Ben Sainsbury

Netweather NMM model currently has a really good grasp on current positioning and intensity of the snow over the south. As we head pass midnight we should already see marked increases in intensity and more so into the realms of early morning tomorrow. Hopefully it can bring the goodies to Bristol!

Powdery snow here in Bristol now, hopefully we can get a thin layering of powder snow before some much larger flaked wet snow tonight to bring some decent accumulations!

Yes you could say that, the mild days have brought the ground temperatures much above zero, however this snow and cold rain falling onto the ground is likely to decrease the ground temperature and into tonight along with much colder air, ground temps are unlikely to get above 0'c and snow will readily settle overnight.

The Netweather NMM Model seems to agree with this very well. Lapse between Sunday 00:00 - Monday 00:00 Snow.avi

Frome is about to get pelted, could expect 3-4cm an hour from that if it all settled!

Whilst we have the potential for snow on Saturday and Sunday; storm lovers don't write today off! Check this image by the Netweather NMM model, certainly the potential for a few storms today developing around M4 and moving northwards. Current showers should intensify over course of the day.

Large changes in areas of interest overnight... Now appears that cloud cover is going to be much less extensive than yesterday, therefore more diurnal heating and more storms should form over the afternoon. Main area of interest today is in connection with a large convergence zone stretching across the Bristol Channel and along the M4, therefore any thunderstorm activity is likely to develop here and move N/NW'wards. Forecast Map Below:

Disappointing day as a whole, a few potent showers but nothing of a note, showers that did form was in conjunction with peak instability values and diurnal heating. Main reason for today not playing out is as a result of far too much cloud cover, temperatures didn't reach values expected. Tomorrow follows a similar story as today with something a little more potent possible across the far south towards the end of tomorrow. General consensus is that any showers will form in connection with any diurnal heating and a convergence zone which looks to set up across East Midlands so that would be my focus for tomorrow. The odd rumble of thunder possible w/ small hail but overall severity risk is slim similar of which to today. Don't have access to my forecast map right now, but a general isolated risk extending across much of England tomorrow. However a risk of some storms (fairly elevated in nature) making its way across the channel later tomorrow (9pm onwards), though these are likely to die out from cool SST's given low bases.

A quick review of what I had forecasted yesterday, Amounts of CAPE look good for this time of year, up to 800J/kg Continuation of theme for steep lapse rates tomorrow Showers/Storms dependent on whether cloud clover can clear. Overall severity risk and organisation of storms look on the low side. Expect: Small Hail, Heavy Rainfall, Occasional Lightning & Strong Wind Gusts. Have included a risk map below: (Favorable areas South Midlands into South Wales)

Advanced Outlook: As it stands for many area in CS England and Midlands have a good chance for some decent thunderstorm activity over Thursday. Current CAPE levels looks to be the highest we have seen all year, approaching 600J/kg of SB Cape. This combined with steep lapse rates looks to set off a few weakly electrified thunderstorms. DLS, low dewpoints and relatively low SRH looks apparent for Thursday, reducing the risk of any real severity in any heavy showers or thunderstorms. Still the potential is there!

That’s right!

Correct a few strikes around, looked to have been around 1:30am in the morning. The amount of strikes over the course of this morning off the coast of Cornwall quite staggering.

Interesting scenario beginning to play out at the moment. Despite marginal instability a few heavy showers have currently formed from Salisbury to Portsmouth, this is in connection with a convergence zone off the south coast. This convergence zone is to spread NNE across the late afternoon towards Reading. Skies are beginning to clear across SE areas currently, as a result best place to be currently an area from Southampton to Brighton to Reading. The occasional lightning strike looks possible here.

Definitely after all this radar watching I've spent watching snow reaching the south coast, reminds me of the large thunderstorms and MCS's which cross the channel. Fingers crossed for a good'un and hope we see more of this!...

See you on the other side

I do wonder whether both the BBC and MetO take into account lying snow when deciding what the temperatures are going to be. I've noticed yesterday for here they predicted a max of -2'c when it didn't get much above -4'c. Today they predicted max of -1'c and it hasn't really got above -3'c all day. I wonder whether tomorrow we could see yet another ice day as the MetO have predicted a max of 1 degree. We shall find out!

After some of my top scientific measurements, can confirm had another 2-3cm today taking us in Keynsham to a total of 12cm, but much more in places.

After this spell of snowfall this afternoon, looks like there could be a few heavy snow showers later tonight and possibly a few light ones tomorrow morning.

Moderate snow and moderate sized flakes! Not even in the main bulk of green! EDIT: Heaviest snow we've had so far, why couldn't we have this all yesterday!

Why in the last two days have all the heaviest snowfall formed near and moved over Cardiff...

Can add some light snow, can confirm 1 or 2 bigger flakes mixed in just need an increase in intensity now!

Lucky bugger, I'm on the far NE point of the intense echoes and still snizzle...

True I'm unsure whether tomorrow's event is likely to be as significant as today's but what I can be sure is that any snow that does fall is likely to be of the wetter variety.

Yeah not particularly heavy tho.

Nothing on the lightning detector, unless it was a power flash?