Ben Sainsbury

On the bright side if we do get any more snow, it is likely to settle as many surfaces likely to freeze overnight.

Already looks like the GFS 18z is even further south than 12z. The position of the rainfall across W France is further north than the GFS 18z predicts at 1am.

Feel like the precipitation across the Midlands is somewhat intensifying & enlarging in area. Doubt it'll affect us tho.

Seems to be fluctuating, when precipitation is light mainly sleety, when heavy majority is snow, very annoying!

Very very lightly here now.

Very windy and all rain has stopped here.

Funny enough beginning to see a few big flakes appearing here.

Incredible as well for areas in Bristol, current temperatures observations show Bristol currently at 5'c, whereas Filton currently at 1'c.

Must say the Netwx SR Model has modelled this extremely well so far determining the northern extent of the mild air.

Does anyone know what the Netweather radar uses to determine the "weather type" for the precipitation??

And to be fair here in Keynsham now it's more snow than it is rain but only very small flakes.

Observations from Bristol indicate current temperature at 1'c. Although precipitation is mainly sleet likely to be because of light precipitation. Once precipitation intensity increases with more evaporative cooling from the SW likely to see the band of rain ready to turn to snow

Expect majority of precipitation is evaporating as it is so light at the moment.

Radar indicate of rain turning to sleet as it approaches Wells/Frome area, rainfall intensity slightly increasing too.

Funny just under an hour ago I tweeted them... @metoffice We’ve seen an increasingly southerly shift of the potential area for snow for Sunday/Monday but you haven’t made any corrections to the warning area. Personally it is only right to move warning area southwards in line with the M4. (10:34pm) They replied with... Evening Ben, thanks for sharing your concerns, please be assured that we are monitoring the situation very closely and will make adjustments to the warning areas as and where we feel it is necessary. Stay #weatheraware at http://bit.ly/2h2iEWI ^Kat (10:38pm) lol

A somewhat small shift southwards on the GFS 12z bringing the snowline marginally southwards as a result.

In every scenario this isn't always going to be the case, though often this happens more frequently than not. Anyway still a good 120h out yet.

Oh would love for it to follow, but can just see it being difficult and going against what current runs suggest aha.

Clearly some differences appearing as we edge towards T144, at least as Day 10 has shown with T96 regarding the current setup is that we have good agreement tho the GFS having pushed the low further east compared to UKMO and ECMWF.

Definitely greater amplification on GFS 18z, and some clear differences regarding the low in the Atlantic. A much stronger low developing towards Iceland too displacing much of the cold air from the UK.

Low pressure moving up through the Bay of Biscay Friday into Saturday, northerly winds across much of the UK bringing -5'c 850hpa temperatures could bring the potential for a snow event across much of Central UK during Saturday morning. Timing is key here whether the low moves up through the night or during the day & whether enough cold air can wrap around the low pressure as it exits NE'wards. Low probability of a snow event given it's still 3-4 days away. Apologies if a thread has already been set up for this & if it is in the right area, not been active in a while.

Somewhat eerie here today too, a clearly unstable atmosphere and warm which is very strange for this time of year. Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now. Link below showing sustained hurricane force Cat 1 winds of 80mph+, gusts exceeding much higher. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=348.32,50.66,3000

Ophelia pretty much completely in view now on Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual Eye still evident?

Just saw a very distant bolt of fork lightning from storm to the North, got me very excited actually!

Definitely some good convection taking place over Gloucester areas. Can see tops of anvil from Filton, looking impressive!