Ben Sainsbury
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Temperature has dropped 0.7'c in 10 minutes here as its now dropped to 3.9'c, dew-points still remains at 2.3'c -
Currently on campus at the moment and the first few specs of rain are falling though much seems to be evaporating before reaching the ground. Current temperature of 5.1'c and a dew-point of 2.3'c which has bizarrely gone up in the past hour. Though sun is setting now so fingers crossed.
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For all towards Somerset and Devon, watch out for the Bristol Channel streamer tonight, may prove to have more potential of accumulating snow tonight than the front passing through atm.
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But then we’re in a never ending cycle of searching for cold in FI, when in reality some cold and snow is right on our doorsteps, seems perfectly reasonable that 95% of people are focusing on the next 3 days. We have cold NOW why look ahead 10 days for it. I don’t get it lol.
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By T72 a significant movement south of the -4'c isotherm potential for many more to see snow further south along with those further north. Could be a widespread event! EDIT: The whole front just loses its energy...
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ICON 18z seem very few comment on it so far, but just at T24 the low and any precipitation are noticeably northwards still! Lots like more coming into play! And by T63 the next low is definitely sliding, good signs!
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Don't even want to post the Netweather Hi-Res model for Tuesday 4pm... Um extremely underwhelming but typically this model doesn't perform too well.
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The simple answer is yes!
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Wouldn't take much on the ICON 18z for the same shift northwards as it was from the 12z and we'd be looking at some SIGNIFICANT accumulations across much of England. EDIT: For a time it actually develops a tiny hidden feature just off the SE coast!
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By T33 on the ICON 18z there are already hints of the low being a tad further northwards as a result of it being a little deeper too!
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Not that I can see, if there is one it may have formed after it goes to lower res so I cannot view.
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Here is the NetWx Hi-Res model, this is as far as it goes for now however. Chart is for Tuesday at midday, 3, 6 & 9pm. The lower res goes on to show this...
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Indeed the ICON 12z is a touch south, but the features over the UK remain and the outcome is relatively similar. For the system on Thursday the low remains a little shallower at the moment and so less warm air is dragged into the system.
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ECM has the best verification stats on average for the entire globe; nobody can be sure on its verification for our part of the world. Also the ECM hasn't performed particularly great this winter either especially regarding the last fortnight or so.
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A few frames later and the next slider doesn't seem to phased as much with the low to the North of the UK, hinting possibly at a slightly shallower low on Thursday.
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Obviously because of all our home biases, being in Reading, the ECM mean is probably a little too north for for an all snow event for M4 southwards, so a southward correction would be welcomed. I don't think I've found a potential snow event so nerve-wracking before! Can we all compromise here, Tuesday = Midlands southwards & Thursday = Midlands northwards?
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Do you have corresponding 850hpa temps for the ECM Mean for that particular time?
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Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall within a 6 hour period.. WOW.
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Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.
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ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone) From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.
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Netwx MR Model - Snow Risks till Friday: Sunday: Back-edge sleet/snow? Monday: Feature moving across UK, snow risk highest north. Tuesday: Precipitation clips south coast, no notable snow. Thursday: Heavy snow to rain event, the back to snow.
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And GFS Parallelish
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Remarkable consistency from GFS Parallel bringing another widespread snow event Tuesday night.
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I already get the vibe the GFS P is going to deepen the first low up a lil again and not leave it like the OP run.
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GFS Parallel coming next... The last few runs of the GFS P have been remarkably snowy so we shall wait and see what it lays on our tables! It has always been quite keen to deepen the low pressure for Tuesday's event!
