Ben Sainsbury

Oh would love for it to follow, but can just see it being difficult and going against what current runs suggest aha.

Clearly some differences appearing as we edge towards T144, at least as Day 10 has shown with T96 regarding the current setup is that we have good agreement tho the GFS having pushed the low further east compared to UKMO and ECMWF.

Definitely greater amplification on GFS 18z, and some clear differences regarding the low in the Atlantic. A much stronger low developing towards Iceland too displacing much of the cold air from the UK.

Low pressure moving up through the Bay of Biscay Friday into Saturday, northerly winds across much of the UK bringing -5'c 850hpa temperatures could bring the potential for a snow event across much of Central UK during Saturday morning. Timing is key here whether the low moves up through the night or during the day & whether enough cold air can wrap around the low pressure as it exits NE'wards. Low probability of a snow event given it's still 3-4 days away. Apologies if a thread has already been set up for this & if it is in the right area, not been active in a while.

Somewhat eerie here today too, a clearly unstable atmosphere and warm which is very strange for this time of year. Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now. Link below showing sustained hurricane force Cat 1 winds of 80mph+, gusts exceeding much higher. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=348.32,50.66,3000

Ophelia pretty much completely in view now on Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual Eye still evident?

Just saw a very distant bolt of fork lightning from storm to the North, got me very excited actually!

Definitely some good convection taking place over Gloucester areas. Can see tops of anvil from Filton, looking impressive!

I've not seen this intensity of rainfall in quite a while!

I'm a little too far south to view this unfortunately, must be impressive!

Odd looking, low hanging cloud base to my north. Fortunately sun poking through now to increase surface heating.

Some very convective looking skies here, and some very dark cloud bases too, could be an interesting afternoon!

Quick one off post on this thread, but going to be flying home from Palma to Bristol soon, with apparent MCS across Southern France, should be a good view!

Active storms look to nail Bristol in the next few hours, enjoy it while it's there boys as not home to see it myself!

From my inexperienced eye, storms forming to SE as a result of outflow from large thunderstorm system to west. Either way someone is going to get something today/tonight.

Typical one of the most promising risks of storms for Bristol and I'm on holiday, would post more but not had time! Good luck to you all and hope the storms can crack open the Bristol Storm Shield

Probably due to the shallow CAPE values and fairly low lapse rates.

My thoughts of potential new developments atm:

Right now if I were you I'd situate myself in the triangle between Northampton, Peterborough and Cambridge. There is an area of clear sky over West Midlands, north of the current line of AcCas, as this continues to move east strong dirnual heat could spark off a storm or two just north of the line of showers atm.

I can just see that line of precipitation forming exploding into some huge thunderstorms as the heat builds. All from that line of Cumulus that I saw earlier. The line of precipitation is slowly increasing in intensity too.

Precipitation beginning to form just south of Oxford along the line of developing cloud.

Some promising areas of Cumulus to my south now, exciting ahah! Really continuing to grow to good heights now.

Watch the line of cloud develop from Exeter to Cambridge on Sat24, possible convection could be started here in connection with the approaching cold front? http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual

There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.

It's so funny how even at this stage the GFS brings another eastward shift. Wouldn't say I'm surprised though happens every time.