiveWeather issue a MDT zone you know it's about to go down!
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    One post of few from the next few days as I'm very busy. Latest AROME run modelling the current precipitation very well tonight.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Particularly dangerous situation evolving now for Eastern Parts of Edinburgh, some extremely intense rainfall rates in excess of 150mm/hr approaching the area in next 15 minutes, wouldn't be surprised if one or two localised reports of 60-80mm or more in the next few hours. Looks like storm is back building too.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm intrigued to why you think parts of the West Country/Wiltshire into CS England are also at a higher risk of storms compared to other areas, not saying you're wrong at all just interested! Would agree with your other two risk areas though!
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    The storm potential today feels very similar to yesterday and hence why I believe ConvectiveWeather have only gone with a Slight over a Moderate. Obviously today as it appears CAPE values aren't quite to the same level as yesterday but only marginally lower (in & around slightly <1000J/kg). We also see a basic level of DLS again of up to 30knts from North England to Southern Scotland. Yesterday we saw the strongest and longer living storms across much of Oxford and into the Midlands, these storms were marginally more organised because of the additional DLS which many other didn't have. Therefore as you see below, I favour much of the far North of England into Southern Scotland as my location of interest today. We already have a small cumulus field developed towards Edinburgh due to a good amount of surface heating already. May possibly see a greater frequency of lightning today compared to yesterday too.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    I personally think the Met Office issued the Amber warning far too early, as they primarily based their risk zone on models and not as the situation was evolving. The Amber warning placed over the Midlands a few days ago, was placed after the storms formed and merged for longer spells of rain. That being said here in South Bristol, we weren’t under the majority of showers and had some very torrential rain at times so I’m not complaining just my opinion. I wonder what today provides...
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Had a loud rumble in Keynsham, nothing showing up on the lightning detector though. EDIT: Another brief rumble seems to have appeared on Blitzortung now.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Have to agree, Sat24 up until this point anyway haven't shown the showers over the UK to have reached sufficient cloud heights for lightning activity. The final frame of the Sat24 towards Brighton looks very promising.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Looking extremely dark to my North, the pictures don’t do it justice but looks like a small wall cloud in the 2nd picture.
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Shame, never heard a thing from Keynsham looking extremely promising now, if anyone is stuck under the trains of shower it could get very ugly!
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    And there we have our first sferic just North of Brighton. The coverage of showers are increasing by the minute it seems on the radar.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Me thinks this is a matter of time before we see our first lightning strike over the region. Especially since temperatures will continue to rise and the introduction of more unstable air from the SE.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Tom this post isn't destined for the Convective/Storm Discussion thread and moreso the Regional threads.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Some embedded cells begin to form in the mass of cloud across the West Country, EURO4 currently doing fairly well in line with current situation.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Indeed small shower just formed to my SW, may possibly see a sort of chain reaction soon?
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    The first two words in their description is "severe thunderstorms" I don't often recall the Met Office saying that? Two, much of the SW and South Wales haven't particularly had much rainfall (North Devon and Central Wales in particular) compared to Midlands and parts of the SE. The following chart shows rain totals from 28th May till present.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Those storms along towards Brussels and Netherlands look very violent, 130 strikes a minute so far hopefully a sign of the intensity of what may be to come across parts of Southern England later. I wonder if the far NE coast of East Anglia may see a surprise!? Quite intrigued by the residual cloud cover pushing in from the English Channel, the cloud really seems to struggle to move north of the M4 before breaking down and producing sunnier spells.
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Real-Time Lightning maps currently seem to be having an issue with distributing random lightning strikes which aren't appearing on Blitzortung (Which is where they get their data from). I find the Blitzortung website more accurate and reliable: http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Sun is also out here and 19'c too. This is exactly the start we needed to see some surface based convection later, temperatures in N Bristol nearing 20'c already; won't be long and we could see the possibility of a few showers form ahead of the area of rain on the south coast. Currently favour M4 northwards into S Midlands for any early morning showers.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    Tomorrow is looking to be a really interesting day in regards to organised and severe (possibly) storm activity. I will not be producing a storm risk map but I'll still identify to places at highest risk. If we look at the charts, CAPE levels look in and around 1000J/kg which to clarify will be reached if we receive sufficient surface heating, stubborn cloud cover will significantly reduce these amounts. The interesting area for me is the introduction of basic levels of DLS, we're looking at 30kts over parts of CS England into West London. Here we could see more organised convection with updrafts having the ability to sustain themselves and as a result we could see some very prolific lightning given steep lapse rates too. Also as updrafts will be sustained through the basic levels of DLS we could see one or two isolated cases of large hail. There is a small possibility of these storms of CS/SE England could exhibit supercellular characteristics for a time where we see best overlap of convergence, DLS and CAPE. Areas further west will also see some active thunderstorms although less severe as a whole.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Just because an area shows high CAPE, that doesn't necessarily show where thunderstorms will form.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    In regards to the Met Office Warning area, the 3 High-Res models of NMM, AROME and EURO4 all show a similar area at risk. It's very rare I see the purple colours show up over the UK on EURO4 from my experience.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Perfect one here: http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    We have lift off along the south coast, cumulus field has begin to develop as a result of a convergence zone setting up. As the first of showers have formed over Brighton, I expect any areas eastwards will miss out now as the risk transfers westwards throughout the day.
×
×
  • Create New...