Ben Sainsbury

Crazy stuff in Bristol, was just sat at my desk and all of a sudden the chair I was sat in started shaking was crazy, truly indescribable feeling.

Only have a basic understanding too, but the ECM which have double the vertical levels of GFS has a better grasp at predicting the track and development of weather systems than the GFS. I think?

Interesting, done a little research... For comparison with JMA's 100 levels of vertical resolution. The ECM uses 137 vertical levels, whereas the GFS uses 64 levels. Whether there are any relation to how the JMA & ECM have a similar pattern at the moment unsure. EDIT: ARPEGE runs with 105 vertical levels. Therefore the 3 models all of which following a blocked pattern all have the largest amount of vertical levels compared to the UKMO and GFS which have less.

Correct! If I'm right its upgrade took place just over a year ago.

I have been thinking and reading about each of the models especially the GFS and ECM. I have seen many mention on here that the ECM has been particularly poor this winter, whether this be the case or not, this has no impact on the current projections from the ECM. If I'm going to be quite honestly I think this is merely a case of all the models performing exceptionally poor given the SSW. Given a record breaking SSW how can any of us expect the models to handle this well when this is data they haven't received before? (If you know what I mean) For the cold scenario that we all hope for the ICON has been excellent with consistency but I have a lack of knowledge to comment on it's general consistency, however now the ECM is in line with the ICON (and should take the lead in regards to the upcoming pattern) I next expect the GFS to move in line. After some research it seems that the GFS whilst using the ECM initialisation data performed much better than using its own "initialisation" data, you may wonder why this is relevant? Well I expect as I mentioned already for the GFS to be the next model to now move in line with the ECM as it begins to latch on to the trends that the ECM have picked up on. Whether this is relevant or not, it's my own personal opinion (& very much an amateur), we'll see what happens! For the time being lets enjoy some very controversial model outputs!

I completely understand where you are coming from, but I still struggle to believe that the pattern will completely flip being just 96 hours out. We can of course see small changes but I just don't see its latest run being wrong given its current consistency.

Really is almost impossible to tell. From what I see the low coming out the south coast of Greenland is a little stronger, high pressure over UK a little more SE, all in all minuscule differences which shouldn't have much of an impact to the general pattern that is evolving.

Am I not the only one excited about these showers in the NW!?

It's interesting with this upcoming event Thursday night into Friday. The current GFS shows rain turning to snow readily across the SE as the colder 850hpa temps move in from behind. There has been an increasing tendency over the last few days for our weather pattern to correct east. Not only that but from my own experience I don't expect the front to move so quicker into the block of cold air sat over us, have a strange feeling the front is likely to slow down or to be pushed further as it moves eastwards hopefully allowing the cold air to undercut the front. Obviously the NetWx SR currently shows just a band of rain for Friday but if the front doesn't move through so swiftly, who knows what will happen.

Was going to add for Friday looks impressive for some heavy back edge snow as the cold 850hpa temps move in. Temperatures hovering around the 2'c mark, arriving early morning, marginal but could pay off.

Aye don't be so sure that screenshot of the current radar is a good 20 mins in front of the predicted rainfall! For all we know that rain band could fade that much within 20 minutes! From what I've seen according the Netweather SR model that the band of precipitation seems to reinvigorate as it passes through the Irish Sea.

Quite amazed how few changes there are up +180. Here we begin to see a much deeper low develop near Newfoundland bringing greater WAA into Greenland which could benefit us later on; in the realms of FI tho.

Some 148 members viewing the chat right now! On topic you're right, even though the timing of the front is a good 6 hours in front of the 0z, the warmer uppers seemed to be more efficiently mixed out bringing quite heavy snow to central areas. If we can see the warm uppers mix out a little earlier we could end with a widespread event.

Because they are still unsure about the eastern extent of the front on Tuesday, still a lot of uncertainty regarding it.

I only thought I'd ever see marginal setups for our areas, but for the first time in what seems like forever it isn't. It feels like heaven knowing that any precipitation that is going to fall will almost always be snow over the next week.

For those in hope of snow in Bristol being slightly N'wards and W'wards the area of snow is beginning to move it's way East and only hope being showers to our West unfortunately.

The area of precipitation to our north is much further north than what majority of the models suggest for 3am, could possibly allow the storm moving up the English channel to move a little further north than expected. So this will hit area further west than what BBC are forecasting, IN MY OPINION, we will see. My thoughts:

On the bright side if we do get any more snow, it is likely to settle as many surfaces likely to freeze overnight.

Already looks like the GFS 18z is even further south than 12z. The position of the rainfall across W France is further north than the GFS 18z predicts at 1am.

Feel like the precipitation across the Midlands is somewhat intensifying & enlarging in area. Doubt it'll affect us tho.

Seems to be fluctuating, when precipitation is light mainly sleety, when heavy majority is snow, very annoying!

Very very lightly here now.

Very windy and all rain has stopped here.

Funny enough beginning to see a few big flakes appearing here.

Incredible as well for areas in Bristol, current temperatures observations show Bristol currently at 5'c, whereas Filton currently at 1'c.