[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Different on the ICON 12z at 120h onwards  trough seems to be still attached to the diving low   will it make any difference??.

I feel like once the low does dive SE'wards, we may see *possibly* the Canadian vortex move towards the UK a little earlier. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ICON 12z not a great start, low is slightly deeper and a tad further North. Haven't reached the important frames yet tho.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Here is the 6pm and 9pm charts for the one just posted, there's no way it can go from one frame to the next looking like that on the GFS P.

Defo an error somewhere.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks more like 5 years ago todays, 12Z, date on bottom looks weird

Here is an example taken from the latest GFS P run from Tue 15th at 3 & 6pm.

It's not right.

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

4 days away.

Bizarrely GFS P precipitation charts on Netweather are broken and seem to show continuous precipitation over the whole map on various frames.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

9 minutes ago, ptow said:

Is -9 actually that cold though?  Wouldn’t that equate to 1-3 degrees above. 

850hpa is approx 1km up into the atmosphere. According to environmental lapse rate as temp declines by about 10’c per km. I’d expect temperatures to struggle to get above 1’c at a max, if there is snow cover temperatures wouldn’t get above freezing. All depends on air flow too which affects lapse rate.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Far more marginal towards the south...dolloping of the stuff to low levels further north, big totals in the hills in the north and Scotland (higher elevations).

What -8 uppers and thickness < 512 dam?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Check that out, the GFS P with a 1050mb high over Greenland, looking forward to this. Quicker route to cold bc of orientation of the high.

EDIT: 1055mb! Is a breathtaking run.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes so outside of the north east there is no chance of snow. It is extremely difficult / impossible to get snow wo sub - 5 without having deeply entrenched surface cold

Really depends on the surface cold too... If temperatures are at 1'c or so max, then snow is possible as long as uppers remain below zero.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3 looking good at T+156, -8 to -9C uppers should even be okay, by the coast...

Unfortunately the high sinks thereafter...  

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pressure is lowering over Iberia and Europe??

 

BFTP

I think we're just seeing a change in the orientation of the high.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

That is some serious WAA off the west coast of Greenland here's hoping the high pressure in the Atlantic joins with that in Greenland. Strengthened to a 1040mb high now.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

For the next few weeks I'm not too bothered about having really cold uppers at the moment. As long as we can have high pressure over us/nearby then the surface will naturally cool at this time of year and would expect the cold pool to grow over continental Europe.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Polar Bear said:

Stick to this regional thread.. SE is a bit more Landan Town and Garden of England folk. I work in Reading live in Newbury so you’ll be fine. 

It was sleeting earlier this eve in Reading, so prob still is. If you at the Uni they’ve amazing weather site there and not least the IEA department! 

Yeah a fellow course mate said it was sleeting too. Funny enough I am studying Meteorology at the Uni so I've had a good look round the weather facilities so far!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Now at Reading Uni it's difficult to know what regional chat I should be in. Nevertheless it is beginning to precipitate with a moderate intensity here, being on top floor of a halls of residence makes it difficult to see but looks to be a tad sleety.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Is that going to completely take over from the GFS? If so that's a shame because only last year I think it was that they added 1hr timeframes to them which is far more detailed and very useful IMO, GFS Para doesn't when I looked at it recently only the original 3hr timeframes, a step backwards? 

Whilst 1hr timescales are useful you're right. Ultimately how successful a model is, is dependent on its verification stats (a judge of how accurate they are when modelling the weather) and currently the GFS Para is verifying better than the main GFS model hence why the Para is going to take over.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

I agree with you for the east of the country, but further west, NW, Wales, and some higher areas in central England, well there's a fair chance of something white, almost certainly of the wet variety but hey ho, better than nothing.

I second this, I think many will be surprised. Along with 850hpa temps you also (from experience) can look at dew point (<0'c), thickness of the air and elevation etc.

The GFS shows fairly borderline 850hpa temps and dewpoints.

The ECMWF on the other hand maybe a degree or so lower than what the GFS is showing for both 850hpa and dew-point.

The higher resolution NetWx NMM model, whilst cannot view dew-points, the 850hpa's are also lower than -5'c and thickness of the air remains lower than 528 dam which is generally what you need for falling snow. Settling snow however is a different matter.

We shall see! 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

If we are going to be looking within the next 5 days on the GFS model, it's also a good idea to look back at what the GFS was modelling for today back on Sunday.

Sunday 6z and Today 6z: I must say the GFS has done exceptionally well within the 120hr timescale for the last few days. 

 

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards]

Shame to have missed the storm near Wells given I'm at university now! 

Few nice CB's here out of my window, lucky to be on the top floor in my hall!

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

On 02/08/2018 at 11:24, Ben Sainsbury said:

Looks like a possible plume event indicated by NMM & GFS for Tuesday into Wednesday, one to keep an eye on.

Never mind, the models looking a lot more progressive now and thundery breakdown looks unlikely.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

Looks like a possible plume event indicated by NMM & GFS for Tuesday into Wednesday, one to keep an eye on.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

Certainly not a bad looking feature.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

The showers coming in off the Bristol Channel seem to have relatively low max heights. Wouldn't seem a positive sign in regards to Thunder.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

6 minutes ago, Stormstalker said:

Could this reach the West Midlands and beyond 

Yes potentially, we'll have a better idea later.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

17 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Seems to be a squall line approaching SW Cornwall.

Yeah this is what we should be focusing on! Given the large DLS I would expect it to develop and become more organised in the next few hours whilst becoming more thundery.