Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Some small towering altocumulus castellanus here, positive to see ahead of main activity.
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4 minutes ago, James86 said:
Thunder just heard in Southampton.
Must be some rapid developments as nothing reminiscent of a thunderstorm over Southampton bar a few showers, exciting time.
Everyone watch the next two radar updates, I expect the channel to explode hehe...
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Just now, Alderc said:
Got a feeling the Bournemouth/Southampton area could in the dead zone if that mcs is splitting.
Possibly in which case, much of West Country into Wiltshire, S Wales and S Midlands may see nothing. However I feel the western clag of the split MCS will track much much further west but we won't know until it happens.
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I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track.
As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.
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Patience is all that required and has now delivered on the south coast. Have high confidence that these will develop further.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I can also confirm, towers are going up just to the SE of me.
Promising signs, I've seen a few reports of this elsewhere too and can be seen on Sat24.
In regards to a bust, the NMM, AROME & EURO4, all don't show anything of note till 7pm, 9pm and 9pm respectively.
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If we take a look at the cloud height on the Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/en/nl/km
It is clear for the most part that the storms in the far SW are decaying.
And if anything the very large active storm possible MCS over France is maintaining, if not growing in size. We should expect further activity by 7/8pm.
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Atmosphere continuing to destabilise across the channel in association with the trough moving northwards. As skies continue clear across much of Southern England I expect more showers/storms to intensity and form further eastwards to the current showers.
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19 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:
I can't this cloud clearing up yet over this area of Wiltshire and is it Sunny in Dorset ?
Tom I suggest looking at the Sat24, which is a satellite image animation and you can use it to kind of predict when the cloud will clear.
Use this link: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual
I expect for our region the cloud will disperse by midday.
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4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
you're not kidding Ben!......maybe we'll get lucky from these?....they seem to be tracking down the M4 corridor
By the looks of it indeed so, might have to make a drive northwards if these develop further, the NMM currently modelling this area well (although a little more north) only disappointment is no strikes so far!
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22 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
looks like a couple of sharp showers have just fired over NW London
Especially in the last 10-15 minutes, a few cells have fired over Reading and look explosive on Sat24.
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Agreed very eerie feeling! Not quite sure what to expect for tonight/tomorrow in regards for rainfall/storms.
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8 minutes ago, Lauren said:
I'll be surprised to see anything tonight tbh.
I'd actually second this, for some reason I don't have much confidence in the risk of storms tonight, I don't see much potential though likely to be proved wrong!
Then again ConvectiveWeather's forecasts have been very impressive, and brings me a lot of confidence for tonight on the flip side.
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The explosive development of the storms along the south coast, look very impressive on the Sat24.
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Just for fun of course, but home-grown MCS anyone?
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8 minutes ago, Lauren said:
Where are you seeing this? I can't see anything on the charts. Not being snarky, genuine question.
Can you elaborate, I'm not sure that I know what you mean?
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That time again for thunderstorm activity is upon us, let's take a look at how things are shaping up for tomorrow.
General consensus is for CAPE values to reach between 400-500J/kg in some of the more favourable locations tomorrow, severe parameters look relatively limited for tomorrow so no severe potential unfortunately. Saying that there is a possibility of seeing a FC or two tomorrow given decent LLS and wind convergence zones.
Convergence zones along with strong heating look to be the prime factor for initiating storms and these are evident across much of East Wales/Central Areas along with parts of Dorset into Devon. Storms moving SW throughout the day and evening.
Beginning with the GFS: As always CAPE values are being well overcooked here by more than double. Storms I don't expect to be as widespread (and a little east compared to other models), though again Central Areas/CS-SW England are the most favourable locations.
Next the ECMWF: CAPE values not exceeding 400J/kg, similar to various Skew-T charts I've analysed. ECMWF has a main focus on Devon, although fewer showers across Central areas.
A last look at the NMM Model and EURO4: The NMM model showing the formation of several convergence zones across Central areas and the SW, although again the majority of the higher res models favoring much of the SW over Central areas.
Therefore the general coverage of storms looks to be better over the SW regarding my forecast and if I had to choose a particular location tomorrow I'd have to say in and around the Yeovil area.
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Was only just yesterday the Met Office were predicting UV levels to hit 6 and now they predict UV levels of 7 for Sunday and Monday. Gonna have a cracking tan by the time Bank Holiday finishes!
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Have anyone taken or have seen any pictures regarding today’s storm (supercell) over parts of East Anglia today, would be interesting to see the structure of that thing as it developed into a supercell?
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3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:
It says in your Logo "Amatuer Meteorologist and Storm Forecaster" Ben
Any chance you could put a little effort into a forecast for the next convective event ? It's all too easy to bash others that give their opinions on here. Remember they are forecasting when conditions look favourable with what they have on the table from the models they look at and it did to them warrant a Moderate with 800-1000 MU Cape and an active front coming in from the west.
Like I said hope to see you forecast the next chance of Thunder in the Uk and will look out for it and certainly WONT bash it if it goes wrong - Dan and Convective Weather like Torro and Nick here on Netweather do an amazing job and should be applauded IMHO
My post regarding the storm potential for the last few days is found here:
Because of other commitments I hadn't had the time to update on the potential, until Saturday morning when I was freed of my A-Level work.
To be clear, I haven't actually bashed any forecaster I continually go on about the uncertainty and the challenging nature of forecasting storms are what inspire me of these top forecasters regarding Dan, Nick and so on.
The only point I ever made was regarding ConvectiveWeather's post after having updated the MDT area to cover where I live, after we had finished with all our storm activity.
I regularly applaud those who put in the hard work and this is an example of me saying thanks towards CW.
And finally, that chart which you originally quoted me in was away of condensing various forecasters and simplifying it for those struggling to understand what areas would receive what storms at whatever time.
No hard feelings.
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2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:
That isn't strictly true because yes those revised warnings were too late for the early evening storms but some of those same areas then had further severe, quickly developing conditions after midnight.
I understand what you're saying, but did the following storms really warrant a moderate for our area? Whilst there was still some fairly frequent lightning, wasn't anything as significant as what was earlier witnessed. If after the earlier storms passed and someone told me that there was a 45% - 60% of seeing more lightning, I'd be complete and utterly surprised as by that point the favourable conditions were much further east.
Just my opinion and by good heart, but good to see another side to things.
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29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
No rain at all here in Darlo missed the lot of it
The MDT zone was pretty accurate further south
I love ConvectiveWeather but whilst the forecast was accurate for many areas, they moved the MDT zone westwards after we had received all our lightning across Bristol, Bath into Wiltshire?
Bit like the Met Office as people mentioned, issuing a yellow warning for rain when people already received all their rain and wasn’t getting anymore aha!
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Here's an overview of all the lightning strikes during our thundery period over the last 36 hours. We have totaled almost 12,000 strikes!
I really didn't expect too much from where I am in Bristol, but boy was I wrong can say I've used all my luck on this one; the loudest thunder I have EVER heard!
As a whole CS England done extremely well, whereas North Midlands/NW England unfortunately have done poorly compared to what could have happened.
It's quite interesting to note also, that it is incredible to witness such strong elevated storms this early in the season. Whilst elevated storms aren't affected by SST's, generally earlier in the season they cannot prolong their intensity. The last 36 hours couldn't have been more different, as a result of the favourable conditions above the boundary layer.
Can only be a good sign for the future... right?
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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Yes, the vertical shear is not particularly strong, 20-30 knots, but the mid-upper flow is fairly strong and, combined with forcing from a shortwave trough, enough to organise storms into clusters forming a few convective systems IMO.
Interesting, so effectively the the upper level winds have prevented the storm from "suffocating itself" but displacing the updrafts and downdraft, prolonging it's intensity and growth in size?
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Dunno about the lightning strike near Bristol, barely a cloud in the sky.