Ben Sainsbury
-
Posts
2,348 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
-
Looks like a possible MCS forming Thursday 03z, significant rainfall rates appearing on Netwx MR, which I don't think I've seen such intensity before. Seems to form in North Bay of Biscay and move across SE England, although earlier runs suggesting the area of storms to move across Devon and Cornwall. -
According to XCWeather seems to be evident at various locations, but thanks anyway.
-
The dewpoint is the same as the temperature here, is that unusual?
-
All-nighter for me then. It's a difficult scenario for those further south, GFS is the only model of the 3 that I look at which show any precipitation of note tonight. However we know that GFS often over-eggs the amount of showers around. Euro4 and Netwx-SR having none of it. I'm still inclined to think we won't see anything tonight.
-
You are correct, it's just there in the middle of nothing.
-
A midget shower exists in the English Channel. Makes me think what its doing there!
-
Plenty of instability here tonight! Some AC around too.
-
For the Midlands, I have my eyes on this...
-
I know we have more general thunderstorms now, but as CAPE builds I think the strongest thunderstorms will be in the areas which you have just mentioned.
-
And just to note those in the region where severe storms are possible, make sure to get plenty of photos!
-
Not only that but GFS gives us another potential thunderstorm event on Thursday too.
-
I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning. These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners. http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail
-
Out of all the charts I have see the GFS is currently most on point with precipitation charts. Euro4 has no precipitation anywhere near the South of Ireland. Netwx charts have no precipitation of note. GFS Ensembles some still suggesting rain to Southern Areas of UK, more North. GFS on track but has precipitation intensity wrong but judgment of area right.
-
Euro4 predicting the same, maybe a little further north.
-
Sorry I should have been more clear, I meant "plenty" as in what could have happened, apologies.
-
What do you mean was anything ever forecast? Plenty was forecast it was just a case of whether we would overcome the cap.
-
How do you know this? Where? All I know is a convergence zone is setting up over the M4/SE Wales.
-
July 19th (not sure what year) GFS forecasted in excess of 3500 J/kg with -12 Lifted Index, so with this sheer amount of energy available any storms that do develop could be pretty severe.
-
As a matter of fact the Netwx SR charts are in line with current Sat24 observations. With a shower forming in SE Wales/Glos where current AC is building.
-
Some much larger cumulus developing now!
-
Some decent sized cumulus around, positive sign right now and hope the cap can be broken later!
-
Most of it probably being evaporated. "Dry Thunderstorm"
-
The storm nr Sleaford seems to have developed a nice anvil according to radar and sat24.
-
Really not the case though to be honest, I mean Lincolnshire and that have had their fair share the past few years, but there have been plenty of times where other areas like Bristol, (we've had 2/3 storms already) and France imports this year have come quite regularly already so!
-
Turns out looks like a small shower moved along the south coast an hour ago. Maybe look like an anaprop but looks real. Let's hope we can see more initiation as the cold front moves southwards.
