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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    Perfect one here: http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    We have lift off along the south coast, cumulus field has begin to develop as a result of a convergence zone setting up. As the first of showers have formed over Brighton, I expect any areas eastwards will miss out now as the risk transfers westwards throughout the day.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Hey, don't forget to put your location in your bio! Cumulus field definitely beginning to grow across the south coast. Bournemouth/Southampton area may be a good place to target for any storms.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    If you compare the location of somewhere under the blanket of cloud to one on the SE coast, there's a difference of 11'c! Incredible how a few hours of sunlight can cause such a temperature contrast to an area of low cloud.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    The issue is we have no trigger over our area and the atmosphere is capped so hence why the clouds are growing quickly but then dying again. I doubt we'll get anything else
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Has been very poor, have to admit though a few of the earlier runs were consistent of the storm running up towards the west country about 7-8am, which is exactly what had happened. The worst bit about it, is the inconsistency I feel.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    And for the 2nd time gone and made the drive to my vantage point only for it to die as I got there. I love storms
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Calm down tiger!
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    I was quite selfish to analyse that as a point of interest because I can get a vantage point over Dundry, I would prefer if something formed near Winchester.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    This is the area I have my eye on...
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Have a great vantage point currently on top of Chelwood hills, a nice bright purple flash as I speak!
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Various towering cells stretching right across my horizon! Incredible to see might have to take a drive towards Chelwood.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Beginning to see the towering cells to my south. They already have such extraodinary height given how far I am away!
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Dunno about the lightning strike near Bristol, barely a cloud in the sky.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Some small towering altocumulus castellanus here, positive to see ahead of main activity.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Must be some rapid developments as nothing reminiscent of a thunderstorm over Southampton bar a few showers, exciting time. Everyone watch the next two radar updates, I expect the channel to explode hehe...
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Possibly in which case, much of West Country into Wiltshire, S Wales and S Midlands may see nothing. However I feel the western clag of the split MCS will track much much further west but we won't know until it happens.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track. As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Patience is all that required and has now delivered on the south coast. Have high confidence that these will develop further.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Promising signs, I've seen a few reports of this elsewhere too and can be seen on Sat24. In regards to a bust, the NMM, AROME & EURO4, all don't show anything of note till 7pm, 9pm and 9pm respectively.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    If we take a look at the cloud height on the Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/en/nl/km It is clear for the most part that the storms in the far SW are decaying. And if anything the very large active storm possible MCS over France is maintaining, if not growing in size. We should expect further activity by 7/8pm.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Atmosphere continuing to destabilise across the channel in association with the trough moving northwards. As skies continue clear across much of Southern England I expect more showers/storms to intensity and form further eastwards to the current showers.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Tom I suggest looking at the Sat24, which is a satellite image animation and you can use it to kind of predict when the cloud will clear. Use this link: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual I expect for our region the cloud will disperse by midday.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    By the looks of it indeed so, might have to make a drive northwards if these develop further, the NMM currently modelling this area well (although a little more north) only disappointment is no strikes so far!
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Especially in the last 10-15 minutes, a few cells have fired over Reading and look explosive on Sat24.
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